Here are the primary winners.

Also capturing the attention of political observers are Kentucky's Senate primaries.  Both parties are holding intriguing matches to decide who will battle for outgoing Republican Senator Jim Bunning's seat.  Democrats will choose between Lt. Governor Daniel Mongiardo and Attorney General Jack Conway.  A few weeks ago, Mongiardo appeared to be cruising to the nomination, leading by 15 points or more in the polls.  That lead has shrunk to almost nothing in recent days, however, and Election Day will dawn with Conway having a legitimate shot at a stunning come-from-behind victory.

On the Republican ballot, the son of Texas congressman and former GOP presidential candidate Ron Paul has moved well ahead of Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson.  Rand Paul now seems set to earn the nomination tomorrow.  Though both Grayson and Paul currently lead either Democrat in the polls, Grayson's margins are more substantial, a fact that re-enforces doubts about Paul in some Republican circles.  Time will tell how he connects with a general election electorate once the primaries have past.

Rounding out tomorrow's primary schedule is Oregon.  The Democratic gubernatorial race features two prominent Oregon politicians in Secretary of State Bill Bradbury and former Governor John Kitzhaber.  The winner of that battle will enter the general election campaign as a decided favorite to succeed term-limited Democratic Governor Ted Kulongowski.

Sometime tomorrow I post links to primary results so you can watch the returns come in.  For now, let me venture a few predictions.  In Pennsylvania, I predict Arlen Specter's party-switching gambit will end in defeat and Joe Sestak will advance to face Pat Toomey in November.  In PA-12, I have to give the slightest of edges to Democrat Mark Critz (Election Projection's margin of victory:  0.5%).  Turnout at the top of the ballot will propel Critz to a narrow win over Republican Tim Burns.  In Arkansas, Blanche Lincoln will survive by a margin you can fit on one hand.  Finally, it'll be Rand Paul vs. Dan Mongiardo in Kentucky as Conway's frantic comeback bid falls just short.

I have to add that I'm least confident about the PA-12 prediction.  Given the difficulty of polling House races in general and measuring turnout in this district specifically, projecting a winner can be little more than guesswork.  If Burns does pull it out, I think the ramifications for November will be great.  A Burns victory despite heavy get-out-the-vote motivation provided by the Specter/Sestak matchup will indicate just how much the enthusiasm gap truly favors the GOP.

Update:  You can follow primary election returns here.  Polls close in Kentucky at 6pm, in Pennsylvania at 8pm, in Arkansas at 8:30pm and in Oregon at 10pm.  (All times EDT)



Filed under:  Arkansas  Kentucky  Oregon  Pennsylvania  PA Senate  PA House  KY Senate 

For the Republicans, rising-star Secretary of State Trey Grayson is attempting to parlay his precocious statewide victory in 2003 into a seat on Capitol Hill.  When he won that race at 29 years of age, he became the youngest secretary of state in the nation.  Now 37, he'll be the youngest sitting senator in Washington if he wins again this year.  That's a big if.  Opposing him in the GOP primary is Rand Paul, son of libertarian-leaning congressman and 2008 presidential candidate Ron Paul.  Many were saying early on that Paul's like-father-like-son views would not sit well with Kentucky Republicans socially conservative streak.  However, he has experienced a slow and steady rise in both primary and general election polls over the last few months, and he now appears to be the odds-on favorite to win the seat.  In this current climate, either Republican would probably win by a small margin, so I'll start this race off as a Weak GOP Hold.

Check out much more information on the Bluegrass State on Election Projection's Kentucky state page.

Next stop:  Louisiana



Filed under:  Kentucky  KY Senate