In the Senate, recent polling has recaptured another seat for the GOP, one that had just days ago slipped away from them in the projections.  Last week's Rasmussen poll testing the Illinois Senate race gave Democrat Alexi Giannoulias a 1-point lead over Republican Mark Kirk.  This week's edition shows some movement in Kirk's direction, giving him a 4-point advantage.  Replacing the old with the new paints this race red, moving it from Weak DEM Hold to Weak GOP Gain (Kirk now has a 1% lead in the projections).  The Senate count now stands at 49 Democrats, 49 Republicans and 2 Independents who caucus with the Democrats.



Filed under:  Ratings changes  Senate  Illinois  IL Senate  Governors  Florida  FL Governor 

In the House, a Survey USA poll favoring Republican challenger David Harmer by 6 over Democrat Jerry McNerney in California's 11th district nets one more projected GOP gain there.  With so many House seats projected to go to the GOP, it's interesting that this is the first time one of California's 34 Democratic House seats has been among them.  The GOP gain now stands at a net 48 seats with 227 Republicans and 208 Democrats projected to take their place in the next Congress.



Filed under:  Ratings changes  Senate  House  Illinois  IL Senate  California  CA House 

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Update:  Some more info on the West Virginia vacancy law.  From Karl...

Update2:  Politico.com has published an article about the WV succession law.



Filed under:  Senate  West Virginia  WV Senate 

Here are the states conducting primary or runoff elections today and their poll closing times.

Election Projection currently projects 8 Democratic Senate seats to go red this year, countered by Ohio which is projected to go the other way.  That's a net seven seat gain which adds up to just three short of 51 total and the majority.  With these new developments, if the GOP can win the eight seats plus just two of four between Ohio, California, Washington and Connecticut, the majority in the Senate in 2011 will belong to them.  That's great news, but Blumenthal and Murray - as well as Boxer in CA and Fisher in OH - still hold the advantage in their respective races.  Still, the more seats in play, the better the chances for the red team.



Filed under:  Senate  Washington  WA Senate 

Be sure to come back every day, Monday-Saturday, for daily poll reports and to see how new polling data effects the projections.



Filed under:  Ratings changes  Website administration  Senate  Illinois  IL Senate 

The Senate projected tally now stands at 50 Democrats, 48 Republicans and 2 Independents, a gain of 7 seats for the GOP.



Filed under:  Ratings changes  Senate  IL Senate 

On the governors list, two Democratic governorships saw significant jumps in their vulnerability.  Polls show Ohio incumbent Ted Strickland is facing serious problems from John Kasich's challenge.  He moves up four spots from 15th to 11th.  Iowa's Chet Culver also has some rough polling troubles, climbing three from 18th to 15th.  On the bright side for Democrats, Colorado looks less likely to switch now.  That race falls to 16th, down 3.  Illinois makes the list this time after a difficult primary test for incumbent Pat Quinn, debuting at number 19.  The open statehouse in Georgia drops off this latest edition.

I am waiting on Larry Sabato to published his updated House race ratings before redoing the House list.  I expect his new ratings out any day now.



Filed under:  Senate  House  Governors 

The Senate is different.  Even with a reduced target of 10 pick-ups for control, that mountain is imposing and scaling to the top of it improbable.  But hey, the election's still 9 months away, so why not scope it out and see what it would take?

Election Projection currently projects 6 seats switching to the GOP column.  North Dakota is a sure thing now that Byron Dorgan has retired and John Hoeven is running.  Beau Biden's recent decision not to run in Delaware gives Mike Castle an almost sure thing there.  That's two easy ones.  Eight to go.

Two other seats appear likely to go to the GOP - Arkansas and Nevada.  In Arkansas, Secretary of State Congressman John Boozman just announced he will run.  His candidacy probably moves Blanche Lincoln's seat from tilt takeover to lean takeover.  In Nevada, Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman - the one Democrat polling better than the two front-running Republicans in the race - opted to stay at the helm of Sin City.  His choice to avoid the Senate fray improves the likelihood of a GOP takeover there.  Now we're up to 4. Six more.

