Senate:  First-term Republican Richard Burr beat out Clintonista Erskine Bowles in 2004 to take over this seat held by failed presidential hopeful and recent tabloid staple, John Edwards.  This year he faces the dreaded incumbent curse.  While Jessie Helms and, before him, B. Everette Jordan held North Carolina's other Senate seat for nearly half a century until Helms' retirement in 2002, senators holding this seat have faced much less friendly outcomes.  Since Sam Ervin's last successful re-election in 1968, no senator has been able to get re-elected here.  This year, it is Burr's turn to try to break the spell.  Early polls show him leading the top three Democratic challengers, but the strength of his numbers varies greatly depending on whom is conducting the poll.  In General, Burr has trouble cracking the 50% mark in most surveys.  That's usually not a good sign for an incumbent.  This race seems eerily similar to Elizabeth Dole's re-election run in 2008.  Leading for most of the campaign, she faltered at the end and lost to Democratic nominee Kay Hagan by a solid margin on Election Day.  One thing Burr won't have to face, however, that certainly handicapped Dole is a political headwind.  In fact, the winds will be blowing in his favor, a factor that lends him less vulnerability.  Among the Democratic candidates, Secretary of State Elaine Marshall is the front runner and the most formidable general election opponent for Burr.  That said, the tailwind to which I alluded makes me feel much better about Burr's chances in November.  This race won't be a rout, but it should be a Mod GOP Hold for Burr.

House District 8:  This district saw two very close, very entertaining battles the last two cycles.  In 2006, GOP incumbent Robin Hayes narrowly beat an unknown teacher named Larry Kissell.  Two years later, Kissell took another shot at the sometimes unpopular Hayes.  The second time proved the charm, and Kissell earned a spot in the large Democratic freshman class of 2009.  Now he faces re-election without the help of a national Democratic wave in this Republican-leaning district.  Uh oh for him, right?  Well, not so much, it appears.  The front runner in the GOP field, at least in a financial sense, is a character named Tim D'Annunzio.  Charlie Cook's website has this to say about him.  "GOP strategists are horrified by the prospect that Tim D'Annunzio, a bombastic former Army paratrooper who built a personal fortune selling lightweight body armor to the military following 9-11, could spend his way to the GOP nomination in a May 4 primary.  D'Annunzio sports hefty personal baggage and recently hosted a "Machine Gun Social" fundraiser for his campaign. On his personal blog called "Christ's War," D'Annunzio refers to President Obama, Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Kissell as "Liberal Left God Haters." Yikes!  Until the nomination is settled, there's a chance Kissell might face a viable challenger.  Therefore, this race is currently on the hotly-contested list.  It's projected as a Mod DEM Hold at present.  If D'Annunzio wins the nomination and turns out to be as repulsive as evidence indicates, tracking on this race will likely be discontinued.

Check out the North Carolina state page for the rest of the story.

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Filed under:  North Carolina  NC Senate  NC House