Since I had been keeping up with changes made by the other three on my pundit panel, CQ Politics' new set of updates, numbering 31-2 in favor of the GOP, had a major impact on EP's projections in the House.  Several races had moved to the brink of flipping with the other pundits' changes.  In five races, a fourth pundit update was the catalyst to flip them to red.  Those five include Arizona CD-8, New Jersey CD-3, Ohio CD-18, Pennsylvania CD-10 and Texas CD-23.  All five move from Weak DEM Hold to Weak GOP Gain giving Republicans the largest projected net gain of House seats so far at 53.  The House tally stands at Republicans 232 and 203 Democrats.  That's precisely what the House count was on Election Eve in 2006 (counting Bernie Sanders' socialist seat in Vermont among the Democrats).



Filed under:  Ratings changes  House  AZ House  NJ House  OH House  PA House  TX House 

In the House, changes abound.  Ayers, McHenry and Associates, a Republican-leaning polling firm, continued its tour across America, publishing several polls from House races in the Midwest.  Ohio CD-16, the race between Democratic incumbent John Boccieri and Republican challenger Jim Renacci, is red today due to Renacci's 49-35 lead in an Ayers McHenry survey of the district.

The third force of change in today's House ratings is a boatload of ratings changes released by CQPolitics yesterday.  The online magazine updated their rating of 37 House races, 33 in favor of the GOP.  As a result of a rating change from Lean DEM to Toss-up, Florida CD-2 is projected to go to recent GOP primary winner, Steve Southerland.

All today's changes do not benefit the Republicans, however.  Democratic incumbent Bobby Bright's competitive re-election bid in Alabama's 2nd district appears more likely to succeed after CQPolitics changed their outlook on his race from Toss-up to Lean DEM.  Taken together, then, the GOP gains one more net seat in today's House projection, moving the tally here at EP to 220 Democrats and 215 Republicans.



Filed under:  Ratings changes  AL House  CA Governor  FL House  OH House 

House District 12.  Pat Tiberi is one of just seven Republican incumbents who are on Election Projection's hotly-contested House race list.  The main reason he is here is because the Democrats have been able to muster a solid challenger this year in Franklin County Commissioner Paula Brooks.  Initially, her entry into the race for this ever-so-slightly Democratic-leaning district gave pundits reason to view Tiberi as vulnerable.  While his re-election remains in question, his fundraising ability and work ethic on the campaign trail are not.  As the election season begins to heat up in earnest, Tiberi seems less and less vulnerable.  This race is listed as a Mod GOP Hold, but don't be surprised if it becomes "previously competitive" before the fall.

House District 13:  Some races are close because of district demographics, other due to battered incumbents, still others from open seats they sometimes leave behind.  Democrat Betty Sutton is in a contested battle for none of those reasons.  After winning her first two elections with over 60% of the vote, she is looking at a tough re-election this year for one reason - the war chest presumptive GOP nominee, Tom Ganley, brings to the race.  He forwarded over $1 million from his aborted Senate campaign and now has twice that on hand.  By comparison, Sutton's $280,000 seems woefully wanting.  Even so, this is a Democratic district, and Sutton's ties to big labor in this blue-collar area will suit her well.  Until polls come out showing otherwise, she is still projected to garner a close but comfortable Mod DEM Hold.

House District 15:  Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy's battle with Republican Steve Stivers for outgoing GOP congresswoman, Deborah Pryce was a nasty affair.  But it worked for Kilroy as she prevailed with just a plurality of the vote.  This year - as is the case in so many House races - she won't be helped along by a Democratic-friendly tide in her rematch with Stivers.  While I see district 1 as the most likely GOP takeover in the state, Charlie Cook believes a Stivers win here is even more likely.  Call it another Weak GOP Gain.

House District 16:  This race is similar in many respects to District 15 - like Mary Jo Kilroy, Democratic incumbent John Boccieri won his first term two years ago, and like her, he faces a much different political climate this year.  Unlike her, however, he holds nearly a three-to-one advantage in cash on hand over his closest GOP rival.  Money is key in politics, as we all know, and that advantage gives him a much more comfortable starting position than Kilroy has.  Nevertheless, one underestimates the coming GOP tide at one's peril, and GOP frontrunner Jim Renacci should not be taken lightly.  This race starts as a Weak DEM Hold.

House District 18:  Finally, there's Zack Space, the Democratic incumbent with the cool name.  He was part of the first blue wave back in 2006, earning an easy victory in the wake of disgraced GOP incumbent Bob Ney's retirement and subsequent prison term.  Enjoying the second blue wave two years ago, he won re-election without much trouble.  In a red year, in this rural district won by John McCain with 53% of the vote, Space should be near the top of the vulnerability scale.  That's not so much the case.  On the one hand, Republicans could not get a first-tier challenger to run against him. And on the other, he just happens to be a very effective fundraiser who will enjoy a substantial money advantage this election season.  Those factors don't completely remove him from danger.  His re-election chances are projected as a Weak DEM Hold.

With Ohio's eight tracked races, you'll definitely want to make the Ohio state page a frequent stop.

Next stop:  Oklahoma



Filed under:  Ohio  OH Senate  OH House  OH Governor 

Senate:  George Voinovich, one of the "RINO-est" senators outside the northeast, has decided not to run for re-election in 2010.  His exit leaves a very competitive open seat behind.   Vying to keep the seat in Republican hands is GOP frontrunner Rob Portman, a former congressman from Ohio and OMB director under George W.  He should have no problem securing the Republican nomination.   Who the Democratic nominee will be is a bit more cloudy.  Lt. Governor Lee Fisher has a small lead in the polls, but Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner is a solid candidate with statewide appeal.  Polls show the race between Portman and either Democrat to be very close - neck-and-neck, in fact.  Given that Portman should be less well known than his potential rivals, I'll give him a Weak GOP Hold.  That said, if you want to see an exciting race currently held by the GOP, this is definitely one to watch.

Governor:  The travails of the GOP in Ohio might have been brought on by several factors, but you have to list former Governor Bob Taft as one of the principle culprits.  In late 2005, he recorded the lowest approval rating I've ever seen. That November, Zogby pegged his approval at an unthinkable 6.5%!  Term-limited in 2006, he left his party's chances of retaining his seat in shambles.  Democrat Ted Strickland easily won that election, trouncing Republican Ken Blackwell by 23 points.  This year things won't come so easy for the first-term governor, however.  The lead weights around the Ohio GOP are mostly gone now, and polls show him in a heated battle against former Ohio congressman, John Kasich.   They're locked in a razor-close contest that's sure to go down to the wire.  In the end, I believe the red wave will propel Kasich to a narrow victory.  Thus, the preliminary projection is Weak GOP Gain.

In the next post, we'll look at Ohio's six competitive House races.



Filed under:  Ohio  OH Senate  OH House  OH Governor