Home  Blog  Election Polls  President 2012  Senate 2012  House 2012  Governors 2012  GOP Primaries 2012  Redistricting 2012  Formulas  Results  About me


    "The Blogging Caesar at Election Projection is one of the web's best prognosticators" - Hugh Hewitt

2012 Projections


Election Projection cannot screen all advertisements appearing here.  Therefore, I do not necessarily endorse the products and/or services shown.

Favorite Links

Hugh Hewitt
Hot Air
Michelle Malkin
Viking Pundit
Confederate Yankee
Sister Toldjah
Betsy's Page
Right Wing News
Crystal Ball
Atlas of US Elections
Sell Oil and Gas Royalties


The Anchoress
California Yankee
Daily Pundit
Dividend Reinvestment Plans
Daniel Drezner
Intellectual Conservative
Kim Priestap
La Shawn Barber
Mark Steyn
Michael Totten
Michelle Malkin
Murdoc Online
Mystery Pollster
One Hand Clapping
Outside the Beltway
Political Dog 101
The Strata-Sphere
The Volokh Conspiracy


April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
November 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
November 2004
October 2004
September 2004
August 2004
July 2004
June 2004
May 2004
April 2004
March 2004
February 2004
January 2004
December 2003

  Politics and Elections
   Newt Gingrich - 2012 Republican Presidential Candidate
Monday, January 30, 2012

Florida Republican primary predictions and results - updated
During the nine days between the Republican primary in South Carolina and tomorrow's Florida Republican primary, we've seen the striking rise and fall of Newt Gingrich.  With Newt's fall, Mitt Romney's nomination has become once again the most likely outcome of this primary season.  I believe the Sunshine State's result tomorrow will be a coronation of sorts for Romney, and my predictions bear that out.
  • Mitt Romney - 45%
  • Newt Gingrich - 33%
  • Rick Santorum - 13%
  • Ron Paul - 9%
The long-sought momentum Romney will finally enjoy after winning Florida will be insurmountable.  Gingrich will continue the fight - as will Ron Paul and possibly Rick Santorum as well - but the outcome will be sure.  It will be Romney to face President Obama in November.

As usual, I'll post an update with a link to the results when it becomes available.

Update:  You can watch the returns come in tonight at the Florida Election Watch website.

Filed under:  2012 GOP Primaries  FL Primary 2012  Florida 2012  FL President 2012  Newt Gingrich  Mitt Romney 

posted by Scott Elliott at 10:15pm 01/30/12::
Thursday, January 26, 2012
This is what you call a 'bounce,' part II - Romney back on top
As I reported Monday, polls taken immediately after South Carolina's primary last Saturday showed Newt Gingrich enjoying a substantial bounce in Florida.  He climbed from 20 points down to 9 points up in one poll in a matter of days.  Now, as is the case with a bouncing ball, what goes up can also come down.  Three days removed from that post, Romney has recovered with striking speed.  The latest polls from Rasmussen Reports and Insider Advantage, taken yesterday, put Romney comfortably back in the lead in the Sunshine State.  Attacks on Newt's previous record by Romney and his super PAC are hitting their mark.
In addition to slamming Gingrich on Freddie Mac, Romney has sought to raise questions about Gingrich's tenure as speaker of the House.  He has called on Gingrich to release "all of the records" from the House ethics investigation of him in the 1990s.
Moreover, I'm sure articles like this one aren't helping Newt's cause.  Elliott Abrams, an assistant secretary of state under Ronald Reagan, claims Newt repeatedly insulted the president.
In the increasingly rough Republican campaign, no candidate has wrapped himself in the mantle of Ronald Reagan more often than Newt Gingrich.  "I worked with President Reagan to change things in Washington," "we helped defeat the Soviet empire," and "I helped lead the effort to defeat Communism in the Congress" are typical claims by the former speaker of the House.

The claims are misleading at best.  As a new member of Congress in the Reagan years - and I was an assistant secretary of state - Mr. Gingrich voted with the president regularly, but equally often spewed insulting rhetoric at Reagan, his top aides, and his policies to defeat Communism.  Gingrich was voluble and certain in predicting that Reagan's policies would fail, and in all of this he was dead wrong.

Even though I have appreciated much about Gingrich throughout this primary season, I have come to fear his nomination.  Abrams' report depicts a major reason why.  The GOP will not be served well in November, top to bottom, if Gingrich is our top line choice.

Filed under:  2012 GOP Primaries  FL Primary 2012  Florida 2012  FL President 2012  Newt Gingrich 

posted by Scott Elliott at 10:24am 01/26/12::
Friday, January 20, 2012
South Carolina Republican primary predictions and results - updated
The dirty laundry is out there.  Fifteen years ago, Newt Gingrich's second wife claims he asked her for an open marriage while he was cheating on her with his current wife.  He denies the charge.  And nearly thirty years ago, Mitt Romney traveled 1200 miles with his dog in a carrier strapped to the top of his family car.  He admits to the deed.  All the while, Republicans are trying to decide who to put up against President Obama in this year's presidential elections.  It would be comical were it not such a serious decision with so much at stake.

The next step in that process will be tomorrow's South Carolina Republican primary.  In recent days, Gingrich has eradicated a substantial deficit in the polls coming out of the Palmetto State and vaulted into a clear lead.  The momentum from endorsements by Rick Perry and Sarah Palin and strong debate performances have made him the new favorite to win tomorrow.  Whether or not that translates into frontrunner status in other states remains to be seen, but national polls are tightening.

So with no further ado, here are my predictions for the South Carolina Republican primary.

  • Newt Gingrich - 41%
  • Mitt Romney - 33%
  • Ron Paul - 18%
  • Rick Santorum - 8%
Gingrich's re-ascension has been quite remarkable.  After two fourth place finishes in Iowa and New Hampshire, he now sits atop the heap in South Carolina and has become (again) the clear anti-Romney alternative.  Four years ago, John McCain's candidacy was declared dead on arrival early on.  We all know how that turned out.  Interestingly, the man whose fortunes suffered most from McCain's surprise resurgence was Mitt Romney.  Could history be repeating itself?

I'll post an update with a link to the results when it becomes available.

Update:  You can track the results tonight as they come in at this handy website.  Polls close at 7pm Eastern.  And here is a primer to help you interpret early returns: Five counties to watch in South Carolina.

Filed under:  2012 GOP Primaries  SC Primary 2012  South Carolina 2012  SC President 2012  Newt Gingrich  Mitt Romney 

posted by Scott Elliott at 6:05pm 01/20/12::

Special Thanks To:

Charlie Cook
Cook Political

Congressional Quarterly
CQ Politics

D.C. Finegold Sachs
DC's Political Report

Dave Leip
U.S. Election Atlas

David Wissing
The Hedgehog Report

Larry Sabato
Crystal Ball

Richard & Tony
The Green Papers

Rose Institute
Redistricting in America

Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

Election Projection Resources
EP's RSS Feed

Search this site

provided by Google
Contact Me

e-mail Scott at:
gmail <put a period here> com

©Copyright 2003-2013 Scott Elliott, All Rights Reserved