On a night when expectations of GOP fans were running high, both these results were good for Democrats.  Sestak's win gives them a stronger candidate in the general election against Republican nominee Pat Toomey.  And, aside from the obvious benefit of a seat held, Critz's victory will fuel optimism among Democratic observers that the alleged red wave coming in November may not be as strong as advertised.

I believe that thinking is premature and ignores the impact the blockbuster battle that was Sestak vs. Specter had on Democratic turnout.  While Specter's base in Philadelphia and suburbs were nominal at best, Sestak was very strong in western PA, wracking up 15 to 20 point victories in some counties - including several of the 8 counties which hold at least of sliver of the gerrymandered 12th.  I interpret these numbers as an indication of an anti-incumbent mood that drove many Democrats to the polls and muted the anti-Democrat mood motivating Burns supporters.  Looking forward, this seat is still very vulnerable.  As I posited in my primary preview on Monday, this seat is more likely to go to the GOP in November when Seatak will be battling Toomey instead of Specter and independents will makeup a larger slice of the vote.

On to the winners...

With 12 total races on the tracking lists here at Election Projection, Pennsylvania state page will be one stop you'll want to make often.



Filed under:  Pennsylvania  PA Senate  PA House  PA Governor 

Also capturing the attention of political observers are Kentucky's Senate primaries.  Both parties are holding intriguing matches to decide who will battle for outgoing Republican Senator Jim Bunning's seat.  Democrats will choose between Lt. Governor Daniel Mongiardo and Attorney General Jack Conway.  A few weeks ago, Mongiardo appeared to be cruising to the nomination, leading by 15 points or more in the polls.  That lead has shrunk to almost nothing in recent days, however, and Election Day will dawn with Conway having a legitimate shot at a stunning come-from-behind victory.

On the Republican ballot, the son of Texas congressman and former GOP presidential candidate Ron Paul has moved well ahead of Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson.  Rand Paul now seems set to earn the nomination tomorrow.  Though both Grayson and Paul currently lead either Democrat in the polls, Grayson's margins are more substantial, a fact that re-enforces doubts about Paul in some Republican circles.  Time will tell how he connects with a general election electorate once the primaries have past.

Rounding out tomorrow's primary schedule is Oregon.  The Democratic gubernatorial race features two prominent Oregon politicians in Secretary of State Bill Bradbury and former Governor John Kitzhaber.  The winner of that battle will enter the general election campaign as a decided favorite to succeed term-limited Democratic Governor Ted Kulongowski.

Sometime tomorrow I post links to primary results so you can watch the returns come in.  For now, let me venture a few predictions.  In Pennsylvania, I predict Arlen Specter's party-switching gambit will end in defeat and Joe Sestak will advance to face Pat Toomey in November.  In PA-12, I have to give the slightest of edges to Democrat Mark Critz (Election Projection's margin of victory:  0.5%).  Turnout at the top of the ballot will propel Critz to a narrow win over Republican Tim Burns.  In Arkansas, Blanche Lincoln will survive by a margin you can fit on one hand.  Finally, it'll be Rand Paul vs. Dan Mongiardo in Kentucky as Conway's frantic comeback bid falls just short.

I have to add that I'm least confident about the PA-12 prediction.  Given the difficulty of polling House races in general and measuring turnout in this district specifically, projecting a winner can be little more than guesswork.  If Burns does pull it out, I think the ramifications for November will be great.  A Burns victory despite heavy get-out-the-vote motivation provided by the Specter/Sestak matchup will indicate just how much the enthusiasm gap truly favors the GOP.

Update:  You can follow primary election returns here.  Polls close in Kentucky at 6pm, in Pennsylvania at 8pm, in Arkansas at 8:30pm and in Oregon at 10pm.  (All times EDT)



Filed under:  Arkansas  Kentucky  Oregon  Pennsylvania  PA Senate  PA House  KY Senate 

House District 8:  Some districts, such as Pennsylvania's 4th, have races that seem to be moving toward the incumbent party candidate.  Others have the opposite feel.  This district is an example of the latter.  Initially thought of as safe, it has moved now to a Mod DEM Hold.  One main reason for the shift is Mike Fitzpatrick's decision to try again for the seat he won in 2004.  Though Democratic incumbent Patrick Murphy ousted him just two years later, Fitzpatrick brings to this race name recognition and the current letter-of-the-day after his name.  He also brings the support of local Republican machinery which should enable him to effectively play catch-up in the fundraising arena.  It's true that Murphy has a substantial war chest ($1.3 million), but Fitzpatrick's $470,000 ain't too shabby, especially considering his late start relative to the incumbent.  I predict this race will tighten before November, and, if the night meets moderate expectations for the GOP, don't be surprised to count it among the list of Republican takeovers.

