In Kansas, the successor to Republican Senator Sam Brownback will be decided tonight.  OK, technically that won't happen until November 2, but just as Brownback is a shoo-in to become governor, the GOP Senate nominee will be heavily favored to win the general.  That nominee will most likely be Congressman Jerry Moran.  He holds double-digit leads in the polls over another Kansas congressman, Todd Tiahrt. 

Up in Michigan, the gubernatorial primaries for both parties are too close to call, but the top three Republicans are all well-positioned to earn a statehouse takeover against the top two Democrats.  On the Democratic side, there are conflicting polling results that are quite stark.  A mid-July poll released by the Glengariff Group shows Virg Bernero, mayor of Lansing, 9 points ahead of Michigan State House Speaker Andy Dillon.  But, a more-recent EPIC-MRA poll gives Dillon an 8-point lead.

Finally, Roy Blunt and Robin Carnahan will officially begin their highly-anticipated head-to-head battle for the open Senate seat in Missouri.  I have been waiting for this primary to pass for months now so that I can initiate projection tracking on the race.  In fact, I'm looking forward to moving past preliminary projections on all these races and getting some hard numbers in the calculations.

After today, just 20 state primaries remain on the 2010 election calendar.  The last, Hawaii's, is on tap for September 18.



Filed under:  Kansas  KS Senate  Michigan  MI Governor  Missouri  MO Senate 

Governor:  Democratic Governor Jennifer Granholm is term-limited this year.  But after nearly two terms in office, her approval numbers are in the 30's, making re-election, if she were free to run again, a difficult task.  Combine those ratings with economic conditions suited for cultivating voter unrest, and the folks in Michigan might be looking for a Republican alternative for governor in November.  And there happens to be a couple of strong candidates running for the GOP nomination in nine-term Congressman Peter Hoekstra and Attorney General Mike Cox.  On the Democratic side, Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero, House Speaker Andy Dillon and former State Treasurer Bob Bowman will duke it out in Michigan's August primary.  Given the economics in the state, the GOP holds an advantage in the race despite Michigan's Democratic lean (a Republican has not won Michigan's electoral votes since 1988) .  Early polling also points to a GOP victory with Republicans polling better than Democrats in almost every test between major primary contestants.  At least for the time being, Election Projection is projecting the statehouse to be a Weak GOP Gain.

House District 7:  Two year ago, Democrat Mark Shauer barely won this Republican-leaning district, aided by John McCain's late-stage Michigan pull out.  The GOP incumbent he defeated, Tim Walberg is back to try to regain the seat he lost.  With prospects of a GOP wave in November appearing bright, this should be a ripe takeover opportunity.  Indeed, the preliminary projection here is Weak GOP Gain.  However, Walberg faces a strong challenge in the primary from Brian Rooney, Iraqi war veteran and brother of Tom Rooney, GOP congressman from Florida.  If a damaging primary slugfest leaves the GOP nominee battered, Shuaer could grab another term with another close victory.

For more information on the Wolverine State, please see the Michigan state page

Next stop:  Minnesota



Filed under:  Michigan  MI House  MI Governor