By picking Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan, Mitt Romney may have accomplished something no amount of political advertising or stump speech rhetoric could.  His pick sends a tangible message, loud and clear, to his base.  Romney cannot win the presidency without, not just the vote of the conservative base, but their effort as well.  That's been his potential deal-breaker.  Could he convince conservatives that he's their guy?  Could he excite them enough to get them manning the phones, walking the neighborhoods and talking up his candidacy?

That will continue to be a concern for the man who was once pro-abortion and, like his opponent, has a health care plan named after him.  But in naming Ryan to be his running mate, Romney has advanced his conservative credentials as much as he possibly could have and, maybe, just maybe, given his conservative base something to work for.



Filed under: Mitt Romney  Paul Ryan  2012 Presidential Election 

Over the last several days, Santorum's momentum appears to have stalled, and Romney looks to be on the rise again. In Arizona, where Santorum cut a 30-point lead to just 5 on Feb 20, Romney has moved out to a double-digit lead in the latest three polls.

What's makes next Tuesday's race even more intriguing is that Michigan is Mitt Romney's home state.  If Santorum can defeat him there, that would bode well for a very competitive atmosphere for the rest of the primaries.  Election Projection still stands behind the prediction that Romney will be the nominee, but a Santorum victory in the Great Lakes State on February 28 would make me question whether that prediction was premature.



Filed under:  2012 GOP Primaries  Rick Santorum  Mitt Romney  Michigan 2012  MI President 2012 

Somewhat surprisingly, Santorum captures the same number of electoral votes as Romney, 206.  His popular vote count doesn't fair so well.  The president bests him by just over 4 points.  What does this say?  At the moment, Romney is a stronger challenge to Obama - but not by as much as you might think.  And the way poll numbers can move up and down with the greatest of ease, who knows if Santorum might have what it takes to beat Obama in November.

The bottom line remains as it was always going to be in this election.  If the GOP nominates a credible candidate, this election will be a referendum on Obama's administration, and that will be driven by the state of the economy.  Lately we're starting to learn two things in that regard.  First, the economy is starting to look like it will be moving forward between now and November - a good sign for Obama.  And second, Rick Santorum is starting to look like a credible choice for the nomination - a good sign for Santorum.



Filed under:  2012 Presidential Election  Rick Santorum  Mitt Romney  President Obama 

As usual, I'll post an update with a link to the results when it becomes available.

Update:  You can watch the returns come in tonight at the Florida Election Watch website.



Filed under:  2012 GOP Primaries  FL Primary 2012  Florida 2012  FL President 2012  Newt Gingrich  Mitt Romney 

The next step in that process will be tomorrow's South Carolina Republican primary.  In recent days, Gingrich has eradicated a substantial deficit in the polls coming out of the Palmetto State and vaulted into a clear lead.  The momentum from endorsements by Rick Perry and Sarah Palin and strong debate performances have made him the new favorite to win tomorrow.  Whether or not that translates into frontrunner status in other states remains to be seen, but national polls are tightening.

So with no further ado, here are my predictions for the South Carolina Republican primary.

• Newt Gingrich - 41%
• Mitt Romney - 33%
• Ron Paul - 18%
• Rick Santorum - 8%

I'll post an update with a link to the results when it becomes available.

Update:  You can track the results tonight as they come in at this handy website.  Polls close at 7pm Eastern.  And here is a primer to help you interpret early returns: Five counties to watch in South Carolina.



Filed under:  2012 GOP Primaries  SC Primary 2012  South Carolina 2012  SC President 2012  Newt Gingrich  Mitt Romney 

This week's pro-life forum in South Carolina would seem the perfect venue to convince his pro-life doubters they need not worry about how he would govern with respect to abortion.  However, he will not be in attendance tonight.  In fact, Jennifer Mason, a representative of Personhood USA, the forum's sponsor, reports that Romney did not even bother responding to the invitation to participate.

When Rick Perry joined the fray, I boldly declared him the next nominee - and the next president. (Ok, how was I to know he'd forget his own policies?).  When Rick Santorum utilized Mike Huckabee's GOP base in Iowa to gain a virtual tie with Romney in the Hawkeye Caucuses, I pegged the nomination contest as a two-man race.  In between, I rode the short-lived waves of Herman Cain and Newt Gingrich.  And most recently, I even floated the possibility of a Perry comeback in the days before New Hampshire.

Now, with South Carolina's primary less than a week away, I've become convinced of a less-than-optimal inevitability.  It is with some regret that I hereby relinquish hope of an "anti-Romney" candidate prevailing to face President Obama in November.  Mitt Romney is dominating the fundraising battle and the endorsement tally.  Beyond that, he also continues to lead the polls both in South Carolina and nationally.

Trying to draw up a scenario that doesn't end with a Romney nomination has become unreasonably improbable.  So sure am I that he will emerge the nominee that I will soon be dispensing with my preliminary presidential projections and initiating actual, formula-driven projections using Obama vs. Romney poll numbers.  Let the games begin - and may Romney win.



Filed under:  2012 GOP Primaries  2012 Elections  2012 Presidential Election  Mitt Romney