Senate:  Senior Senator Sam Brownback decided to come back home, so to speak, by announcing his candidacy to succeed Parkinson, who is not running, in Topeka.  His exit creates one of the most easily held open seats you'll ever see.  Political lightweights Stanley Wiles and Charles Schollenberger are two token Democrats either running or contemplating a run.  The real race inside this race, however, will be the GOP primary contest between two sitting congressmen.  Jerry Moran and Todd Tiahrt represent the 1st and 4th districts, respectively.  Both are similar in age, ideology and political experience.  Of the two, Tiahrt is the more conservative based on voting records while Moran represents a more conservative district.  Moran started the race with more cash, but Tiahrt's involvement in Kansas' right-to-life organizations should afford him a more statewide appeal.  In the end, the winner of this battle will be Kansas' next senator.  My hunch is that Tiahrt will win a very close vote and go on to win a very Solid GOP Hold in November.

Governor:  Another rarity, a sure takeover, awaits heir-apparent Brownback in Kansas' statehouse race.  Even though Brownback's approval numbers are not what you might call stellar (49% approval in the latest SurveyUSA poll), he is vastly favored over any Kansas Democrat, save perhaps Sebelius, and he won re-election to the Senate in 2004 with nearly 70% of the vote.  To be sure, Sebelius absence from the gubernatorial playing field sweetens the outlook for Borwnback, but even she probably would not have been able to keep him from becoming governor of Kansas at some point.  With her out of the picture, I'm starting this race off as a Strong GOP Gain, a rating that could very well move into the solid territory by Election Day.

House District 3:  Democrat Dennis Moore, whose 5 congressional election victories became more one-sided as time passed, has decided to step down.  That decision has put the Democrats lone Kansas House seat in dire straits.  In this Republican oriented climate, Moore would have been vulnerable to a solid GOP nominee.  Without him on the ballot, this seat becomes a prime takeover target.  Four Republicans with state government resumes have lined up to challenge for the GOP nomination, as have a few other folks.  Since Moore's decision came late last year, no Democrats have formally announced a run though several are mentioned as potential candidates.  Charlie Cook rates this race a toss-up and Stuart Rothenberg gives an early and very slight advantage to the GOP.  I'll go with Rothenberg's assessment and rate it a Weak GOP Gain.

More information is available on the Kansas state page.  Be sure to check it out.

Next stop:  Kentucky



Filed under:  Kansas  KS Senate  KS House  KS Governor