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  Politics and Elections
   2010 Elections - New Mexico House Races
Thursday, June 3, 2010
New Mexico primary results - race tracking initiated
Rating Change: New Mexico Governor goes red
The third and final primary held on Tuesday takes us to the Land of Enchantment.  In the headlining primary battle, Republican Susana Martinez prevailed over 4 other GOP hopefuls to win the right to battle New Mexico's Lt. Governor Diane Denish for the governorship being vacated by term-limited Democrat Bill Richardson.  Interestingly, polling data from the race resulted in a rating change here at Election Projection.  Martinez is polling ahead of Denish at the moment, so this race moves from a Weak DEM Hold to a Weak GOP Gain.  The race promises to be a close one all the way to November.

Looking at other outcomes of interest in New Mexico Tuesday, we see Steve Pearce moved on to face the man who took his place in Congress two years ago.  His match-up with Harry Teague in District 2 starts out in the challenger's favor, but this is sure to be another close one.

Here is the list of winners.

Governor
  Democratic Primary
none

Republican Primary
Susana Martinez

District 2
  Democratic Primary
none

Republican Primary
Steve Pearce

District 3
  Democratic Primary
none

Republican Primary
Tom Mullins

The New Mexico state page is where you'll want to go to keep tabs on these races.  Tracking has been initiated on the governor's race, the Pearce/Teague contest and Martin Heinrich's vulnerable re-election bid in District 1.

Update:  Correction.  A reader reminded me that Harry Teague did not oust Steve Pearce two years ago.  Pearce actually left the seat for a failed run at the Senate.



Filed under:  New Mexico  NM House  NM Governor 



posted by Scott Elliott at 3:50pm 06/03/10::


Wednesday, March 31, 2010
Fifty state tour - New Mexico preview
Were it not for the freakishly close outcome in Florida in 2000, New Mexico's final count would have made more news.  Al Gore carried the state that year by just 366 votes out of 600,000 cast.  Four years later, New Mexico helped re-elect George W. Bush, giving him its five electoral votes by a much wider margin of nearly 6000 votes (for the number crunchers out there, that's still less than one percent).  In 2008, President Obama's landslide nationwide was no more evident than here.  He accumulated 125,000 more votes than John McCain and won the state by over 15%.  That election also saw Steve Pearce, Congressman from District 2, leave his seat in the House only to get annihilated 61% to 38% in his ill-fated attempt to hold outgoing 6-term Senator Pete Domenici's seat for the GOP.

Governor:  Domenici's name will be on the ballot again this year.  But it won't be the same race nor the same man.  Pete Domenici, Jr., the retired senator's son, is running for the GOP nomination for governor.  He is leading by double-digits against four others who also want the party nod and seems well-positioned to face the Democratic counterpart in the general election.  That one is sure to be Lt. Governor Diane Denish.  When no one else jumped in to challenge her to follow term-limited Democratic Governor Bill Richardson in the Democratic primary, her nomination became certain (today is the filing deadline in New Mexico).  Denish starts this race off well ahead of Domenici in the polls.  Even Rasmussen has her 17 points better in a recent poll.  I believe this race will tighten somewhat between now and November.  That's why I'm giving it a Mod DEM Hold rating for now.  However, if Domenici doesn't prove to be as worthy a candidate as his father, that rating could become more solidly blue.

House District 2:  This is the seat Steve Pearce left two years ago to run for Senate.  In his absence, the GOP fielded political lightweight Ed Tinsley while the Democrats picked Lee Country Commissioner Harry Teague.  Even though Bush won District 2 in 2004 by 16%, Tinsley could muster only 44% of the vote and lost to Teague by 12.  This year, Pearce is back to try to regain the seat.  The battle between Teague, who now enjoys the advantages which come with incumbency, and Pearce, who doesn't have to face a gale force blue wind in his face, is sure to be a close one right up to Election Day.  Early polls show Pearce with a slight lead in this Republican-leaning district (Cook PVI R+6).  Pundits also see a close race currently leaning toward Pearce.  Though the projection of this race may flip back and forth over the next 7 months, right now it stands as a Weak GOP Gain.

Get lots more information on the Land of Enchantment by visiting the New Mexico state page.

Next stop:  New York



Filed under:  New Mexico  NM House  NM Governor 



posted by Scott Elliott at 8:40pm 03/31/10::

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