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| 2010 Elections - Nevada Senate Race |
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| Tuesday, October 26, 2010 |
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| EP Guarantee: Sharron Angle will defeat Harry Reid |
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Sometimes during a political cycle, I get hunches. Sometimes they prove true, like when I predicted way back in December, 2007 that front-running Rudy Giuliani would
not be the GOP nominee. Other times,
I'm way off. Such is the nature of hunches.
But the title of this post is not a hunch. It is a long-contemplated, justifiable conclusion based on facts. Harry Reid will be heading back to Searchlight after this congress
ends. Mark my words. How can I be so sure? There are plenty of reasons. I'll enumerate 4 of them here.
The Las Vegas Review Journal Angle endorsement
Most newspaper endorsements mean little to the outcome of the races they weigh in on. But this race is different. Ever since Angle's victory in the Republican primary
in Nevada back in June, she has been caricatured and demeaned. Every step of the way she has struggled against attempts to disqualify her, to relegate her to
the fanatical fringe of the political spectrum. Too radical was the mantra, too kooky even.
The LVRJ endorsement helped take the wind out of that effort, giving her candidacy a sense of legitimacy she needed. Need evidence? By my count, Angle led Reid in just 5 of the last 19 polls before the October 3 endorsement - 3 of them by a single point. In the
10 polls since, she has led all but 2.
The Debate
I didn't see the Big Debate, but I've read the consensus coming out of it was that Angle beat
Reid - not just held her own. On the other hand, Reid performed nothing like the second most powerful man in Washington, which he arguably is. Not only did voters get
a view of Angle as a credible option for the office of senator, they also saw the now-tarnished luster of their incumbent.
The money
Early in this cycle, despite all the buzz to the contrary, I felt Harry Reid would be a very tough one to take out. His massive warchest of millions and millions kept tempering any
optimism I tried to build about this race. Then came news that Angle had
raised $14 million in the third quarter alone and was even with Reid in cash on hand to spend down
the campaign's homestretch. What was once an overwhelming obstacle to any challenge has been reduced to parity. Angle and outside groups fighting with her have been
able to go toe to toe against Reid and his cohorts in the all-important money battle.
The polls
As I wrote earlier, Angle's standing in the polls has improved noticeably of late. She has consistently held a small lead for the last couple weeks. That's a good
thing. But an equally telling aspect of the polls has been Reid's numbers. Even when he polls ahead of Angle, he can't break 50. In fact, his average poll result over the
last two dozen polls barely eclipses 45%. Traditionally, those numbers spell defeat for incumbent senators.
Well, there you have it. Remember where you heard it. Sharron Angle will be the next senator from Nevada. I guarantee it.
Filed under:
Senate
Nevada
NV Senate
posted by Scott Elliott at 11:25pm 10/26/10::
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| Saturday, October 9, 2010 |
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| Rating change: Catching up, Senate and Governors |
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There have been numerous rating changes this week. Unfortunately, I have not been able to publish a post regarding those changes. I'm going to do that now, breaking them
into two parts. This post will cover the Senate and gubernatorial changes; the next will cover the House.
On Tuesday, Florida's statehouse race, currently held by a (former) Republican Charlie Crist, moved back into the Republican fold thanks to 4 polls in 5 days giving GOP nominee Rick
Scott the lead over Democrat Alex Sink. Its move from Weak DEM Gain to Weak GOP Hold give the GOP 31
projected governorships against just 19 for the Democrats.
In the Senate, Friday gave us a significant party switcher. After absorbing millions in negative advertising from Democrat incumbent Harry Reid, Sharron Angle recently got the
endorsement of Nevada's largest newspaper, the Las Vegas Review Journal. I had a hunch that the legitimacy this endorsement lent to the Angle candidacy would impact the race
more than newspaper endorsements tend to do. Indeed, that may have happened. In all three polls released so far in October, Angle is ahead. And now, she's ahead
here at Election Projection, too. Like the governor's race in Florida, this one also moves from Weak DEM Gain to
Weak GOP Hold. The GOP is now projected to pick up 9 seats in the Senate and moves into an effective tie with the 48 Democrats and 2 Independents on
the other side of the aisle.