House District 10:  This district has a legitimate rightward lean.  Its Cook PVI is R+8.  Incumbent Democrat Chris Carney has the requisite "conservative" label attached to the D after his name, otherwise he probably would not be the incumbent right now.  His victory in 2006 was largely due to the sex scandal that was Don Sherwood's undoing, but he relied heavily on conservative credentials for his 2008 triumph.  This year, his bid for a third term is a microcosm of the political forces at work nationwide.  Like so many other Democratic incumbents, he faces both the consequences of a yes vote for Obamacare and a Republican candidate backed by Tea Party activists.  Chiropractor David Madeira is just the type of novice candidate that could excite this conservative-leaning area no doubt reeling from Carney's Obamacare vote.  And this is just the type of race that can be impacted by the Tea Party movement.  Right now this race projects as a Weak DEM Hold, but it exudes the urge to flip to red by Election Day.  However, if that is to be the case, Madeira or Tom Marino, the other possible nominee, will have to overcome a substantial financial deficit.  Carney has $665,000 in the bank.  Neither Madeira nor Marino has eclipsed six figures yet in that department.

House District 11:  Democrat incumbent Paul Kanjorski has faced Republican Lou Barletta before - twice, in fact.  In 2002, Kanjorski won the first match up with 56% of the vote.  Six years later, the two butted heads again.  This time, even while President Obama was garnering 57% of the vote in the district, Kanjorski needed all the help he could get to make it to 52%.  The climate has changed for round three, and, for Barletta, that could make all the difference.  Two factors to keep in mind as we move toward the primaries and then onto the general election.  First, how much fight will Corey O'Brien, Kanjorski's primary opponent exert on the incumbent, and, second, how effective will Barletta be in closing an enormous fundraising gap which Kanjorski now leads 6 to 1?  Time will tell, of course, but for now this race is classified as a Weak DEM Hold.

House District 12:  The late John Murtha's unexpected passing has left this seat open and very much in play.  At a Cook PVI of R+1, this district is about as balanced as you can get.  However, the coincidence of the special election to fill Murtha's seat with the statewide primary on May 18 may help Democrats retain it.  That's because in Pennsylvania's closed primary format, the Democrats' 2-1 edge in voter registration here provides them with a structural turnout advantage.  Yet, polls and pundit ratings would give the GOP a slight edge right now with Republican nominee Tim Burns leading the Democrats' pick Mark Critz by 3 in Public Policy Polling's mid-April survey.  In light of that, the projection for the special election is a Weak GOP Gain.  Given the potential for Democratic turnout to be higher proportionally for this special election than they can expect to see in November, if they do lose the seat in 3 weeks, it will be a very difficult task to take it back in 6 months.  On the other hand, if Critz is victorious, this district is sure to land right back on the highly-vulnerable list once the special election dust settles.

House District 15:  At first glance, Bethlehem Mayor John Callahan appears to sit in an unusually strong position as a congressional challenger.  He is the party's first choice to run against the Republican incumbent in a district which boasts a slight Democratic lean, and his cash on hand outpaces the incumbent by $6000 - something almost unheard of this early in a congressional race.  Yet, the projection for this race is not all that close.  Callahan's main problem is an issue of timing.  Had he contested for this seat two years ago, he would no doubt be poised to win it.  This year, however, the climate just doesn't suit Democratic candidates who have a penchant for raising taxes.  (As Bethlehem mayor, he advocated a 17% increase in the local sales tax.)  Illustrating voter sentiment, a January poll conducted for incumbent Charlie Dent's campaign shows Dent with an overwhelming 53% to 27% lead over Callahan.  Yes, this is a partisan poll, but Callahan's climb is undeniably substantial even with the positives he has going for him.  The opening projection is a Mod GOP Hold for Dent.  While this race could tighten, if could also widen if Callahan cannot counter the tax and spend mantle Dent is sure to try to pin on him.

