In Kansas, the successor to Republican Senator Sam Brownback will be decided tonight.  OK, technically that won't happen until November 2, but just as Brownback is a shoo-in to become governor, the GOP Senate nominee will be heavily favored to win the general.  That nominee will most likely be Congressman Jerry Moran.  He holds double-digit leads in the polls over another Kansas congressman, Todd Tiahrt. 

Up in Michigan, the gubernatorial primaries for both parties are too close to call, but the top three Republicans are all well-positioned to earn a statehouse takeover against the top two Democrats.  On the Democratic side, there are conflicting polling results that are quite stark.  A mid-July poll released by the Glengariff Group shows Virg Bernero, mayor of Lansing, 9 points ahead of Michigan State House Speaker Andy Dillon.  But, a more-recent EPIC-MRA poll gives Dillon an 8-point lead.

Finally, Roy Blunt and Robin Carnahan will officially begin their highly-anticipated head-to-head battle for the open Senate seat in Missouri.  I have been waiting for this primary to pass for months now so that I can initiate projection tracking on the race.  In fact, I'm looking forward to moving past preliminary projections on all these races and getting some hard numbers in the calculations.

After today, just 20 state primaries remain on the 2010 election calendar.  The last, Hawaii's, is on tap for September 18.



Filed under:  Kansas  KS Senate  Michigan  MI Governor  Missouri  MO Senate 

Senate:  Not long after Republican incumbent Senator Kit Bond decided to forego a re-election bid, the partisan battle lines had already been drawn.  Very early on, two folks from established political families in Missouri jumped in.  On the Republican side, Roy Blunt, sitting congressman from Missouri's 7th district, declared his candidacy.  And Robin Carnahan, Missouri's Secretary of State, announced hers for the Democrats.  Blunt's son Matt served as Missouri's governor as did Carnahan's father, Mel.  Her mother also served as senator.  She was appointed to fill a seat won posthumously by her husband after he died tragically during his Senate campaign.  In addition, both candidates claim other close relatives among the ranks of lobbyists and lawyers.  This race is shaping up to one of the most competitive in the country and is sure to be as intense as they come.  Both sides will try to paint the other as the establishment candidate and thus part of the problem in Washington.  Whoever wins that spin battle will likely win the race.  Based on early polling, this race is razor-close.  And based on the low number of undecideds already, it's likely to stay that way from now till Election Day.  Election Projection's preliminary projection of Weak GOP Hold leans more on the national mood than on a clear-cut Blunt advantage.  As for Missouri's bell weather status, the outcome of this race will tell a lot about the outcome of the election in general.  A Carnahan victory should signal less-than-expected losses for the Democrats nationwide, while an easy Blunt win will portend a very nice night for Republicans.

House District 4:  Democrat Ike Skelton first won election to the House back in the 1970's.  Not once since has he gained less than 60% of the vote in his re-election races.  But, this is a different year in three ways.  First, his challengers have seldom been as well-funded as the two possible GOP nominees in the race.  Second, Democrats, with the possible exception of 1994, have not been the target of the type of bad voter vibes they face this year.  And third, Skelton's votes for Obama's stimulus bill and the Democrats "cap-and-trade" legislation put him at odds with this conservative district like never before.  All these factors put this re-election bid in play - but only moderately.  Skelton will be tough to unseat even in this political climate.  That's why this race starts off as a Mod DEM Hold.

Check out the Missouri state page throughout the year for election information and regular updates.

Next stop:  Montana



Filed under:  Missouri  MO Senate  MO House 

Blunt has been a member of the United States House of Representatives since 1997 and, as minority whip, has held the number two GOP position in the House.  His son, Matt, recently served as Missouri's governor.  Carnahan is Missouri's current Secretary of State and daughter of Mel Carnahan, a former governor who was tragically killed while campaigning for a senate seat and Jean Carnahan, who was appointed senator after her husband won that election posthumously.

With two strong candidates in a battleground state known for close statewide elections, Missouri's senate contest next year should be fun to watch.  Some folks have listed it as one of the more likely senate seats to switch hands next November - and well it may - but to The Blogging Caesar, this race will be true tossup all the way to Election Day.



Filed under:  Senate  Missouri  MO Senate