Filed under:
Ratings changes
Senate
Governors
Nevada
NV Senate
Florida
FL Governor
posted by Scott Elliott at 11:37pm 10/09/10::
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| Friday, June 11, 2010 |
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| Rating change: Rasmussen poll puts Angle back up |
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On Wednesday, Sharron Angle's victory in Tuesday's Nevada Senate primary pushed Democrat Harry Reid to the front in his 2010 re-election bid. Yesterday, however, Rasmussen released a
poll of the race giving Angle a comfortable 11-point advantage. The new poll returns Angle to the lead, moving the race from Weak DEM Hold to
Weak GOP Gain. I'll have a word about Rasmussen, my projections, and the red wave of 2010 later on, but for now, the projected
Senate tally reverts to pre-Wednesday numbers - 50 Democrats, 48 Republicans and 2 Independents.
Filed under:
Ratings changes
Senate
Nevada
NV Senate
posted by Scott Elliott at 12:24pm 06/11/10::
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| Thursday, June 10, 2010 |
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| Rating change: Angle's primary win changes NV Sen |
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Harry Reid looks like he might survive this election after all. Despite being soundly disliked in his own state and down by double-digits earlier this year in the polls, the Senate majority
leader has been making a comeback of late. Now that Sharron Angle, the Tea Party favorite in the race, has won the GOP primary, Reid's prospects have improved even
more. Angle carries the right kind of conservative label to suit the Tea Partiers, but she also carries no small load of baggage with her into the general election. Polls
currently show Reid ahead by just a point or two, but that's enough to flip this race from Weak GOP Gain to
Weak DEM Hold. A GOP majority in the Senate looks a bit less likely after this change. The current projected tally here now stands at
51 Democrats, 47 Republicans and 2 Independents.
Filed under:
Ratings changes
Nevada
NV Senate
Tea party
posted by Scott Elliott at 12:07pm 06/10/10::
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| Thursday, March 25, 2010 |
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| Fifty state tour - Nevada preview |
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The Silver State, like its ghost towns of old, is sure to be home to several exciting shootouts this November. Majority leader Harry Reid could become the second Democratic senator
this century to lose his seat while holding that title. The Republican governor is scandal-plagued and may not even emerge from his primary. And, though Nevada boasts only
three House seats, one of them looks to be a barnburner as well. Long a battleground state - George W. Bush narrowly won here in 2004; Barack Obama turned it red in 2008 -
Nevada seems likely to be a battleground state much farther down the ballot this year.
Senate: Democratic Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is unpopular in his home state. Oscar Goodman, mayor of Las Vegas, is popular. Some Nevada
Democrats were hoping for a Dodd-like switcharoo to help save the senate seat now occupied by Reid. If you'll remember, Connecticut Senator Chris Dodd faced losing his seat to
the GOP before backing out in favor a more electable Democrat. His decision moved that race from a likely GOP takeover to a likely DEM hold. Alas, for Democrats at least,
Goodman decided to stay at the helm of Sin City. Now Reid faces the daunting task of beating either one of two Republicans who each own substantial leads over him in the
polls. Either Sue Lowden, Nevada GOP Chairwoman, or Danny Tarkanian, son of former UNLV basketball coach Jerry Tarkanian, are poised to move Reid's seat over to the red
column in November. However, don't count Reid out just yet. He is a crafty politician with an enormous war chest. He will not go quietly into the night. That
said, the polls are overwhelming in the GOP's favor right now, so, right now, this race is projected as a Weak GOP Gain.
Governor: The outcome of this race, much like the Connecticut senate race, depends on whether the incumbent is on the ballot. Current Republican Governor
Jim Gibbons, tarnished by scandal, is even less liked here than Harry Reid. He is trailing his potential Democrat challenger Rory Reid (Harry's son and Clark County
Commissioner). That's bad news for the GOP - but there is good news. He's also losing to primary challenger, Republican Brian Sandoval. And, in more good news,
polls indicate Sandoval would cruise to victory in the general election. Though Sandoval's lead over Gibbons is not a solid as I would hope, I'm still betting on him winning the
primary. Nevertheless, the chance Gibbons will be on the ballot in November tempers the projected GOP win. Instead of a solid hold - which it will be if and when
Sandoval wins the primary - it is projected at the moment to be a Weak GOP Hold.
