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| 2010 Elections - Idaho House Races |
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| Saturday, July 10, 2010 |
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| Rating change: GOP leaning generics sway four more seats |
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Rather than updating the House generic poll adjustment with each generic congressional poll released, I have decided to periodically update it. Until the fall, probably mid-September,
I'll be calculating a new adjustment every two weeks. After that, I'll figure a new one each week until the election. For information on how this adjustment is calculated,
see EP methodology for the House formula definition and example usage.
A big change in the adjustment impacts the latest House projections, and the impact favors the GOP. With an average lead by the generic Republican candidate increasing to
2.3%, the adjustment grows from 0.3 points to 1.1. That's enough to push four more seats over to the red column in today's projections. They include AL-2, ID-1, IL-14 and
WV-1. These newly-rosy districts move the overall House projection to 226 Democrats and 205 Republicans. At 30,
the net seat gain is at a highwater mark so far this cycle for the GOP. Still, they would need 9 more to capture the majority in the House.
Filed under:
Ratings changes
House
AL House
ID House
IL House
WV House
posted by Scott Elliott at 9:03pm 07/10/10::
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| Thursday, July 8, 2010 |
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| Rating change: Two seats swap colors |
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Larry Sabato, one of my pundit panel for projecting House races, published updated ratings yesterday. The changes include 5 races which moved toward the GOP and 1 which moved
toward the Democrats. Also, CQ Politics, a second pundit panel member, changed their rating of the Idaho CD-1 race from Toss-up to Lean DEM. As a result of these updates,
the projected tally in the House remains unchanged. Idaho's new rating of Weak DEM Hold offsets Florida CD-8's flip to
Weak GOP Gain. Overall, projected GOP takeovers remain at 29 seats against just 3 projected DEM takeovers. Those numbers may very
well change drastically in the coming days, however, as Republican advantages in generic congressional polls are becoming more widespread. On top of that, Stuart Rothenberg will
be posting a new slate of House rating updates in a few days, and Charlie Cook, after posting an article entitled, "Hurricane GOP on the way," will probably be updating his soon as well.
Filed under:
Ratings changes
House
Idaho
ID House
Florida
FL House
posted by Scott Elliott at 8:17pm 07/08/10::
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| Thursday, May 27, 2010 |
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| Idaho primary results - race tracking initiated |
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Idaho became the setting last night of the latest Tea Party strike. Their support propelled Raul Labrador past establishment Republican Vaughn Ward in the first district.
Stuart Rothenberg doesn't seem to think Labrador has as good a chance to beat Democratic incumbent Walt Minnick as Ward would have had. He has already downgraded this race
from Tilt GOP to Lean DEM. That pundit change moves this seat back into the blue column. The new projected balance of power in the House now stands at
235 Democrats and 200 Republicans.
Senate
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Democratic Primary
Tom Sullivan |
Republican Primary
Mike Crapo - inc |
Governor
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Democratic Primary
Keith Allred |
Republican Primary
Butch Otter - inc |
District 1
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Democratic Primary
none |
Republican Primary
Raul Labrador |
District 2
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Democratic Primary
none |
Republican Primary
Mike Simpson - inc |
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Race tracking has been initiated on the Idaho state page.
Filed under:
Idaho
ID Senate
ID House
ID Governor
Ratings changes
posted by Scott Elliott at 12:25am 05/27/10::
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| Saturday, December 12, 2009 |
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| Fifty state tour - Idaho preview |
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You don't get much more conservative than Idaho, a state in which Mormons boast a 25% share of the population. George W. Bush carried the state twice by more than 35 points, and
John McCain won here last year by 25. Mike Crapo, the state's first Mormon senator, probably expends more effort raising funds for his GOP colleagues' re-election bids than on
his own race. And even a controversy like the toe-tapping scandal which led to political end-of-life for former GOP Senator Larry Craig could derail Republican dominance in Idaho
statewide elections.
Senate: Crapo, Idaho's new senior senator, has an enviable position few senators enjoy. When he first won election to the Senate back in 1998, his victory
was essentially a lifetime appointment. Barring a Craig-like mishap, Crapo will be on Capitol Hill until he decides to give it up. Already deputy whip, the hard working Crapo
may be in line for more powerful party leadership positions in the future. Next year's race has yet to firm up, but the only candidate currently in on the Democratic side is a 2004
presidential candidate from the Federalist Party. I'll go ahead and state the obvious. This race is a slam dunk Solid GOP Hold.
Governor: Sometimes in highly-partisan states, the Governor's Mansion is occupied by a member of the minority party. We've seen that several times over the last
decade in such liberal states as Massachusetts and Rhode Island as well as conservative ones like Wyoming and Kansas. Since 1990, that hasn't been the case in Idaho where
the last four cycles have produced Republican governors. Butch Otter is the current beneficiary of Idaho's conservative electorate, and his chances of losing next year are remote.
Given that he won an open seat race against a strong Democratic challenger in a blue wave election in 2006, his re-election should be much easier. Like Crapo in the Senate,
Otter will win next year in a Solid GOP Hold.
House District 1: Freshman Bill Sali lost this seat in 2008 to erratic behavior, ineffectiveness in the House, a blue wave and Democrat Walt Minnick. His
departure was noteworthy in this district which favored John McCain last year by over 20 points. Now the challenge lies with Minnick to duplicate his win without wind at his
back. Currently, all four pundits I use for House projections figure this race to be a tossup - not a good place for a freshman congressman in a less-than-receptive district eleven
months away from Election Day. Once the GOP settles on a candidate, I see this race moving to the red column. A large Republican victory is not out of the questions here,
but I'll start it off as a Weak GOP Gain.
You can find more information on the Idaho state page.
Next stop: Illinois
Filed under:
Idaho
ID Senate
ID House
ID Governor
posted by Scott Elliott at 4:08pm 12/12/09::
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