Another party-switcher on Saturday came about as a result of a (weird) poll testing the open seat of GOP Senate candidate Mark Steven Kirk in Illinois.  We Ask America published a survey in which Republican Bob Dold led Democrat Dan Seals by 11 points.  There is probably little doubt that Dold, if he leads at all, isn't nearly that far in the lead.  Like in the Senate race in West Virginia, future polls should give the challenger a much better shot at taking this seat.  For now, though, these two changes offset each other, leaving the projected House tally unchanged at 232 Republicans and 203 Democrats.



Filed under:  Ratings changes  House  Illinois  IL House  New Jersey  NJ House 

In the House, a Survey USA poll favoring Republican challenger David Harmer by 6 over Democrat Jerry McNerney in California's 11th district nets one more projected GOP gain there.  With so many House seats projected to go to the GOP, it's interesting that this is the first time one of California's 34 Democratic House seats has been among them.  The GOP gain now stands at a net 48 seats with 227 Republicans and 208 Democrats projected to take their place in the next Congress.



Filed under:  Ratings changes  Senate  House  Illinois  IL Senate  California  CA House 

The balance of power is projected to be 222 Republicans and 213 Democrats.  At 43, this update represents the largest net GOP gain in the lower chamber so far this election cycle.



Filed under:  Ratings changes  Georgia  GA House  Illinois  IL House  New York  NY House 

In Colorado, the fate of Democratic incumbent Michael Bennet hangs in the balance.  The partial-term senator is facing a strong challenge from Colorado House Speaker Andrew Romanoff.  Recent polling shows the race to be a toss-up, probably not a good sign for the Bennet.  On the Republican side, former Lt. Governor Jane Norton and DA Ken Buck are also in a toss-up contest.  Buck is the Tea Party favorite and may benefit from voter enthusiasm.

Moving from the Rockies to the Northeast, we check in on the Nutmeg State.  Connecticut has one of the more intriguing candidates of the cycle in wrestling executive Linda McMahon.  Though she received enough support at the Republican convention earlier this year to garner the Senate nomination, two other GOP hopefuls qualified for the primary ballot.  Polls show McMahon to be the prohibitive favorite, however.  In the gubernatorial race, close primary contests await in both parties.  Former Senate nominee Ned Lamont appears to be a few points ahead of Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy on the Democratic ballot, while former ambassador Republican Tom Foley's double-digit lead has shrunk considerably of late as Lt. Governor Michael Fedele has made a late charge.  Fedele now looks to be within striking distance though Foley still holds a small advantage.

The last primary to cover is in Minnesota.  Just this week, I had to change the preliminary projection on the governor's race from Weak GOP Hold to Weak DFL Gain because of former Senator Mark Dayton's large lead in the polls.  He should win the Democratic nomination without problem and looks poised to best presumptive GOP nominee Tom Emmer in the general.

Finally, Georgia Republicans will choose between Former GA Secretary of State Karen Handel and Former Congressman Nathan Deal to be their nominee in the gubernatorial race.  Former Governor Roy Barnes awaits the winner.  Recent polls have been neck-and-neck.  Who wins is anybody's guess right now, but general elections polls show Deal to be the stronger candidate against Barnes in November.



Filed under:  Colorado  Connecticut  Minnesota  Georgia  CO Senate  MN Governor  GA Governor 

Senate:  In 2004, Johnny Isakson, a man you might call a "politician's politician" for his propensity to compromise to get things done, breezed to election after Democrat-turned-Democratic-antagonist Zell Miller decided to retire.  Isakson's willingness to compromise hasn't always sat well with conservatives.  Among the legislation he had a hand in are the No Child Left Behind education bill, immigration reform and federal funding for embryonic stem cell research.  That's not a very strong conservative resume.  Still, he scores high with conservative special interest groups and has a lifetime 88.4 rating from the American Conservative Union as of the end of 2008.  His re-election bid will not be a sure thing, but the climate and the man should work together for a comfortable, albeit possibly close, victory.  It's a Mod GOP Hold to start, but I wouldn't be surprised to see it move to the strong category by Election Day.

Governor:  Eight years ago, in the Georgia GOP tidal wave election of 2002, Sonny Perdue beat incumbent Roy Barnes in perhaps the most unexpected upset of the year.  Four years later, the popular governor won re-election with almost 58% of the vote.  This year, term-limits bar him from another run and leave the race to succeed him wide-open.  Among the Democratic hopefuls is none other than Roy Barnes, himself.  Polls give him a decided advantage over the rest of the Democratic field.  On the GOP side, John Oxendine, Georgia's Insurance Commissioner, leads.  However, with Georgia Secretary of State Karen Handel and U.S. Representative Nathan Deal running as well, this could be one of the more exciting primary races of the cycle.  Given all these headliners, it's impossible to get a good feel for who will eventually win in November.  I'll lean on the political climate and Georgia's recent track record - Obama's 2008 coattails notwithstanding - and call this a Weak GOP Hold for now.

After several cycles with Democrats Jim Marshall and John Barrow listed among vulnerable House members, this year they appear to be relatively safe bets to win another term in Districts 8 and 12, respectively.  In fact, I'm not even tracking Barrow's race this time.

The Georgia state page is where to find all the details.  Don't miss it!

Next stop: Hawaii



Filed under:  Georgia  GA Senate  GA Governor