In Massachusetts, a three-way race for governor is set.  Democratic incumbent Deval Patrick, Republican Charlie Baker and Independent Tim Cahill will do battle.  Down-ballot, there is one House district rated as mildly competitive this year.  In the Bay State, that alone is noteworthy.  Democrat Bill Delahunt's decision to forego another term leaves two primary nominating battles worth watching.  On the Democratic side, Bill Keating and Robert O'Leary are doing battle while four folks are on the Republican primary ballot.  I could find no polling on the race, so only time will tell which two candidates emerge.

Rhode Island's gubernatorial race represents the best opportunity for an independent to gain a statehouse.  Former Republican Senator Lincoln Chafee leads a close three-way race.  His two partisan opponents will be decided today.  Republican John Robitaille led Victor Moffitt by a large margin in a July poll.  On the Democratic side, State Treasurer Frank Caprio holds the advantage over State Attorney General Patrick Lynch - at least according to polls taken very early in the cycle.

You can watch the election returns here as they come in this evening.



Filed under:  Maryland  MD Governor  Massachusetts  Massachusetts  MA House  Rhode Island  RI Governor 

Governor:  Deval Patrick, Massachusetts' first African-American governor, has been struggling to gain the approval of his constituents.  Polls show him under 40% approval, and he faces strong challenges to his re-election bid from two different sources.  First, Republicans, who have shown the ability in Mitt Romney and William Weld to win the statehouse here over the last two decades despite Massachusetts' overwhelmingly Democratic-leaning electorate, got the candidate they wanted in Charlie Baker (though he'll have to defeat Christy Mihos, a 2006 independent gubernatorial candidate, to secure the nomination).  Second, Cahill's decision to skip the Democratic primary path and run as an independent makes this a race in which any of the three men could win.  Most rate the contest a toss-up with a slight DEM lean.  That's my sentiments at this point, so I'm rating Patrick a Weak DEM Hold.

House:  While none of Massachusetts House districts appears competitive right now, I do think a note of explanation in the wake of Brown's victory is in order.  Republicans are pointing to the fact that Brown carried 6 of 9 districts in the state as evidence that the GOP could make a run at several of them in November.  That optimism ignores the special circumstances surrounding Brown remarkable and rapid rise to victory.  First, he sought an open seat against a poor Democratic candidate rather than a facing a strong incumbent as would be the case for GOP congressional candidates, save perhaps the nominee in district 10 where a soon-to-come retirement announcement from William Delahunt may be on the horizon.  Second, while there is indeed a strong GOP wind blowing across the nation, the run-up to Massachusetts' special election on January 19th witnessed a singular and hard-to-duplicate rush of momentum that carried Brown to victory.  That type of perfect storm will most likely not provide an encore in the state on Election Day in November.  Nevertheless, I will be watching the Bay State for signs of competitive House races shaping up - something I haven't done in previous election cycles.

Get the rest of the scoop on the Massachusetts state page.

Next stop: Michigan



Filed under:  Massachusetts  MA Governor  MA House