For the first time in recent memory, a Massachusetts congressional seat is projected to go to a Republican.  Incumbent Democrat Bill Delahunt is retiring this year, and the experts are optimistic that Republican Jeff Perry can compete with Democratic nominee Bill Keating for Delahunt's CD-10 seat.  A recent poll done for the NRCC shows the race deadlocked.  The projection here reflects the closeness of the race, giving Perry a whisper of a lead at 0.2%.  To be sure, this race could easily move back to blue, but for now, it's nice to see the Bay State colored pink on my House map.

A little further south along the northeastern corridor, we find another race that has been solidly in the deadlocked state for some time now.  In the last two weeks alone, New Jersey CD-3 has gone from blue to red, back to blue, and, today, back to red once again.  Needless to say, Democrat incumbent John Adler has all he can handle trying to win re-election against GOPer Jon Runyan in this R+1 district.  For now, he's appears set to lose that battle, but as close as this race has been, this is certainly another one of those districts that could go either way on Election Day.

Finally, Christopher Gibson has moved ahead of incumbent Democrat Scott Murphy in New York's CD-20.  Unlike NJ-3, this seat has moved significantly in one direction recently.  Just two weeks ago, Murphy held a 6-point lead at Election Projection.  Since then, two GOP polls have given Gibson slight leads, and two pundits, Charlie Cook and CQ Politics, have moved the race to the toss-up category.  All this movement adds up to another Republican gain in the House.

Three more GOP takeovers yield a net of 58 in all.  The House tally now stands at 237 Republicans and 198 Democrats.



Filed under:  Ratings changes  Massachusetts  MA House  New Jersey  NJ House  New York  NY House 

This time, it looked like a repeat offense might have been in the offing when Doheny denied Hoffman the GOP nomination.  Instead, Hoffman has done the noble thing and given Doheny a much less obstructed path to a GOP takeover.  On the back of a recent head-to-head poll between Doheny and Owens which showed Doheny out in front by a 51-37 margin, this race moves from Weak DEM Hold to Weak GOP Gain.  With this update, Republican net gains in the House rise to a new high at 47 seats.



Filed under:  Ratings changes  New York  NY House 

The balance of power is projected to be 222 Republicans and 213 Democrats.  At 43, this update represents the largest net GOP gain in the lower chamber so far this election cycle.



Filed under:  Ratings changes  Georgia  GA House  Illinois  IL House  New York  NY House 

Countering those polls were twenty race rating changes from Stuart Rothenberg.  All twenty favored the Republicans.  As a result of Rothernberg's downgrade of Steve Kagen chances in Wisconsin's 8th district, Republicans are now projected to take that seat.  The race moves from Weak DEM Hold to Weak GOP Gain.  Incorporating these developments into the overall House projection brings the new projected balance of power to 218 Democrats and 217 Republicans.  After just a couple days as the party in control, the GOP relinquishes their projected House majority today.



Filed under:  Ratings changes  Illinois  IL House  New York  NY House  Wisconsin  WI House 

Benefiting Democrats is West Virginia's first district.  A Democratic poll completed on August 2 gives Democratic nominee Michael Oliverio a huge 52%-36% lead over Republican David McKinley.  The entire EP pundit panel rates this race a toss-up, so some doubt has to be cast on this polls results.

Two seats changed from blue to red from today's updates.  Just as a Democrat poll vaulted Oliverio into the lead, a Republican poll has moved Republican Adam Kinzinger ahead of incumbent Democrat, Debbie Halvorson.  And, like that poll, this one also raises suspicions.  Partisan polls do tend to be partisan.  That's why I adjust all these House polls before entering them in the calculations by deleting 2 points from the candidate of the pollster's party and adding 2 points to the other.  Even so, polls with large margins can still sway the results.

The second blue-to-red change comes out of Wisconsin where a We Ask America poll gives Republican Sean Duffy a decided edge over Democrat Julie Lassa to replace outgoing Congressman David Obey (D) in District 7.  Since the primaries have not occurred yet in Wisconsin, this change is a preliminary switch.  By the way, for those who doubt We Ask America's legitimacy as a pollster, here are some favorable comments about them.

These changes bring the net Republican gain in the House to a high so far this cycle at EP.  They are now projected to gain 35 seats while losing just 2.  The House tally moves to 223 Democrats and 212 Republicans, just 6 GOP gains away from a Republican majority.