House District 3: Democrat Dina Titus rode the blue wave of 2008 to victory over Republican incumbent Jon Porter. However, Titus' reputation as a partisan
puts her out of the mainstream of this politically divided area and makes her re-election attempt more challenging with a wave of a different hue coming at her. The only poll I could
find on the race, a Mason-Dixon poll conducted early last December, put her in a 40-40 tie against her likely GOP opponent, former State Senator Joseph Heck. Look for this race
to be high on the radar for both parties as the election nears. This race may eventually move to red, but, for now, pundit ratings dictate a Weak DEM
Hold.
For more information, please check out the Nevada state page.
Next stop: New Hampshire
Filed under:
Nevada
NV Senate
NV House
NV Governor
posted by Scott Elliott at 10:18pm 03/25/10::
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| Thursday, January 14, 2010 |
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| NV Sen: Reid could take Dodd path to (maybe) save seat |
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Christopher Dodd saw the writing on the wall in Connecticut. He bowed out to let another Democrat win his seat rather than stay in and watch it go to the Republicans.
A Public Policy poll out today suggests the same writing might be observed on a wall somewhere in
Nevada. Whereas Reid loses badly to all Republican comers, Oscar Goodman, the Democratic mayor of Las Vegas, polls strongly against the two top GOP contenders.
US SENATE – NEVADA (PPP)
Danny Tarkanian (R) 50%
Harry Reid (D-inc) 42%
Danny Tarkanian (R) 47%
Shelley Berkley (D) 39%
Danny Tarkanian (R) 45%
Ross Miller (D) 34%
Danny Tarkanian (R) 41%
Oscar Goodman (D) 41%
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Sue Lowden (R) 51%
Harry Reid (D-inc) 41%
Sue Lowden (R) 46%
Shelley Berkley (D) 38%
Sue Lowden (R) 44%
Ross Miller (D) 34%
Sue Lowden (R) 40%
Oscar Goodman (D) 42%
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Were Reid to make an exit like Dodd, this race would immediately move from Weak GOP Gain to a very hard to pick toss-up. But will he?
My hunch is that he will not. From the way he is railroading Obamacare through the Senate at his party's peril, I can't imagine him stepping aside for the good of the party when it
comes to his position of leadership in the Senate.
Hat tip: David Wissing at The Hedgehog Report
Filed under:
Senate
Nevada
NV Senate
posted by Scott Elliott at 3:13pm 01/14/10::
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| Saturday, January 9, 2010 |
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| NV Sen: Reid's troubles worsen, likely to lose seat |
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Until now I have kept Nevada's Senate seat in the blue. Yes, Democratic incumbent Harry Reid has been polling poorly for months now, but he is a crafty politician sitting on an
enormous war chest. However, to expect him to pull this re-election bid out given the
terrible head-to-head and favorability numbers he faces is probably regarding his political skill and
financial muscle a bit too highly. As a result, Election Projection is changing the preliminary rating on this race from Weak DEM Hold to
Weak GOP Gain. This change brings the projected Senate tally to 44 Republicans, 54 Democrats and 2 others who vote with the Democrats.
That's a four-seat gain so far for the GOP. A long ways from regaining the upper chamber, but significant progress in gaining the necessary clout to slow the Democratic agenda
freight train.
Filed under:
Ratings changes
Senate
Nevada
NV Senate
posted by Scott Elliott at 4:58pm 01/09/10::
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| Monday, October 12, 2009 |
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| NV Senate: Harry Reid is in trouble |
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Nevada Senator Harry Reid is one of the most powerful figures in Washington. He's the Senate Majority Leader and an entrenched four-term member. He is constantly
front and center, leading the Democrats' agenda on Capitol Hill, and he has
over $7 million on hand to use to win another six-year term. But there's a small
problem. No, actually, there's a big problem. Harry Reid is not very popular among his constituents. His approval ratings are
under 40%, and recent
polls indicate he would lose to, not one, but two different GOP challengers. In addition,
Charlie Cook rates this race a toss-up - not an enviable position for an incumbent, especially this far out from Election
Day. Reid is definitely in trouble, though the cash he has in his coffers will make him formidable. Were it not for the dough, he most likely would be destined to follow in the
footsteps of one Tom Daschle, another Democratic Senate Majority Leader to lose his seat.
Filed under:
Senate
Nevada
NV Senate
posted by Scott Elliott at 11:49pm 10/12/09::
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