Combine Sabato's changes and Ayers/McHenry's polls, and mix in a new ten-count of rating changes from Charlie Cook, and you have the perfect recipe for the first projected GOP House majority since early 2006.  Five new seats are colored red in today's EP update, two more than the GOP needs to demote Speaker Nancy Pelosi and regain control of the House.

On the weight of Ayers' polling, two seats in Arizona (CD-1 and CD-5) move from Weak DEM Hold to Weak GOP Gain.  Sabato's update to the SC-5 race produces the same outcome, and rolling off an old poll favoring incumbent Democrat Baron Hill in Indiana's 9th district switches that race as well.  Rounding out the changes, Pennsylvania CD-8 moves to red thanks to a GOP poll giving Michael Fitzpatrick a 7-point lead over incumbent Patrick Murphy.

The new House tally stands at 220 Republicans and 215 Democrats.  That's a net gain of 41 seats.  By the way, Sabato and Cook offered 39 rating changes, taken together.  Every one of them favored the Republicans.  This wave that is already of tidal proportions continues to strengthen.



Filed under:  Ratings changes  AZ House  IN House  PA House  SC House 

Another exit just announced today will add yet another to the Republican count in the House.  Freshman Democratic Congressman Eric Massa will not defend his seat in New York's 29th district.  Massa won the seat two years ago in a blue wave election.  With the political wind in his face, he was headed for a difficult re-election bid this year.  Now that he's taking the power of incumbency away with him, Republicans should be able to recover this lost seat.

These two changes move the Republicans closer to a House majority.  Though still a good way off according to Election Projection, they now are projected to win 24 Democratic seats against just 2 losses.  That net 22-seat gain brings the projected tally to 235 Democrats and 200 Republicans.



Filed under:  Ratings changes  Indiana  IN House  New York  NY House 

Senate:  Evan Bayh is one Democrat who has found a way to win here without a strong Democratic wind blowing.  Now seeking his third term, Bayh won his first term in 1998, hardly a Democrat wave election, and was re-elected in 2004, at the same time Bush was garnering three-fifths of the presidential vote in the state.  His re-election is not what I would consider set in stone, but he looks awfully good even in an increasingly-Republican climate.  John Hostettler, a former congressman from district 8 who lost his seat in a landslide back in 2006, is running on the GOP side.  He has a reputation as a lazy campaigner and would probably not see north of 45% against Bayh.  His main competition for the nomination is Marlin Stutzman, an Indiana state senator.  Regardless of who wins the right to face Bayh, this seat will be a Solid DEM Hold.

House District 9:  Democrat Baron Hill is a veteran of Indiana politics.  After losing his seat to Mike Sodrel in 2004, he stormed back to recapture it in 2006's rematch.  Two years later, round three wasn't even close with Hill trouncing Sodrel 58-38.  This year, the climate is quite a bit different.  As a result, the pundits I track see Hill in a somewhat competitive battle once again.  It remains to be seen if the 2010 version of The Battle for District 9 tightens up into a truly competitive contest, but for now, I see it as only moderately interesting.  Call it a Mod DEM Hold.

The rest of EP's treasure trove of information on the Hoosier state is available in the Indiana state page.

Next stop:  Iowa



Filed under:  Indiana  IN Senate  IN House