For the first time in recent memory, a Massachusetts congressional seat is projected to go to a Republican.  Incumbent Democrat Bill Delahunt is retiring this year, and the experts are optimistic that Republican Jeff Perry can compete with Democratic nominee Bill Keating for Delahunt's CD-10 seat.  A recent poll done for the NRCC shows the race deadlocked.  The projection here reflects the closeness of the race, giving Perry a whisper of a lead at 0.2%.  To be sure, this race could easily move back to blue, but for now, it's nice to see the Bay State colored pink on my House map.

A little further south along the northeastern corridor, we find another race that has been solidly in the deadlocked state for some time now.  In the last two weeks alone, New Jersey CD-3 has gone from blue to red, back to blue, and, today, back to red once again.  Needless to say, Democrat incumbent John Adler has all he can handle trying to win re-election against GOPer Jon Runyan in this R+1 district.  For now, he's appears set to lose that battle, but as close as this race has been, this is certainly another one of those districts that could go either way on Election Day.

Finally, Christopher Gibson has moved ahead of incumbent Democrat Scott Murphy in New York's CD-20.  Unlike NJ-3, this seat has moved significantly in one direction recently.  Just two weeks ago, Murphy held a 6-point lead at Election Projection.  Since then, two GOP polls have given Gibson slight leads, and two pundits, Charlie Cook and CQ Politics, have moved the race to the toss-up category.  All this movement adds up to another Republican gain in the House.

Three more GOP takeovers yield a net of 58 in all.  The House tally now stands at 237 Republicans and 198 Democrats.



Filed under:  Ratings changes  Massachusetts  MA House  New Jersey  NJ House  New York  NY House 

Another party-switcher on Saturday came about as a result of a (weird) poll testing the open seat of GOP Senate candidate Mark Steven Kirk in Illinois.  We Ask America published a survey in which Republican Bob Dold led Democrat Dan Seals by 11 points.  There is probably little doubt that Dold, if he leads at all, isn't nearly that far in the lead.  Like in the Senate race in West Virginia, future polls should give the challenger a much better shot at taking this seat.  For now, though, these two changes offset each other, leaving the projected House tally unchanged at 232 Republicans and 203 Democrats.



Filed under:  Ratings changes  House  Illinois  IL House  New Jersey  NJ House 

House District 3:  John Adler won this seat two years ago after entrenched Republican Jim Saxton decided not to seek a twelfth term.  Even though the political climate has done a 180 since his election, he will enjoy the power of incumbency in this very evenly split district (Cook PVI R+1).  And as a Harvard-trained attorney with two decades in politics under his belt, he has the chops to be very strong against whomever faces him in November.  That one is likely to be former NFL offensive lineman Jon Runyan, a political novice.  In an interesting irony, the 6' 7" 330 lb Runyan is set to play David to Adler's political Goliath.  The outcome of this race right now is hard to guess simply because little can be known about what kind of candidate the Republican behemoth will be.  If Runyan's candidacy proves fresh and appealing to voters seeking change, he could upend Adler.  On the other hand, unless his message really connects, this could be relatively easy win for the incumbent.  For now, pundits seem to say the jury is still out.  Taken together, they see Adler as vulnerable, but not terribly so.  This race starts out as a Mod DEM Hold.

The New Jersey state page has the lowdown.  Check it out.

Next stop:  New Mexico



Filed under:  New Jersey  NJ House