Senate:  If 2010 were another blue year, Gregg's retirement would certainly make this seat a relatively easy pickup.  But 2010 will most likely be a lot more red than blue.  Still, the race remains a first-tier target for Democratic strategists.  And in Congressman Paul Hodes, they have a first-tier challenger who will make this race tight regardless of the direction of the political winds.  Facing him will be one of four folks vying for the GOP nomination.  The current front-runner is Kelly Ayotte, New Hampshire's Attorney General who brings a plethora of high-profile Republican endorsements into the primary fight.  Against her, though, are two self-funded candidates who bring a lot of dough into the race.  Neither of them, businessman Bill Binnie and 1996 gubernatorial nominee Ovide Lamontagne, can be overlooked.  While Ayotte is, I believe, the best candidate to take on Hodes in November, Binnie and Lamontagne represent real threats to her nomination.  For now, I'll stick with Ayotte to win the primary and go on to successfully defend this seat for the GOP in a Weak GOP Hold.

Governor:  Unlike most states, New Hampshire elects its governor every two years.  This year's victory for sitting NH Governor John Lynch seems a foregone conclusion at this point.  A recent Rasmussen poll has him 19 and 26 points ahead of his two possible challengers, Jack Kimball and Karen Testerman, respectively.  By contrast, GOPer Kelly Ayotte leads Democrat Paul Hodes by 10 in the same poll.  And an earlier poll by Research 2000 had Lynch beating Kimball by a huge 46-point margin.  Projection? Lynch in a walk, Solid DEM Hold.

House District 1:  Just as the blue wave of 2006 gave Democrats a clean sweep of New Hampshire's two-seat House delegation, the red wave coming in November threatens provide the same outcome for Republicans.  In District 1, Carol Shea Porter is facing a serious challenge from Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta, the presumed GOP nominee.  A poll released earlier this year by the University of New Hampshire gave Guinta a 10-point lead.  This early in the cycle, that's a very bad result for the incumbent.  And coupled with pundit ratings which pegs this race as a true toss-up, that's enough for me to start this race out as a Weak GOP Gain.

House District 2:  The open seat in District 2 is much the same story.  Pundit projections show a toss-up - with the exception of Larry Sabato who actually rates it a GOP-lean - and that same UNH poll gives presumptive GOP nominee and former Congressman Charlie Bass a solid lead over both Democrats chasing the Dem nod.  For now, a Weak GOP Gain projection at EP indeed forecasts another House clean sweep here in New Hampshire.

You'll find a bunch more stuff on the New Hampshire state page.

Next stop:  New Jersey



Filed under:  New Hampshire  NH Senate  NH House  NH Governor 

I'll be posting more on these changes with updates to the House vulnerability rankings later on this evening.  The updated GOP haul in the House increases to 18 with the changes, bringing the House projection here at Election Projection to 239 Democrats and 196 Republicans.



Filed under:  Ratings changes  House  New Hampshire  NH House