Senate:  Democratic Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is unpopular in his home state.  Oscar Goodman, mayor of Las Vegas, is popular.  Some Nevada Democrats were hoping for a Dodd-like switcharoo to help save the senate seat now occupied by Reid.  If you'll remember, Connecticut Senator Chris Dodd faced losing his seat to the GOP before backing out in favor a more electable Democrat.  His decision moved that race from a likely GOP takeover to a likely DEM hold.  Alas, for Democrats at least, Goodman decided to stay at the helm of Sin City.  Now Reid faces the daunting task of beating either one of two Republicans who each own substantial leads over him in the polls.  Either Sue Lowden, Nevada GOP Chairwoman, or Danny Tarkanian, son of former UNLV basketball coach Jerry Tarkanian, are poised to move Reid's seat over to the red column in November.  However, don't count Reid out just yet.  He is a crafty politician with an enormous war chest.  He will not go quietly into the night.  That said, the polls are overwhelming in the GOP's favor right now, so, right now, this race is projected as a Weak GOP Gain.

Governor:  The outcome of this race, much like the Connecticut senate race, depends on whether the incumbent is on the ballot.  Current Republican Governor Jim Gibbons, tarnished by scandal, is even less liked here than Harry Reid.  He is trailing his potential Democrat challenger Rory Reid (Harry's son and Clark County Commissioner).  That's bad news for the GOP - but there is good news.  He's also losing to primary challenger, Republican Brian Sandoval.  And, in more good news, polls indicate Sandoval would cruise to victory in the general election.  Though Sandoval's lead over Gibbons is not a solid as I would hope, I'm still betting on him winning the primary.  Nevertheless, the chance Gibbons will be on the ballot in November tempers the projected GOP win.  Instead of a solid hold - which it will be if and when Sandoval wins the primary - it is projected at the moment to be a Weak GOP Hold.

House District 3:  Democrat Dina Titus rode the blue wave of 2008 to victory over Republican incumbent Jon Porter.  However, Titus' reputation as a partisan puts her out of the mainstream of this politically divided area and makes her re-election attempt more challenging with a wave of a different hue coming at her.  The only poll I could find on the race, a Mason-Dixon poll conducted early last December, put her in a 40-40 tie against her likely GOP opponent, former State Senator Joseph Heck.  Look for this race to be high on the radar for both parties as the election nears.  This race may eventually move to red, but, for now, pundit ratings dictate a Weak DEM Hold.

For more information, please check out the Nevada state page.

Next stop:  New Hampshire



Filed under:  Nevada  NV Senate  NV House  NV Governor