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| 2010 Elections - Oregon Governor's Race |
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| Wednesday, May 19, 2010 |
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| Oregon primary results - race tracking initiated |
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Out west, Oregonians picked their parties nominees yesterday - well, at least they counted the votes yesterday. Oregon instituted all vote-by-mail elections in 1998. The
winners are listed below. In the most-watched primary race in the state, former Demcoratic Governor John Kitzhaber beat former Secretary of State Bill Bradbury in a battle of state
political heavyweights. Chris Dudley bested a crowded field of Republicans to win the GOP nomination. The only poll out between Kitzhaber and Dudley puts them in a 41-41
dead heat. I'll give the edge to the Democrat until another poll comes out to break the tie.
Senate
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Democratic Primary
Ron Wyden - inc |
Republican Primary
Jim Huffman |
Governor
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Democratic Primary
John Kitzhaber |
Republican Primary
Chris Dudley |
District 1
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Democratic Primary
David Wu - inc |
Republican Primary
Rob Cornilles |
District 3
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Democratic Primary
Earl Blumenauer - inc |
Republican Primary
none |
District 4
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Democratic Primary
none |
Republican Primary
Art Robinson |
District 5
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Democratic Primary
none |
Republican Primary
Scott Bruun |
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Tracking for the Senate and gubernatorial races and Schrader's re-election bid in District 5 has been initiated. Only one rating change resulted - Kitzhaber's outlook went from
Mod DEM Hold to Weak DEM Hold. Check out the
Oregon state page on a regular basis to follow the details of these races.
Filed under:
Oregon
OR Senate
OR House
OR Governor
posted by Scott Elliott at 9:57pm 05/19/10::
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| Saturday, April 24, 2010 |
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| Fifty state tour - Oregon preview |
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| This state is part of the "solid west coast" in presidential elections. Along with California and Washington, Oregon completes a trifecta of reliable blue electoral vote bounties.
Not since George Bush Sr. took California back in 1988 has any one of these states voted Republican. And Oregon's last dance with a Republican in a presidential election was 1984,
the year everybody but Minnesota danced with Ronald Reagan. And Democratic dominance in the state extends well beyond the top line of the ballot. After GOPer Gordon
Smith was defeated in his Senate re-election bid in 2008, Oregon's congressional delegation now consists of 2 Democratic senators and 4 Democratic representatives. Greg Walden
from District 2 is the lone Republican member. An interesting note about the five Oregon congressional districts - since 2000, not once has any House race - Democrat or Republican -
been decided by less than 9 points.
Senate: In a liberal state like Oregon, Ron Wyden fits right in. Though he has acquired a reputation for bi-partisanship and independence, his voting record
belies a solid liberal ideology. His liberal composite score over the years as calculated by the National Journal is right at 80%. That mark falls in line with the prevailing
mindset of Oregonians, and provides him with strong popularity in the state. As a result - and aided by $2.8 million war chest - Wyden will not face a credible threat to a third term this
year. Instead, he'll easily win a Solid DEM Hold.
Governor: Another reason Wyden won't face a viable GOP challenger in 2010 is because any Republican with designs on a statewide office this year sees winning the
open Governor's Mansion as an easier task. Incumbent Democratic Governor Ted Kulongoski is term-limited, so an open seat adds extra appeal to GOP candidates Frankly,
however, the Republicans probably don't have a legitimate shot at this office either. With either Secretary of State Bill Bradbury or former Governor John Kitzaber sure to win the
Democratic nomination, any Republican nominee faces a long uphill road to victory in November. We'll start this race off as a Mod DEM Hold.
House District 5: Despite the fact that there hasn't been a close congressional race in Oregon in years, Republicans are excited about their chances to unseat
Democratic Rep. Kurt Schrader in this Salem-based district. They feel State Representative Scott Bruun is the type of candidate who can present the incumbent with problems,
especially in a year when the red winds are blowing. Currently, all four on my pundit panel rate this race as lean Democrat. That lands it squarely in the Weak DEM Hold category here at Election Projection. I suggest keeping an eye on this one as a good measuring stick against the Republican tide. If this
race moves toward Bruun, it should indicate a very big Republican wave. If it becomes less vulnerable for Schrader in the coming months, that may mean a softening of the GOP
momentum nationwide heading toward Election Day.
The rest of the story is available on the Oregon state page. Don't miss it!
Next stop: Pennsylvania
Filed under:
Oregon
OR Senate
OR House
OR Governor
posted by Scott Elliott at 2:46pm 04/24/10::
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