Pennsylvania follows Arkansas and Nevada on the takeover probability scale.  Pat Toomey's poll numbers have been remarkably strong for a Republican with views allegedly too conservative for the Keystone State.  After a long prosperous run over the last several cycles, Democrats may have out-stayed their welcome here.  In addition to Toomey's double-digit lead over Traitor Arlen Specter and Democrat Joe Sestak, Pennsylvania boasts no less than 5 Democratic House seats on Election Projection's hotly-contested list and 3 more on the potentially competitive list.  Six month's ago, Specter's only real challenge seemed to be from his own party (Sestak).  Now, it appears somewhat likely he will lose to the party he forsook.  This is takeover number 5 on our Senate mountain climb. We're halfway there.

Colorado and Illinois are next.  Both will be tough, though the Colorado seems the more winnable.  How winnable, at this stage, depends on whom you believe.  Rasmussen gives three Republicans leads varying from narrow to comfortable over Democratic incumbent Michael Bennet and his strongest Democratic challenger, Andrew Romanoff.  On the other hand, other polling firms show mixed results, the majority within the margin of error.  Election Projection has this seat in the red takeover column right now, so we'll call it number 6 in our quest.

Numbers 7 thru 10, starting in Illinois, get much more iffy.  Given the Democratic lean of Illinois and Barack Obama's native son status, I will be mildly surprised at a GOP win.  Still, polls show this race to be competitive, and given the right wind come November, it is entirely possible that a Republican could prevail.  Number 7.  Three more to go.

After Illinois, pickup opportunities become scarce.  Only California is what you might call competitive as things stand now.  Democrat Barbara Boxer won a third term in 2004 by a comfortable 20 points, but she is polling under 50% against just about everyone running against her on the GOP side.  As an incumbent, that's not an enviable position in January of an election year.  She is beatable in November.  Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina presents a decent threat to Boxer, polling just single-digits behind her.  More encouraging, though, is Congressman Tom Campbell's recent entry in the race.  He polls even better against the Democratic senator.  Either Fiorina or Campbell could ride a large GOP wave to an upset in this race.  If the GOP is to realize their extreme long shot attempt to take back the Senate, an upset here is almost a necessity.  Eight down, two left.

The last two almost certainly won't materialize without the candidacy of Republicans currently not running.  There are four seats which the right person could make competitive, but without them these races are strong to solid holds for the Democrats. They are Indiana, New York, Washington and Wisconsin.

Evan Bayh in Indiana is one senator whose seat got a closer look by the GOP in the wake of Scott Brown's Massachusetts triumph.  Former Congressman John Hostettler has already declared his challenge, but he's not the strongest candidate.  Bayh can weather a very large red wave against Hostettler.  Not so against Mike Pence.  One poll showed the third-ranking House Republican beating Bayh in late January.  Alas, perhaps salivating at a possible House majority, Pence has decided to stay put.  But the GOP's chances against Bayh do not begin and end with Pence; there's another who could give him a solid run - Indiana Secretary of State Todd Rokita.  A Bayh-Rokita test has not been conducted yet, but word is Rokita might win.

In New York, Kirsten Gillibrand is seeking election to the Senate in her own right this November.  The Empire State is strongly Democratic, and under normal circumstances against normal GOP fare, she will win easily.  However, in this GOP-friendly climate, someone like Rudy Giuliani or George Pataki could compete for her seat.  Giuliani is definitely out, and Pataki probably is.  Still, I wonder if Pataki could be convinced to run if a shot at majority standing awaited him.

Dino Rossi lost a razor-close gubernatorial election to Christine Gregoire in 2004 when hundreds of ballots were "discovered" in King County days after Election Day.  He lost again in the blue wave election of 2008.  Nevertheless, he has proved a strong statewide draw, and a poll recently showed him running close behind entrenched Democratic incumbent Patty Murray.  A Rossi run is not likely, and, should he go for it, a victory would be another upset.  But we're shooting for the stars here, so the possibility can't be ignored.

Finally, there's Wisconsin.  Russ Feingold is invulnerable here to any Republican save former Governor Tommy Thompson.  But like John Hoeven to Byron Dorgan in North Dakota, Thompson is Feingold's Achilles heel.  A Thompson challenge would be even money at this point, and, again, the possibility of sitting with the majority might be enough to entice him to run.

