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| 2010 Elections - North Dakota Senate Race |
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| Thursday, April 8, 2010 |
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| Fifty state tour - North Dakota preview |
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North Dakota is solidly conservative and votes reliably Republican - in presidential elections. Congressional contests are another story. One might be inclined to believe North
Dakota is deeply blue observing solely recent House and Senate elections. For the last 18 years, both senators and the lone House member have been Democrats. So will these schizophrenic voting patterns continue in 2010? Chances are good they won't. Chances are North Dakotans will finally show their true color - red.
Senate: One of the main reasons voters here will be voting more Republican this year is due to the double-whammy of Democratic incumbent Byron Dorgan's
decision to retire and Republican Governor John Hoeven's decision to run for his Senate seat. Both men are wildly popular in the state, though Hoeven is more wildly so. I'm
sure that fact influenced Dorgan as he contemplated his political future and as Hoeven's candidacy became more likely. Rather than face the state's Republican juggernaut in a
Republican climate, Dorgan decided to forego a re-election bid. Ok, to clarify, I'm not sure he actually admitted that to be the case, but I can't help but wonder. With Dorgan
out and Hoeven in, this race is transformed from a secure Democratic retention to a Solid GOP Gain.
House At-Large District: Earl Pomeroy won his seat in congress the same year Dorgan was elected to the Senate. Since then, he's only endured a couple
close-calls and regularly wins re-election by comfortable margins. This year may be different though. Republican gains are on the horizon, and the target on Pomeroy's back
has only grown larger with Dorgan out of the picture. His most likely opponent will be State Representative Rick Berg. Rasmussen is the only polling firm I could find that has
tested this race since Berg became the GOP frontrunner. In Rasmussen's March poll, Berg actually leads Pomeroy by 7 points. On the other hand, pundits have been reluctant
to classify the incumbent as imminently vulnerable and still give him an advantage. Until more polling confirms Rasmussen findings, I'm also giving Pomeroy the nod. We'll call it
a Weak DEM Hold for now. This is, however, one race I sense will end up in Republican hands after Election Day.
The North Dakota state page has a lot more useful information.
Next stop: Ohio
Filed under:
North Dakota
ND Senate
ND House
posted by Scott Elliott at 11:19pm 04/08/10::
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| Tuesday, January 5, 2010 |
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| ND Sen: Dorgan's decision opens door for GOP |
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Bryon Dorgan, a third-term liberal Democratic senator from conservative North Dakota, has decided forego running for a fourth term. The announcement shocked
members of his own party who were gearing up for a possible barnburner against popular Republican John Hoeven.
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Dorgan's decision stunned members of his party, who control the Senate but are facing spirited challenges from Republicans in several states. Democrats were confident heading into
the new year that Dorgan would run for re-election even as rumors intensified that Republican Gov. John Hoeven would challenge him in November.
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Dorgan's decision immediately throws this race into the extremely vulnerable category, and another potential decision could provide the GOP with a two-for-one prospect in the state.
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Hoeven has not announced a candidacy but national Republicans expect he will. Democrats insist they will field a strong candidate to run in Dorgan's place, and recruitment already
was under way Tuesday. Democratic Rep. Earl Pomeroy, who was first elected to the House in 1992, could be interested in seeking the Senate seat.
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If Pomeroy, who sits relatively secure in his current House seat, goes after Dorgan's senate seat, he'll likely lose decidedly to Hoeven. In addition, the vacancy in the House
left by Pomeroy could easily wind up in GOP hands as well.
Republicans should do well in November. If a few more surprise retirements like this crop up, they could do very, very well.
Filed under:
Senate
ND Senate
North Dakota
posted by Scott Elliott at 8:27pm 01/05/10::
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