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  Politics and Elections
   2012 Elections - Michigan Races
Wednesday, February 29, 2012

Romney takes two, Arizona and Michigan primary results
Last night saw Mitt Romney fend off a strong challenge in Michigan by Rick Santorum.  After falling well behind a couple weeks out from this critical Republican nomination battle, Romney more than made up lost ground over the last few days to forge a close but significant win in his native state.  Even though he'll largely split the delegates there due to Michigan's proportional allotment system, the momentum he'll enjoy from the victory is no small thing.  Being on the top line of the results affords him the chance to maintain, and even solidify, his front runner status.  Had he not prevailed, Santorum would have stolen the news cycle, and Romney would have been forced to go on the defensive.  Instead, Romney will be able to continue to bash Obama rather than focusing solely on his primary opponents.  To that point, Romney's victory speech last night included a plethora of digs at the President while excluding completely any mention of Santorum, Gingrich or Paul.

In Arizona, Romney's convincing 20-point victory was not unexpected, though the overwhelming margin was a bit of a surprise.  Until mid-February, Romney led Santorum by a couple dozen and appeared set to breeze to the win there.  Then, overnight, polls showed Santorum closing the gap dramatically.  At one point, Romney's average lead in the polls had dwindled to just 5 points.  That was a week ago.  At that point, Romney once again regained the upper hand in the polls, and his projected victory steadily swelled to the low double-digits.  The trend was definitely in his favor, but a 20-point margin is well outside where the aggregate stood when the polls opened yesterday.

The bottom line from yesterday: Romney confirmed his front runner status by taking both primaries, and any chance of him losing the nomination now lies with Santorum's performance in Ohio on Super Tuesday in six days.  Currently, Santorum's lead there is in the high single digits.  Expect that margin to tighten on the wings of Romney's victories last night.  If Romney can overtake Santorum in the Buckeye state, call it a night and turn out the lights.  It'll be time for Republicans to concentrate on beating Obama.

Filed under:  2012 Presidential Election  2012 GOP Primaries  Arizona 2012  AZ President 2012  Michigan 2012  MI President 2012  2012 Super Tuesday 

posted by Scott Elliott at 9:27am 02/29/12::
Tuesday, February 28, 2012
Michigan and Arizona Republican primary election results
Starting sometime after polls close tonight you can track the returns in Arizona and Michigan at the following links. Polls close in Arizona at 9pm EST. Polls close in Michigan at 8pm EST.

Filed under:  2012 Presidential Election  2012 GOP Primaries  Arizona 2012  AZ President 2012  Michigan 2012  MI President 2012 

posted by Scott Elliott at 9:51am 02/28/12::
Monday, February 27, 2012
Michigan and Arizona Republican primary predictions
Here are Election Projection's predictions for tomorrow's Republican primary elections in Michigan and Arizona.  The Grand Canyon state is easy to peg - Romney will win easily, of course.  The Great Lakes state is more difficult to predict.  Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum have gone back and forth over the last couple weeks, and the very latest trend seems to be settling squarely on the "it's anybody's game" spot.

But, if you've read me for long, you know I can't resist picking a winner even in the closest of toss-ups.  So here we go again.

Michigan Republican Primary Predictions

  • Mitt Romney - 39%
  • Rick Santorum - 38%
  • Ron Paul - 13%
  • Newt Gingrich - 10%

Arizona Republican Primary Predictions

  • Mitt Romney - 44%
  • Rick Santorum - 28%
  • Newt Gingrich - 18%
  • Ron Paul - 10%

Check back later for links to the Arizona and Michigan primary results.

Filed under:  2012 Presidential Election  2012 GOP Primaries  Arizona 2012  AZ President 2012  Michigan 2012  MI President 2012 

posted by Scott Elliott at 10:35pm 02/27/12::
Latest Michigan Republican primary polls
Tomorrow's Republican presidential primary in Michigan may be a critical juncture in the race for the nomination.  Rick Santorum overcame a large deficit here earlier in the process to pull in front of Mitt Romney.  Lately, however, Romney's poll numbers have improved, and now it looks like he may be back in front by the slimmest of margins.  This race, which is effectively too close to call, is very important to Mitt Romney if he is to hold onto his frontrunner status.  And since this is his home state, he stands to lose much more if he doesn't prevail than Santorum will if he does.

Here are the latest poll results from the Great Lakes state. Tune in later this evening for Election Projection's predictions of this all-important primary battle.

Michigan Republican Primary Polls
Poll Dates Romney Santorum Spread
Average 37.3 35.8 Romney +1.5
Rasmussen 2/26 38 36 Romney +2
Rosetta Stone 2/26 35 37 Santorum +2
PPP (D) 2/26 39 37 Romney +2
WeAskAmerica 2/26 37 33 Romney +4
Polling data thanks to RealClearPolitics.com

Filed under:  2012 Presidential Election  2012 GOP Primaries  Michigan 2012  MI President 2012 

posted by Scott Elliott at 7:33pm 02/27/12::
Saturday, February 25, 2012
GOP presidential nomination: Santorum's momentum stalls in Michigan, Arizona
Mitt Romney has seen his frontrunner status severely challenged by Rick Santorum recently.  Polls for upcoming primary battles last week showed Santorum gaining ground on him in Arizona and passing him in Michigan. The latter is considered to be pivotal for Romney since it is his home state.

Over the last several days, Santorum's momentum appears to have stalled, and Romney looks to be on the rise again. In Arizona, where Santorum cut a 30-point lead to just 5 on Feb 20, Romney has moved out to a double-digit lead in the latest three polls.

