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  Politics and Elections
   Newt Gingrich - 2012 Republican Presidential Candidate
Monday, January 30, 2012

Florida Republican primary predictions and results - updated
During the nine days between the Republican primary in South Carolina and tomorrow's Florida Republican primary, we've seen the striking rise and fall of Newt Gingrich.  With Newt's fall, Mitt Romney's nomination has become once again the most likely outcome of this primary season.  I believe the Sunshine State's result tomorrow will be a coronation of sorts for Romney, and my predictions bear that out.
  • Mitt Romney - 45%
  • Newt Gingrich - 33%
  • Rick Santorum - 13%
  • Ron Paul - 9%
The long-sought momentum Romney will finally enjoy after winning Florida will be insurmountable.  Gingrich will continue the fight - as will Ron Paul and possibly Rick Santorum as well - but the outcome will be sure.  It will be Romney to face President Obama in November.

As usual, I'll post an update with a link to the results when it becomes available.

Update:  You can watch the returns come in tonight at the Florida Election Watch website.



Filed under:  2012 GOP Primaries  FL Primary 2012  Florida 2012  FL President 2012  Newt Gingrich  Mitt Romney 



posted by Scott Elliott at 10:15pm 01/30/12::
Thursday, January 26, 2012
This is what you call a 'bounce,' part II - Romney back on top
As I reported Monday, polls taken immediately after South Carolina's primary last Saturday showed Newt Gingrich enjoying a substantial bounce in Florida.  He climbed from 20 points down to 9 points up in one poll in a matter of days.  Now, as is the case with a bouncing ball, what goes up can also come down.  Three days removed from that post, Romney has recovered with striking speed.  The latest polls from Rasmussen Reports and Insider Advantage, taken yesterday, put Romney comfortably back in the lead in the Sunshine State.  Attacks on Newt's previous record by Romney and his super PAC are hitting their mark.
In addition to slamming Gingrich on Freddie Mac, Romney has sought to raise questions about Gingrich's tenure as speaker of the House.  He has called on Gingrich to release "all of the records" from the House ethics investigation of him in the 1990s.
Moreover, I'm sure articles like this one aren't helping Newt's cause.  Elliott Abrams, an assistant secretary of state under Ronald Reagan, claims Newt repeatedly insulted the president.
In the increasingly rough Republican campaign, no candidate has wrapped himself in the mantle of Ronald Reagan more often than Newt Gingrich.  "I worked with President Reagan to change things in Washington," "we helped defeat the Soviet empire," and "I helped lead the effort to defeat Communism in the Congress" are typical claims by the former speaker of the House.

The claims are misleading at best.  As a new member of Congress in the Reagan years - and I was an assistant secretary of state - Mr. Gingrich voted with the president regularly, but equally often spewed insulting rhetoric at Reagan, his top aides, and his policies to defeat Communism.  Gingrich was voluble and certain in predicting that Reagan's policies would fail, and in all of this he was dead wrong.

Even though I have appreciated much about Gingrich throughout this primary season, I have come to fear his nomination.  Abrams' report depicts a major reason why.  The GOP will not be served well in November, top to bottom, if Gingrich is our top line choice.



Filed under:  2012 GOP Primaries  FL Primary 2012  Florida 2012  FL President 2012  Newt Gingrich 



posted by Scott Elliott at 10:24am 01/26/12::
Friday, January 20, 2012
South Carolina Republican primary predictions and results - updated
The dirty laundry is out there.  Fifteen years ago, Newt Gingrich's second wife claims he asked her for an open marriage while he was cheating on her with his current wife.  He denies the charge.  And nearly thirty years ago, Mitt Romney traveled 1200 miles with his dog in a carrier strapped to the top of his family car.  He admits to the deed.  All the while, Republicans are trying to decide who to put up against President Obama in this year's presidential elections.  It would be comical were it not such a serious decision with so much at stake.

The next step in that process will be tomorrow's South Carolina Republican primary.  In recent days, Gingrich has eradicated a substantial deficit in the polls coming out of the Palmetto State and vaulted into a clear lead.  The momentum from endorsements by Rick Perry and Sarah Palin and strong debate performances have made him the new favorite to win tomorrow.  Whether or not that translates into frontrunner status in other states remains to be seen, but national polls are tightening.

So with no further ado, here are my predictions for the South Carolina Republican primary.

  • Newt Gingrich - 41%
  • Mitt Romney - 33%
  • Ron Paul - 18%
  • Rick Santorum - 8%
Gingrich's re-ascension has been quite remarkable.  After two fourth place finishes in Iowa and New Hampshire, he now sits atop the heap in South Carolina and has become (again) the clear anti-Romney alternative.  Four years ago, John McCain's candidacy was declared dead on arrival early on.  We all know how that turned out.  Interestingly, the man whose fortunes suffered most from McCain's surprise resurgence was Mitt Romney.  Could history be repeating itself?

I'll post an update with a link to the results when it becomes available.

Update:  You can track the results tonight as they come in at this handy website.  Polls close at 7pm Eastern.  And here is a primer to help you interpret early returns: Five counties to watch in South Carolina.



Filed under:  2012 GOP Primaries  SC Primary 2012  South Carolina 2012  SC President 2012  Newt Gingrich  Mitt Romney 



posted by Scott Elliott at 6:05pm 01/20/12::

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