So here's what the GOP needs to regain the majority in the Senate.  First, they'll have to protect four vulnerable seats of their own (KY, MO, NH, OH).  Next, they'll have to take care of business in relatively easy Democratic states (ND, DE, AR, NV, PA).  Then, they'll have to pull upsets in Illinois and California.  And finally, they will be reliant on late entries to compete in four more states (IN, NY, WA, WI) and must win two of them.

It's an unlikely road to 51 seats, and everything will need to go in the GOP's favor to have a prayer.  But the events that have transpired so far, from Brown's victory to the decisions of Hoeven, Boozman, Biden, and Goodman, are what answered prayers are made of.

So, why not dream? And to Pataki, Rokita, Rossi and Thompson, I say "Hear that, boys? It's the Republican Senate majority calling."



Filed under:  Senate  2010 Elections 

So, the Pennsylvania Senate race becomes the 6 sixth projected GOP pickup - not counting Brown's victory in Massachusetts last week and moves the projected Senate tally to 51 Democrats, 47 Republicans and 2 Independents.  The next 5 takeovers needed to regain the Senate majority will be much more difficult to come by for the GOP.  Yes, there's a big red wave brewing but, unlike the House where the GOP has a decent shot at power, the odds of taking the Senate remain very low, probably around 10% in my estimation.



Filed under:  Ratings changes  Senate  Pennsylvania  PA Senate 

Then just yesterday, Mason Dixon released a poll showing her losing to two GOP challengers and barely keeping her head above water against three or four more.  Finally, this approval rating poll comes out today pegging her approval/disapproval at 38% to 56%.  Reaffirming a nationwide trend against Democrats, independents in the poll disapprove of her job performance by an overwhelming 69% to 24% margin.  Any sitting politician would be hard-pressed to win an election with those numbers.

While the pollster in the that survey is Republican, the last approval poll three months ago by the same outfit gave her a split 45/45 mark.  The tide is clearly moving against Lincoln.  As a result, Election Projection is changing the preliminary rating of this race from Mod DEM Hold to Weak GOP Gain. This change moves the projected Senate tally to 52 Democrats, 46 Republicans and 2 Independents, a net 5-seat gain in addition to Scott Brown's pick-up in Massachusetts this week.



Filed under:  Ratings changes  Senate  Arkansas  AR Senate 

That's 14 seats, 4 more than the GOP needs to take back the Senate.  Yes, I know, many of these races, unlike Massachusetts, will feature incumbents who will undoubtedly outperform one Martha Coakley, but the way the voters spoke in the Bay State on Tuesday, I don't believe any of these seats can be deemed completely safe.  That said, do I think the GOP will win the Senate in November?  No ... but it is not outside the realm of possibility if everything goes right for red team.

Obamacare:  Even though Nancy Pelosi announced today that the votes aren't there in the House to pass the Senate's version of Obamacare, I don't believe Brown's 41st vote and the stinging message it brings are enough to stop the Democrats from pursuing other avenues.  In the moments following the call for Scott Brown on Tuesday night, I listened to Juan Williams on Fox News.  His opinions on the ramifications of the election result found little concurrence among the others on the panel, but I felt he was right on.

Williams believes the Obama/Pelosi/Reid triumvirate will not let the Massachusetts Miracle deter them from driving Obamacare into law at all costs.  Rather than yielding to the obvious and overwhelming will and desire of the people, he asserted that they will use every measure to get health care passed.  Fighting against protests around the table, he explained why.  The Democratic leadership will refuse to face voters in November having done essentially nothing of substance to fulfill the great promise they felt Barack Obama's presidency represented.  They will wager their collective political futures to bring home the "accomplishment" of Obamacare.

I see and agree with the point he makes.  But I'll take it a little further.  Rather than choosing Obamacare over nothing as a condemned prisoner might choose a noose over starvation, they are resolved to give salesmanship and spin another opportunity to save them.  November is still a long way off, and the American electorate has proven its short attention span many times over.  If they pass Obamacare, they and their agents in the mainstream media will have 10 months to tout that all Americans now have health insurance, 10 months to produce juiced up numbers showing how they did it without extending the national debt, 10 months to paint Republicans as ogres and monsters for wanting to "take away" health insurance from the very ones who need it the most and can afford it the least.

