Senate:  One of the main reasons voters here will be voting more Republican this year is due to the double-whammy of Democratic incumbent Byron Dorgan's decision to retire and Republican Governor John Hoeven's decision to run for his Senate seat.  Both men are wildly popular in the state, though Hoeven is more wildly so.  I'm sure that fact influenced Dorgan as he contemplated his political future and as Hoeven's candidacy became more likely.  Rather than face the state's Republican juggernaut in a Republican climate, Dorgan decided to forego a re-election bid.  Ok, to clarify, I'm not sure he actually admitted that to be the case, but I can't help but wonder.  With Dorgan out and Hoeven in, this race is transformed from a secure Democratic retention to a Solid GOP Gain.

House At-Large District:  Earl Pomeroy won his seat in congress the same year Dorgan was elected to the Senate.  Since then, he's only endured a couple close-calls and regularly wins re-election by comfortable margins.  This year may be different though.  Republican gains are on the horizon, and the target on Pomeroy's back has only grown larger with Dorgan out of the picture.  His most likely opponent will be State Representative Rick Berg.  Rasmussen is the only polling firm I could find that has tested this race since Berg became the GOP frontrunner.  In Rasmussen's March poll, Berg actually leads Pomeroy by 7 points.  On the other hand, pundits have been reluctant to classify the incumbent as imminently vulnerable and still give him an advantage.  Until more polling confirms Rasmussen findings, I'm also giving Pomeroy the nod.  We'll call it a Weak DEM Hold for now.  This is, however, one race I sense will end up in Republican hands after Election Day.

The North Dakota state page has a lot more useful information.

Next stop:  Ohio



Filed under:  North Dakota  ND Senate  ND House