Arizona Republican Primary Polls
Poll Dates Romney Santorum Spread
Average 38.8 29.6 Romney +9.2
Rasmussen 2/23-2/23 42 29 Romney +13
NBC/Marist 2/19-2/20 43 27 Romney +16
WeAskAmerica 2/19-2/20 37 27 Romney +10
CNN/Time 2/17-2/20 36 32 Romney +4
PPP (D) 2/17-2/19 36 33 Romney +3
In Michigan, the reversal is even more striking because Santorum's rise there actually put him ahead by 9 points just 10 days ago. Now, Romney has moved back in front by a couple points, and, if the trends continue this weekend and into Monday, he should see that lead extended to several points by primary election day on Tuesday.
Michigan Republican Primary Polls
Poll Dates Romney Santorum Spread
Average 35.2 33.6 Romney +1.6
Rasmussen 2/23-2/23 40 34 Romney +6
Rosetta Stone 2/13-2/23 36 33 Romney +3
DFP/WXYZ 2/18-2/21 34 37 Romney +3
NBC/Marist 2/19-2/20 37 35 Romney +2
WeAskAmerica 2/19-2/19 29 29 Tie
Polling data thanks to RealClearPolitics.com

Filed under:  2012 GOP Primaries  Arizona 2012  AZ President 2012  Michigan 2012  MI President 2012  Mitt Romney  Rick Santorum 

posted by Scott Elliott at 12:08pm 02/25/12::
Monday, February 20, 2012
Pivotal Michigan GOP primary may mix things up
The Michigan Republican primary on tap a week from tomorrow should be an exciting contest that could tell us a lot about the nature of the race for the GOP nomination.  Rick Santorum, after giving way to Newt Gingrich's short-lived run, has once again assumed the mantle of the anti-Romney candidate and has enjoyed a substantial rise in the polls as a result.  A Gallup tracking poll put the former senator 8 points ahead of presumed frontrunner Mitt Romney nationally.  And in Michigan, Santorum is leading all five most recent polls by an average of 6 points, according to RealClearPolitics.

What's makes next Tuesday's race even more intriguing is that Michigan is Mitt Romney's home state.  If Santorum can defeat him there, that would bode well for a very competitive atmosphere for the rest of the primaries.  Election Projection still stands behind the prediction that Romney will be the nominee, but a Santorum victory in the Great Lakes State on February 28 would make me question whether that prediction was premature.

Filed under:  2012 GOP Primaries  Rick Santorum  Mitt Romney  Michigan 2012  MI President 2012 

posted by Scott Elliott at 9:41am 02/20/12::
Wednesday, December 14, 2011
Michigan 2012 Preview
Did you know that the Pontiac Silverdome in Pontiac, Michigan cost $55.7 million to build 35 years ago and sold for just $583,000 in 2009?  And did you know that Michigan is the only state in the nation that actually lost population during the first decade of the 21st century?  Interesting bits of trivia from the next stop on our "Tour of the 50 states."

Reapportionment and Redistricting:  Even before the last decade saw less and less people calling Michigan home, the state's population share has long been in decline.  To illustrate the point, Michigan's House membership starting in 2013 will be 14.  That's down one as a result of the 2010 census, but down 5 from a high of 19 during the 1960's and 70's.  Quite a drop in representation, I'd say.  Moreover, this cycle's reduction comes at a good time for the GOP.

Capitalizing on the red wave election of 2010, Republicans now own sole control over the redistricting process by virtue of them holding the governorship and the majorities in the both chambers of the state legislature - and for good measure, they also control Michigan's State Supreme Court.  With their unbridled authority, Republicans have set out to bolster GOP incumbents while combining two Democratic districts.  The resulting map should take one of the Democrats 6 seats away and preserve all 9 of the current Republican seats.

President:  President Obama won the battleground state of Michigan in 2008.  At least, that's what the state was billed as.  His margin of victory, though, was nearly 17 points - hardly much of a battle!  After two relatively close 5-point Democratic victories in 2000 and 2004, Michigan seemed to be trending drastically toward the blue.  But 2010 painted a different picture.  The GOP did very well here, taking the statehouse, two House seats and control of the Michigan House of Representatives.  Do those successes land Michigan once again in the battleground category?  Perhaps, but I'm still giving Obama a nice-sized advantage here.  Call it a Mod DEM Hold.

Senate:  Democratic Senator Debbie Stabenow is up for a third term in 2012.  Several Republicans have signed up for a chance to run against her.  The most prominent of the lot is former Congressman Peter Hoekstra.  While he should be able to give Stabenow a good challenge, especially considering the GOP's performance in 2010, the incumbent will benefit from the increased turnout of a presidential election.  This race starts off as a Mod DEM Hold, but keep an eye on it.  With the slightest of winds at the Republican nominee's back, Stabenow could become eminently vulnerable.

Michigan's other senator, 6-term Democrat Carl Levin, is up for re-election in 2014.

Governor:  Republican Rick Snyder won a crowded primary in 2010 and then prevailed in the general election to succeed term-limited Democratic Governor Jennifer Granholm.  He'll be up for a second term in 2014.

House:  Republicans will likely hold all nine of the seats currently in their fold.  Three seats, District 1, District 7 and District 11, could become competitive depending on how the political winds blow as we move forward.  Democrats will likely hold all the seats they currently hold - except for the one lost to reapportionment, of course.  The partisan makeup of Michigan's delegation would then change from 9-6 to 9-5 in favor of the red team.

You'll find all the details on the Michigan state page.

Next stop:  Minnesota

Filed under:  Michigan 2012  MI President 2012  MI Senate 2012  MI House 2012 

posted by Scott Elliott at 8:08pm 12/14/11::

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