For sure it will be a risky play, they probably reason, but it beats the alternative.  If they reach November empty-handed, they will have conceded utter defeat, leaving dozens of congressional seats to be swallowed up in the red tsunami now well-developed across the nation.  Those are the only options they see.  Give up now and lose everything, or try a Hail Mary passage of health care hoping they can convince us to catch it in the end zone when November rolls around.  Unfortunately for them, their liberal elitist minds are blind to the best play they have - work with Republicans to reform health care in a way that will be healthy for America, for her society, her economy and her liberty.



Filed under:  2010 Elections  Senate  Healthcare  Massachusetts  MA Senate 

There were 48 Democratic representatives elected in 2008 from districts that also voted for John McCain.  All of them must now be considered prime GOP pickup opportunities.  The GOP need win just 83% of them to regain control of the House.  That is a manageable task.  The voters in Massachusetts voted for a Republican senate candidate by 5% after voting for Barack Obama in 2008 by 26% - a 31-point swing.  In addition to what that says about the mood of the electorate, sitting Democrats, who now see the red tsunami on the horizon, will be much more inclined to retire than face its onslaught.  Moreover, prime GOP candidates waiting in the wings, contemplating challenging for blue seats, will see the chance to jump on that wave and decide to go for it.  Watch the Democratic retirements mount in the coming weeks and Republican recruitment soar.  The GOP may not win the House in 2010, but anyone who doesn't think it is in play was not watching Massachusetts last night.

I'll have more on ramifications of Brown's victory, including a look at the Senate and the future of Obamacare, tomorrow.



Filed under:  2010 Elections  Senate  House  Massachusetts  MA Senate 

Click here for election results starting shortly after 8pm EST.

I'll be posting thoughts and reactions here throughout the evening.  My first thought is how broad - even at this late hour - the range of possible outcomes is.  We could see a narrow Martha Coakley victory by two or three points, or Scott Brown could walk away with it by a dozen or more.

Update (8:00pm):  Polls are closing - if you haven't already voted and you're not in line in Massachusetts, you'll not be voting this time 'round.  Here we go...

Update (8:12pm):  Fox News reports high turnout in the Republican suburbs of Boston, not so much in the Democratic inner city.  Also, just heard late deciders broke 47-41 for Coakley, but 22% of Democrats voted for Brown.  My heart is racing - I hope it can hold on!

Update (8:23pm):  CNN - first returns reported - less than one percent - Brown 54%, Coakley 45%.  It doesn't mean much yet, but I'm thrilled that some votes have actually been counted and reported.

Update (8:30pm):  The race is tightening.  51-48% with 7% reporting.

Update (8:40pm):  Brown lead grows with 18% reporting - 52% to 47%.

Update (8:48pm):  Here's a better source for results. At 8:41pm, with 543/2168 precincts reporting (25%), Brown 52%, Coakley 47%.

Update (8:54pm):  Coakley back to within 5% with 39% reporting.  Wolf Blitzer just mentioned the votes so far are coming more from the west which is more Republican.  This one is not over yet.

Update (9:06pm):  We're well over halfway now.  60% reporting and Brown's lead is holding so far.  He's still up 53%-46%.  One note of caution - only 35% of Boston has reported.

Update (9:16pm):  A reader writes in "that conservative West is mighty blue while the east is very red," referring to this site's map.  He's right, but there are still almost 50% of the precincts in Boston yet to be counted.  Now 70% reporting statewide, and we're still stuck on 53%-46% (which is fine with me!)

Update (9:22pm):  The AP has called it.  Did Coakley just concede?

Update (9:45pm):  Last update on this post.  Well, the unimaginable has happened. Scott Brown (R) will be the next senator from Massachusetts. He didn't win by quite as much as I predicted, but, hey, I'm not complaining!  The final margin looks to be around 6% or two points less than my 7.9% forecast.  Still, 6% is a solid victory and spells much trouble for the Democrats in November.



