Senate:  Barbara Mikulski is the longest-serving senator among the upper chamber's 17 women.  Her re-election this year is practically certain.  Since winning the seat in 1986 by a 22-point margin, Mikulski's percentage of the vote in three subsequent elections was 71, 71 and 65.  After winning a fifth term in November, Mikulski will become the longest serving woman in Senate history.  Attorney Jim Rutledge and County Commissioner Eric Wargotz are vying to become the token GOP nominee.  This race is a no-brainer, a Solid DEM Hold.

Governor:  Martin O'Malley won the 2006 governor's race with 53% of the vote, ousting one-term Republican Bob Ehrlich.  O'Malley benefited from a Democratic mood that year just as Ehrlich had benefited by a Republican mood four years earlier.  This year, since the mood has flip-flopped back toward the GOP, a O'Malley/Ehrlich rematch would be an interesting race whose outcome would probably be considered a toss-up at this point.  However, Ehrlich has not declared his candidacy in the race.  Signs point to Ehrlich's interest in running, and former Maryland Secretary of Appointments Larry Hogan stepped aside earlier this month to clear the way for the former governor.  With Ehrlich in, this race would be much closer than the Strong DEM Hold rating currently projected here.

House District 1:  Frank Kratovil, Jr. swiped this seat - rated R+13 by Charlie Cook - from the GOP in 2008 after a brutal primary saw the incumbent Republican Wayne Gilchrest defeated by then-state-senator Andy Harris.  That primary slugfest cost Republicans the seat when Kratovil bested Harris by a single point in November.  Harris is back this year to try again.  In such a Republican-leaning district in a Republican year, this is seat should be easy for the GOP to recover.  However, ill-feelings against Harris by many moderate Republicans in the district - including the former congressman - may handicap him in the general election.  Another Republican might be better suited to run here.  For now, though, given such a strong GOP-tilt in the district, I'm projecting a Weak GOP Gain.

All the rest of the races and much more stuff is available on the Maryland state page.

Next stop: Massachusetts



Filed under:  Maryland  MD Senate  MD House  MD Governor