Governor:  Republican Tim Pawlenty, perhaps eyeing a 2012 run at the presidency, will call it quits when his second term as governor expires next January.  His first election in 2002 featured a close battle between him and DFLer Roger Moe.  His 44% of the vote bested Moe by 8 points but didn't remove speculation that Democrat Tim Penny's run as an independent - which garnered 16% - provided Pawlenty with the win.  Four years later, Pawlenty won re-election by a scant one percent over DFLer Mike Hatch.  His victory in 2006 was the only Senate or gubernatorial contest not correctly projected here at Election Projection during that cycle.  This year, with Pawlenty out of the hunt, no less than 28 candidates are presently running to take his place.  Among 12 DFLers, former Senator Mark Dayton has a solid edge for the nominee while State Representative Marty Seifert looks strongest among eight Republicans.  Third-party candidates probably won't have the impact this year that they've had in the past.  As for a projection, Mark Dayton's dismal numbers as a senator make this contest seem a good prospect for the GOP.  However, something tells me after 20 years, this may be the time for a DFLer to prevail.  I'll call it a Weak DEM Gain for now.

House District 6:  Republican Michelle Bachman won election to this seat for the first time in 2006 and re-election in 2008, showing the ability to win hotly-contested races in blue wave elections.  She is an outspoken conservative who has a major target on her back.  Her ouster is about the most coveted one in the nation to Democratic activists.  That said, if they can't beat her in a blue year, I don't see it happening in this upcoming red one.  She starts out as a Mod GOP Hold, but I wouldn't be surprised to see that projected margin grow.

The Minnesota state page has much more information.  Check it out!

Next stop:  Mississippi



Filed under:  Minnesota  MN House  MN Governor