In Arizona, Romney's convincing 20-point victory was not unexpected, though the overwhelming margin was a bit of a surprise.  Until mid-February, Romney led Santorum by a couple dozen and appeared set to breeze to the win there.  Then, overnight, polls showed Santorum closing the gap dramatically.  At one point, Romney's average lead in the polls had dwindled to just 5 points.  That was a week ago.  At that point, Romney once again regained the upper hand in the polls, and his projected victory steadily swelled to the low double-digits.  The trend was definitely in his favor, but a 20-point margin is well outside where the aggregate stood when the polls opened yesterday.

The bottom line from yesterday: Romney confirmed his front runner status by taking both primaries, and any chance of him losing the nomination now lies with Santorum's performance in Ohio on Super Tuesday in six days.  Currently, Santorum's lead there is in the high single digits.  Expect that margin to tighten on the wings of Romney's victories last night.  If Romney can overtake Santorum in the Buckeye state, call it a night and turn out the lights.  It'll be time for Republicans to concentrate on beating Obama.



Filed under:  2012 Presidential Election  2012 GOP Primaries  Arizona 2012  AZ President 2012  Michigan 2012  MI President 2012  2012 Super Tuesday 

• Arizona Primary Results
• Michigan Primary Results

But, if you've read me for long, you know I can't resist picking a winner even in the closest of toss-ups.  So here we go again.

Michigan Republican Primary Predictions

• Mitt Romney - 39%
• Rick Santorum - 38%
• Ron Paul - 13%
• Newt Gingrich - 10%

Arizona Republican Primary Predictions

• Mitt Romney - 44%
• Rick Santorum - 28%
• Newt Gingrich - 18%
• Ron Paul - 10%

Check back later for links to the Arizona and Michigan primary results.



Filed under:  2012 Presidential Election  2012 GOP Primaries  Arizona 2012  AZ President 2012  Michigan 2012  MI President 2012 

Here are the latest poll results from the Great Lakes state. Tune in later this evening for Election Projection's predictions of this all-important primary battle.

Over the last several days, Santorum's momentum appears to have stalled, and Romney looks to be on the rise again. In Arizona, where Santorum cut a 30-point lead to just 5 on Feb 20, Romney has moved out to a double-digit lead in the latest three polls.

What's makes next Tuesday's race even more intriguing is that Michigan is Mitt Romney's home state.  If Santorum can defeat him there, that would bode well for a very competitive atmosphere for the rest of the primaries.  Election Projection still stands behind the prediction that Romney will be the nominee, but a Santorum victory in the Great Lakes State on February 28 would make me question whether that prediction was premature.



Filed under:  2012 GOP Primaries  Rick Santorum  Mitt Romney  Michigan 2012  MI President 2012 

Reapportionment and Redistricting:  Even before the last decade saw less and less people calling Michigan home, the state's population share has long been in decline.  To illustrate the point, Michigan's House membership starting in 2013 will be 14.  That's down one as a result of the 2010 census, but down 5 from a high of 19 during the 1960's and 70's.  Quite a drop in representation, I'd say.  Moreover, this cycle's reduction comes at a good time for the GOP.

Capitalizing on the red wave election of 2010, Republicans now own sole control over the redistricting process by virtue of them holding the governorship and the majorities in the both chambers of the state legislature - and for good measure, they also control Michigan's State Supreme Court.  With their unbridled authority, Republicans have set out to bolster GOP incumbents while combining two Democratic districts.  The resulting map should take one of the Democrats 6 seats away and preserve all 9 of the current Republican seats.

President:  President Obama won the battleground state of Michigan in 2008.  At least, that's what the state was billed as.  His margin of victory, though, was nearly 17 points - hardly much of a battle!  After two relatively close 5-point Democratic victories in 2000 and 2004, Michigan seemed to be trending drastically toward the blue.  But 2010 painted a different picture.  The GOP did very well here, taking the statehouse, two House seats and control of the Michigan House of Representatives.  Do those successes land Michigan once again in the battleground category?  Perhaps, but I'm still giving Obama a nice-sized advantage here.  Call it a Mod DEM Hold.

Senate:  Democratic Senator Debbie Stabenow is up for a third term in 2012.  Several Republicans have signed up for a chance to run against her.  The most prominent of the lot is former Congressman Peter Hoekstra.  While he should be able to give Stabenow a good challenge, especially considering the GOP's performance in 2010, the incumbent will benefit from the increased turnout of a presidential election.  This race starts off as a Mod DEM Hold, but keep an eye on it.  With the slightest of winds at the Republican nominee's back, Stabenow could become eminently vulnerable.

Michigan's other senator, 6-term Democrat Carl Levin, is up for re-election in 2014.

Governor:  Republican Rick Snyder won a crowded primary in 2010 and then prevailed in the general election to succeed term-limited Democratic Governor Jennifer Granholm.  He'll be up for a second term in 2014.

House:  Republicans will likely hold all nine of the seats currently in their fold.  Three seats, District 1, District 7 and District 11, could become competitive depending on how the political winds blow as we move forward.  Democrats will likely hold all the seats they currently hold - except for the one lost to reapportionment, of course.  The partisan makeup of Michigan's delegation would then change from 9-6 to 9-5 in favor of the red team.

You'll find all the details on the Michigan state page.

Next stop:  Minnesota



Filed under:  Michigan 2012  MI President 2012  MI Senate 2012  MI House 2012