Filed under:  House  Illinois  IL House  West Virginia  WV House  Wisconsin  WI House 

A big change in the adjustment impacts the latest House projections, and the impact favors the GOP.  With an average lead by the generic Republican candidate increasing to 2.3%, the adjustment grows from 0.3 points to 1.1.  That's enough to push four more seats over to the red column in today's projections.  They include AL-2, ID-1, IL-14 and WV-1.  These newly-rosy districts move the overall House projection to 226 Democrats and 205 Republicans.  At 30, the net seat gain is at a highwater mark so far this cycle for the GOP.  Still, they would need 9 more to capture the majority in the House.



Filed under:  Ratings changes  House  AL House  ID House  IL House  WV House 

As a result of incorporating actual polling numbers into the projections for Illinois, Mark Steven Kirk is now projected to win the Senate race.  Yep, that's the seventh seat now projected to go to the GOP in November and moves the projected Senate tally to 50 Democrats, 48 Republicans, and 2 Independents.

One more note: The GOP gubernatorial primary is still too close to call, so the projection for that race remains preliminary.  I'll update this post when I receive word that the nominee has been named.

Update:  State Senator Bill Brady is the GOP nominee for governor.



Filed under:  Primary results  Illinois  IL Senate  IL House  IL Governor 

Senate:  Pioneering African-American politician Roland Burris was appointed by then-governor Democrat Rod Blagojevich to fill the Senate seat vacated by Barack Obama.  His appointment was not without scandal.  Blagojevich was convicted afterward for trying to sell the seat to the highest bidder.  So shady were the circumstances surrounding Burris' appointment that Senate Democrats - Obama included - initially refused to seat him.  Eventually, Burris did gain official membership in the Senate, but, dogged by controversy and lacking the support of top Democrats, he has decided to forego a run for election in his own right.  His decision probably enhanced the Democrats' chances of keeping the seat in the blue column.  GOP hopes hinge on moderate Republican Mark Kirk, current U.S. Congressman from district 10.  On the Democratic side, State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias is the frontrunner.  Most pundits call this one a toss-up, and Election Projection lists it among the top ten most vulnerable Senate seats.  However, Obama's weight will loom large in this race, and the many Chicago pols in his circle will surely be intimately involved with it.  As a result, I have a hunch Illinois will stick to its blue genes and make this race a Weak DEM Hold.

Governor:  As lieutenant governor, Pat Quinn ascended to the Illinois governorship when Blagojevich was removed from office by a 59-0 Illinois Senate vote last January.  He is running in 2010 for a first full term while serving out the remainder of Blagojevich's term.  His strongest asset - besides the 'D' after his name - is his lack of closeness with his disgraced predecessor.  He and Blagojevich ended up on the same ticket solely by virtue of Illinois electoral procedure which pairs primary gubernatorial candidates by party affiliation in the general election.  According to the Washington Post, they have not spoken since August, 2007.  He should be able to win in November, though former gubernatorial candidate and state Attorney General Jim Ryan is proving to be a solid challenger.  Because of Ryan's early strong polling, I'll designate this race a Weak DEM Hold to start.

House District 10:  GOPer Mark Kirk has entered the race to replace Roland Burris in the Senate.  That choice leaves this seat open in this Democratic-leaning district which voted heavily for President Obama in 2008.  One of just a handful of seriously vulnerable GOP seats, District 10 should flip to blue in 2010.  The race to succeed Kirk could come down to two Illinois state representatives, Republican Elizabeth Coulson and Democrat Julie Hamos.  If that is the case, Election Projection gives the nod to Hamos.  If not, give it to whatever Democrat emerges the primary victor.  Either way, call it a sure Weak DEM Gain.

House District 14:  One other House district in Illinois figures to be competitive this year, though not as likely to switch parties.  That race is Bill Foster's bid for re-election in district 14.  This seat was once held by former Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert and is traditionally Republican-leaning.  Battling to get the chance to unseat Foster are Republicans Ethan Hastert, the ex-speaker's son, and Randy Hultgren, a state senator.  Election Projection starts this race as a Weak DEM Hold, but even a moderate red wave in November could easily push it over into red territory.

There's a bunch of information on the Illinois state page.  Be sure to check it out.

Next stop:  Indiana



Filed under:  Illinois  IL Senate  IL House  IL Governor