Filed under:  Senate  Massachusetts  MA Senate 

But the momentum didn't stop when Brown got close.  Last week, polls started showing Brown ahead, some even giving him a healthy lead of 10 points or more.  And the energy, both anecdotal and measured, appeared to be all in Brown's corner.  All of a sudden, with just a couple days remaining, Brown looked like the favorite to win.  Now, on Election Day, the landscape has completely changed from late last year.  Instead of this being a sure victory for the Democrat, expectations in most circles are that Brown will win.

As expectations have changed, so have the stakes for the GOP.  Early on, even a close Brown defeat would have been seen as a repudiation of Democrats on Capitol Hill and their corrupt power management and a negative referendum on Obamcare.  But with expectations of a Brown victory the current conventional wisdom, a close Brown defeat becomes spinnable for the Democrats.

If Coakley wins, Democrats will be able to say that they took a Republican blindside - took their best shot - and emerged victorious all the same.  And after President Obama's visit here on Sunday, he'll be able to tout his "coming to the rescue" of an endangered Democrat.  As John Zogby said on a recent Sean Hannity radio show, a Coakley victory will enable Obama to use that message to assuage the fears of other Democrats contemplating retirement.  Of course, how effective they are in resonating that spin remains to be seen, and the GOP will for sure be touting any result today as an indication of voter angst with Obama and the Democrats.  However, the change of expectations will undoubtedly reduce the 'punch' that message would have had in the absence of Brown's major late-game surge.

Bottom line:  A Brown win today will be a huge victory for Republicans in so many ways.  It will energize the Republican base, facilitate GOP candidate recruitment, dampen Democratic recruitment, and most likely produce a greater number of Democratic retirements - if Massachusetts can fall, who can be considered safe? And that's just looking at the elections in November.  The GOP - and the nation, in this blogger's opinion - will benefit tangibly by regaining the power to filibuster the Democrats' agenda in the Senate.  Before the GOP enthusiasm tsunami hit the Bay State, a close loss would have still provided the GOP with much of these same advantages.  Now that Brown has become the de facto favorite, not so much.  The events of the last six weeks have transformed this race - as a matter of perception - from a no-lose situation to a win-lose battle that the GOP really needs to win.



Filed under:  Senate  Massachusetts  MA Senate 

Update:  It's 51-41!  The Merriman Group just released a poll showing Brown moving out to a 10-point lead!  There's way too much positive energy and positive polling data to deny that Brown has to be favored at this point.  Pinch me, I've got to be dreaming!  Hat tip: The Hedgehog Report



Filed under:  Senate  Massachusetts  MA Senate 

Hat tip:  David Wissing at The Hedgehog Report



Filed under:  Senate  Nevada  NV Senate 

In the Senate, I've pulled Ohio back into the GOP fold.  Rasmussen's recent polls in the state have shown GOPer Rob Portman to be moving out to a close but comfortable lead.  The jury is still out on 2010's version of Rasmussen polling, and some have questioned Scott's methodology (Scott Rasmussen, that is).  Frankly, I question it some myself - one reason why I've held out until now to change that race.

Be sure to check out the lists of vulnerable Senate and House seats.  They have been updated today as well.



Filed under:  2010 Elections  Senate  House 

Republicans should do well in November.  If a few more surprise retirements like this crop up, they could do very, very well.



Filed under:  Senate  ND Senate  North Dakota 

• Senate:  9 total, 6 Republicans, 3 Democrats
• House:  22 total, 12 Republicans, 10 Democrats
• Governors:  20 total, 10 Republicans, 10 Democrats

Blunt has been a member of the United States House of Representatives since 1997 and, as minority whip, has held the number two GOP position in the House.  His son, Matt, recently served as Missouri's governor.  Carnahan is Missouri's current Secretary of State and daughter of Mel Carnahan, a former governor who was tragically killed while campaigning for a senate seat and Jean Carnahan, who was appointed senator after her husband won that election posthumously.

With two strong candidates in a battleground state known for close statewide elections, Missouri's senate contest next year should be fun to watch.  Some folks have listed it as one of the more likely senate seats to switch hands next November - and well it may - but to The Blogging Caesar, this race will be true tossup all the way to Election Day.



Filed under:  Senate  Missouri  MO Senate