Senate:  It's been six years since Vitter succeeded popular outgoing Democratic Senator John Breaux, and this year he's up for re-election for the first time.  Last year as races across the nation were shaping up, Vitter seemed quite vulnerable.  Fresh off the heels of a scandal involving a DC madam, Vitter's outlook was less than enviable.  However, since a public apology with his wife by his side, Vitter's fortunes have improved.  And last month, Republican Secretary of State Jay Dardenne announced his decision not to stage a primary run against Vitter, eliminating perhaps the biggest obstacle in the incumbent's path to a second term.  On the Democratic side, Congressman Charlie Melancon, the state's lone House Democrat, is running to unseat Vitter.  Recent polls show him well behind.  The race is currently a Mod GOP Hold, but could move into more secure territory for Vitter by November.

House District 2:  Freshman Republican incumbent Joseph Cao is hands down the most vulnerable congressman in the country.  Elected in 2008 in a district which sports a 60% African-American populace, Cao benefited from the criminal activities of former incumbent William Jefferson and from the December time slot in which the election was held.  Essentially, Cao's first term will be, in all likelihood, the only term by a Republican in this district in my lifetime.  Due to the strange rating of toss-up offered by Charlie Cook, this race is listed as a Mod DEM Gain.  In reality, a strong or even solid rating in favor of the Democrats is probably more appropriate.

House District 3:  Just as CD-2 is sure to go back to the Democrats in November, CD-3 is a GOP-leaning district itching to switch the other way.  Democrat Charlie Melancon is running for Senate.  His departure opens the door for what should be a relatively easy GOP pick-up.  Currently five folks are running on the GOP side, including two Louisiana state legislators.  So far on the Democratic side, several are looking at the race but only Ravi Sangisetty, an attorney, has declared a run.  Again, this should be low-hanging fruit for the GOP.  The race probably won't be very close when all the votes are counted, but it starts off at Election Projection as a Weak GOP Gain.

A lot more information can be had at the Louisiana state page.  Be sure to check it out.

Next stop: Maine



Filed under:  Louisiana  LA Senate  LA House