House District 1:  Since Democrat Tim Bishop won this seat from a battered incumbent back in 2002, he has not been seriously threatened in three re-election bids.  But neither has he faced a well-funded challenger in an environment unreceptive to Democrats - which is exactly what's coming at him in November.  Combine that with his liberal voting record and you have the makings of close race.  Republican and OfficeTiger entrepreneur Randy Altschuler has the personal wealth to fund his own candidacy and has shown the willingness to do so ($450,000 so far).  A recent SurveyUSA poll puts Altschuler just two points behind Bishop.  Clearly, Altschuler has the potential to win here, though pundits still give a close but clear advantage to Bishop.  As of now, this race projects as a Mod DEM Hold, but you might want to keep close eye on it as we near Election Day.

House District 13:  Like Bishop in District 1 back in 2002, Democrat Mike McMahon benefited from an imploding GOP situation in this district in 2008.  He won two years ago with 61% of the vote even though McCain carried the district with 51%. This year, the GOP is stronger, both locally and nationally, and better prepared to contest for the seat.  Two Republicans seek the nomination, but Mike Grimm, Gulf War veteran, appears to be the front-runner and the better choice to face McMahon.  As in District 1, the pundits currently like the Democratic incumbent to win, but this race is moving with the winds toward the GOP.  It's a Mod DEM Hold race that could tighten or even swing to the GOP in the coming months.

House District 19:  John Hall, like so many other Democrats incumbents, is still relatively new to the Congress, having first won this Republican-leaning district in 2006.  Two years later, he was easily re-elected with 58% of the vote.  But, like so many other Democratic incumbents, he faces a completely different climate in 2010.  Moreover, his probable challenger, ophthalmologist Nan Hayworth, is well-funded and representative of the political outsider that may connect especially well with voters looking for a different kind of change.  Still, the power of incumbency must be pretty strong here as all four on Election Projection's pundit panel give Hall the edge in the general election.  For now, call it a Mod DEM Hold.

House District 20:  Were it not for the fact that the GOP has not been able to field an appetizing candidate to challenge him, partial-term Congressman Scott Murphy would be sitting much more precariously as this election cycle moves into full swing.  Elected last year in a special election by the scantest of margins (726 votes), he should be a ripe takeover target for the GOP.  Apparently, however, the GOP has so far missed the mark.  The consensus among the pundits is that he re-election is "likely."  Nevertheless, at 8%, the projected margin lands him on the hotly-contested list, even if just barely.  If the red wave is large enough to capsize the Democratic majority in the House, Murphy's seat might be swept away.  Short of that, he should win re-election.  Mod DEM Hold.

House District 23:  This area of New York has been at once liberal and Republican in recent memory.  Its penchant for electing liberal GOPers produced a unique special election last November.  An insurgent Conservative Party nominee, Doug Hoffman, ran in opposition to hand-picked Republican nominee Dede Scozzafava and her liberal positions in the issues.  At the eleventh-hour, when Hoffman seemed poised to actually pull off an upset victory, she dropped out of race and threw her support behind Owens.  Indications are that her surprise withdrawal and support for Owens propelled him to a narrow victory.  This year, Hoffman is back, but headed for the GOP nomination this time.  While this rematch is intriguing and should lean toward the GOP, Owens appears to maintain an advantage seven months out.  It's projected here as a Weak DEM Hold currently.

House District 24:  After winning his first election to congress in 2006, Democrat Michael Arcuri could only secure 51% of the vote in his re-election bid in 2008's blue wave election.  Combine that poor showing with his flip-flop vote on Obamacare sandwiched around the entry of a solid GOP challenger into the 2010 edition of the race for this seat, and Arcuri is clearly one of the more-vulnerable of New York's long list of vulnerable House Democrats.  After he voted for the House version of Obamacare, 2008 GOP nominee, Richard Hanna declared his candidacy.  Arcuri then voted against the Senate version of the bill.  Whether Hanna's decision to run influenced Arcuri to change his vote is not known, but, as Charlie Cook's analysis of the race states, "it makes the incumbent look like anything but a profile in political courage."  I personally expect Hanna to prevail in November, but the aggregate pundit ratings give Arcuri an early edge, a Weak DEM Hold.

House District 29:  Finally, we've reached the end of the list in New York.  And we finally have a race Election Projection gives to the GOP.  Democrat Eric Massa didn't just decide not to seek a second term here in November, he decided to call it quits mid-term.  His decision leaves the seat vacant and leaves the Democrats searching for a viable candidate.  On the other hand, the GOP is sitting pretty in this Cook PVI R+5 district where Massa barely won against a poor Republican incumbent two years ago.  With Massa running, this would have been a pure toss-up at this stage.  Without him, it's a Weak GOP Gain.

The New York state page is chock full of more information.  Don't miss it!

Next stop: North Carolina



Filed under:  New York  NY Senate  NY House  NY Governor 

Senate:  Democrat Chuck Schumer is a powerful member of the Senate, serving as vice-chairman of the Senate Democratic Caucus since 2006, chairman of the Senate Rules committee since last year, and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee from 2005 to 2009, a tenure which saw 14 Senate seats flip from red to blue.  He also excels at fundraising - despite the fact that he faces essentially no real threat to his re-election.  In February, he had an astronomical $19.4 million on hand, tops in the Senate.  Anybody care to guess what his chances to win another term are this year?  Yep, Solid DEM Hold.

Senate (special):  Kristen Gillibrand was appointed to this seat after New York's adopted daughter Hillary Clinton accepted President Obama's offer to become Secretary of State.  She is a fast riser who vaulted to the Senate just 3 years after she won her first political contest, unseating Republican incumbent John Sweeney to assume the House seat from New York's 20th congressional district in 2006.  This year's bid to be elected to the Senate in her own right could hinge on the decision of former Republican Governor George Pataki.  He has yet to announce a run, but he seems to be considering it.  Survey tests between the two show a very competitive race is in store if he jumps in.  If he doesn't, though, Gillibrand position is relatively strong heading into the general election season.  Until Pataki proves otherwise, I'm guessing he won't run.  That's why this race is projected as a Strong DEM Hold.

Governor:  Oh boy, what a mess the New York governorship has been lately!  First, there was Democrat Eliot Spitzer's highly publicized, highly scandalous demise in March of 2008.  Then Spitzer's Lt. Governor, David Paterson, who assumed the role after his resignation, faced all kinds of personal potholes and public oops'es before officially deciding against seeking the Governor's Mansion in 2010 - just 6 days after officially entering the race.  The good news is that, in his absence, the Democrats may have secured a first-tier candidate in NY Attorney General Andrew Cuomo.  Though he isn't declared yet, his candidacy is likely.  Polls give him solid advantages over all potential GOP challengers.  If he runs, he'll most likely face Rick Lazio, the former congressman who lost the 2000 New York senate election to "sitting" First Lady Hillary Clinton.  Since I'm confident a Cuomo-Lazio matchup in the offing, I feel free to project this race as a Strong DEM Hold.

I'll continue this preview in the next post.  Be sure to check back for "Part 2" soon.



Filed under:  New York  NY Senate  NY House  NY Governor