In Colorado, the fate of Democratic incumbent Michael Bennet hangs in the balance.  The partial-term senator is facing a strong challenge from Colorado House Speaker Andrew Romanoff.  Recent polling shows the race to be a toss-up, probably not a good sign for the Bennet.  On the Republican side, former Lt. Governor Jane Norton and DA Ken Buck are also in a toss-up contest.  Buck is the Tea Party favorite and may benefit from voter enthusiasm.

Moving from the Rockies to the Northeast, we check in on the Nutmeg State.  Connecticut has one of the more intriguing candidates of the cycle in wrestling executive Linda McMahon.  Though she received enough support at the Republican convention earlier this year to garner the Senate nomination, two other GOP hopefuls qualified for the primary ballot.  Polls show McMahon to be the prohibitive favorite, however.  In the gubernatorial race, close primary contests await in both parties.  Former Senate nominee Ned Lamont appears to be a few points ahead of Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy on the Democratic ballot, while former ambassador Republican Tom Foley's double-digit lead has shrunk considerably of late as Lt. Governor Michael Fedele has made a late charge.  Fedele now looks to be within striking distance though Foley still holds a small advantage.

The last primary to cover is in Minnesota.  Just this week, I had to change the preliminary projection on the governor's race from Weak GOP Hold to Weak DFL Gain because of former Senator Mark Dayton's large lead in the polls.  He should win the Democratic nomination without problem and looks poised to best presumptive GOP nominee Tom Emmer in the general.

Finally, Georgia Republicans will choose between Former GA Secretary of State Karen Handel and Former Congressman Nathan Deal to be their nominee in the gubernatorial race.  Former Governor Roy Barnes awaits the winner.  Recent polls have been neck-and-neck.  Who wins is anybody's guess right now, but general elections polls show Deal to be the stronger candidate against Barnes in November.



Filed under:  Colorado  Connecticut  Minnesota  Georgia  CO Senate  MN Governor  GA Governor 

Governor:  Republican Tim Pawlenty, perhaps eyeing a 2012 run at the presidency, will call it quits when his second term as governor expires next January.  His first election in 2002 featured a close battle between him and DFLer Roger Moe.  His 44% of the vote bested Moe by 8 points but didn't remove speculation that Democrat Tim Penny's run as an independent - which garnered 16% - provided Pawlenty with the win.  Four years later, Pawlenty won re-election by a scant one percent over DFLer Mike Hatch.  His victory in 2006 was the only Senate or gubernatorial contest not correctly projected here at Election Projection during that cycle.  This year, with Pawlenty out of the hunt, no less than 28 candidates are presently running to take his place.  Among 12 DFLers, former Senator Mark Dayton has a solid edge for the nominee while State Representative Marty Seifert looks strongest among eight Republicans.  Third-party candidates probably won't have the impact this year that they've had in the past.  As for a projection, Mark Dayton's dismal numbers as a senator make this contest seem a good prospect for the GOP.  However, something tells me after 20 years, this may be the time for a DFLer to prevail.  I'll call it a Weak DEM Gain for now.

House District 6:  Republican Michelle Bachman won election to this seat for the first time in 2006 and re-election in 2008, showing the ability to win hotly-contested races in blue wave elections.  She is an outspoken conservative who has a major target on her back.  Her ouster is about the most coveted one in the nation to Democratic activists.  That said, if they can't beat her in a blue year, I don't see it happening in this upcoming red one.  She starts out as a Mod GOP Hold, but I wouldn't be surprised to see that projected margin grow.

The Minnesota state page has much more information.  Check it out!

Next stop:  Mississippi



Filed under:  Minnesota  MN House  MN Governor