Back to the changes.  Republican Mark Steven Kirk is now projected to win over Democrat Alex Giannoulias in the race for Illinois' open Senate seat, while his partisan colleague, Bill Brady, now leads Democratic Governor Pat Quinn in his re-election bid.  These changes leave the projected balance of power in the Senate at 49 Democrats, 49 Republican and 2 Independents who caucus with the Democrats.  On the gubernatorial stat sheet, EP projects 28 Republicans, 21 Democrats, and 1 Independent.  That's a net gain of 8 seats in the Senate and 4 governorships for the GOP.



Filed under:  Ratings changes  Illinois  IL Senate  IL Governor 

As a result of incorporating actual polling numbers into the projections for Illinois, Mark Steven Kirk is now projected to win the Senate race.  Yep, that's the seventh seat now projected to go to the GOP in November and moves the projected Senate tally to 50 Democrats, 48 Republicans, and 2 Independents.

One more note: The GOP gubernatorial primary is still too close to call, so the projection for that race remains preliminary.  I'll update this post when I receive word that the nominee has been named.

Update:  State Senator Bill Brady is the GOP nominee for governor.



Filed under:  Primary results  Illinois  IL Senate  IL House  IL Governor 

Senate:  Pioneering African-American politician Roland Burris was appointed by then-governor Democrat Rod Blagojevich to fill the Senate seat vacated by Barack Obama.  His appointment was not without scandal.  Blagojevich was convicted afterward for trying to sell the seat to the highest bidder.  So shady were the circumstances surrounding Burris' appointment that Senate Democrats - Obama included - initially refused to seat him.  Eventually, Burris did gain official membership in the Senate, but, dogged by controversy and lacking the support of top Democrats, he has decided to forego a run for election in his own right.  His decision probably enhanced the Democrats' chances of keeping the seat in the blue column.  GOP hopes hinge on moderate Republican Mark Kirk, current U.S. Congressman from district 10.  On the Democratic side, State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias is the frontrunner.  Most pundits call this one a toss-up, and Election Projection lists it among the top ten most vulnerable Senate seats.  However, Obama's weight will loom large in this race, and the many Chicago pols in his circle will surely be intimately involved with it.  As a result, I have a hunch Illinois will stick to its blue genes and make this race a Weak DEM Hold.

Governor:  As lieutenant governor, Pat Quinn ascended to the Illinois governorship when Blagojevich was removed from office by a 59-0 Illinois Senate vote last January.  He is running in 2010 for a first full term while serving out the remainder of Blagojevich's term.  His strongest asset - besides the 'D' after his name - is his lack of closeness with his disgraced predecessor.  He and Blagojevich ended up on the same ticket solely by virtue of Illinois electoral procedure which pairs primary gubernatorial candidates by party affiliation in the general election.  According to the Washington Post, they have not spoken since August, 2007.  He should be able to win in November, though former gubernatorial candidate and state Attorney General Jim Ryan is proving to be a solid challenger.  Because of Ryan's early strong polling, I'll designate this race a Weak DEM Hold to start.

House District 10:  GOPer Mark Kirk has entered the race to replace Roland Burris in the Senate.  That choice leaves this seat open in this Democratic-leaning district which voted heavily for President Obama in 2008.  One of just a handful of seriously vulnerable GOP seats, District 10 should flip to blue in 2010.  The race to succeed Kirk could come down to two Illinois state representatives, Republican Elizabeth Coulson and Democrat Julie Hamos.  If that is the case, Election Projection gives the nod to Hamos.  If not, give it to whatever Democrat emerges the primary victor.  Either way, call it a sure Weak DEM Gain.

House District 14:  One other House district in Illinois figures to be competitive this year, though not as likely to switch parties.  That race is Bill Foster's bid for re-election in district 14.  This seat was once held by former Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert and is traditionally Republican-leaning.  Battling to get the chance to unseat Foster are Republicans Ethan Hastert, the ex-speaker's son, and Randy Hultgren, a state senator.  Election Projection starts this race as a Weak DEM Hold, but even a moderate red wave in November could easily push it over into red territory.

There's a bunch of information on the Illinois state page.  Be sure to check it out.

Next stop:  Indiana



Filed under:  Illinois  IL Senate  IL House  IL Governor