House District 17:  After re-districting gave this district a much stronger Republican lean, Democratic incumbent Tim Holden should have had a difficult, if not impossible, challenge holding onto the House seat here.  Instead, Holden has used a conservative voting record and strong personal ties to the more Republican areas of the district to win the last several elections without any trouble - he claimed 64% of the vote here while President Obama could manage just 48%.  Republicans attribute his easy re-elections to a lack of formidable challengers, a shortcoming they think they can remedy this cycle.  State Senator Dave Argull, they believe, can be the threat Holden has not yet faced, and his strength is enhanced by the prevailing political winds.  It remains to be seen if voters in the district will forgive him for voting in his current job for an unpopular legislative pay raise, a move for which he has since apologized.  Pundits appear to view Argull's candidacy in a positive light, rating this race as competitive even considering Holden's previous overwhelming victories.  Based on those sentiments, I rate this race a Mod DEM Hold.

The Pennsylvania state page is one resource you'll want to take full advantage of.

Next stop:  Rhode Island



Filed under:  Pennsylvania  PA Senate  PA House  PA Governor 

Senate:  As a former Republican, Arlen Specter cannot be happy with his current situation.  Seeing easier access to power and a less doubtful path to re-election, Specter granted the Democrats a then-filibuster-proof majority in the Senate by switching parties last April.  That move, in his mind I'm sure, should have made another term a strong likelihood for him.  (At that time, he was trailing badly to his primary opponent Pat Toomey.)  Unfortunately for him, the switcharoo did not work as he had planned.  Instead of breezing to another term against Toomey in the general election, he's now facing a strong primary challenge from within his new party in Congressman Joe Sestak - and he continues to trail Toomey in the polls.  Sestak's fortunes have faded a bit here lately, so it looks like Specter will at least win the nomination.  Once he gets to the general, though, I've become more convinced with each passing poll that Toomey can actually beat him.  That sentiment is reflected in the Weak GOP Gain projection I'm giving this race to start.

Governor:  Any misgivings I have about Pennsylvania's willingness to elect a Republican to statewide office (i.e. Toomey beating Specter) is somewhat allayed by the current outlook in this race.  It appears at the moment that outgoing Democratic Governor Ed Rendell will take the (D) with him as he leaves.  That's because State Attorney General Tom Corbett, the presumptive GOP nominee, leads all Democratic contenders by double-digits in the polls.  His closest rival is Dan Onorato, an Allegheny county executive.  That's good news for Democrats as he is also the front runner for the nomination.  Corbett's strength in the polls is another demonstration of what may be in store for the Democrats nationwide come November.  In what should be at worst an even-money race for them, this contest is projected as a Weak GOP Gain, and it could be argued that projection is calling it too close.

House District 3:  In a classic partisan wave victory, Democrat Kathy Dahlkemper defeated incumbent GOP Congressman Phil English in 2008.  In 2010, the classic power of incumbency gives her a good early position in her quest to keep the seat.  If the current political climate did not favor the GOP, she would probably coast to victory.  That, however, is not the case, and she does face a rocky road to re-election.  Republicans Paul Huber and Mike Kelly are self-fundable candidates who can give Dahlkemper a run for her money.  Either could win the nomination, and either would point to Dahlkemper's Obamacare cave in the general election.  Like Bart Stupak, she changed her vote from no to yes at the last minute.  That decision alone brings her race into play.  Time will tell if the eventual GOP nominee can tighten this race from its current Mod DEM Hold rating.

House District 4:  This district claims a Cook PVI rating of R+6, and Democratic incumbent Jason Altmire has won two elections here during Democratic wave years.  Given those facts, one might expect this seat to be imminently vulnerable for the blue team.  While it is certainly in play, it is not, however, on anyone's short list of probable GOP takeovers.  Sure, the GOP might win here if the Republican wave is of tidal proportions, but Altmire has sticking power this year due to the fact that he has nearly $1.2 million on hand - and no formidable Republicans challenging him.  For the moment, this race is a Mod DEM Hold, though it's a coin flip as to whether it even stays on Election Projection's tracking list.

House District 6:  With his less-than-stellar conservative voting record, GOP incumbent Jim Gerlach isn't particularly well-liked in purist conservative circles, and he has biennially had a major target on his back fastened by Democrats eager to get rid of him.  Nevertheless, he keeps on winning elections - even in huge Democratic cycles.  Last year, Democrats appeared to finally get their wish as he opted to run for governor.  That plan soon changed, and in January he announced his intent to run for re-election to his House seat.  His change of heart had a profound effect on this race.  As Charlie Cook observes, "ever since Gerlach abandoned his run for governor and filed for re-election, Democrats have been a total mess."  And though he trails mightily against wealthy Democrat Doug Pike in fundraising, Cook attributes that to his "gubernatorial detour" and says "come the fall, Gerlach should have the money he needs to make his case."  With that in mind, this race has moved from likely Democratic pickup without him in the race to lean and now likely GOP retention since he's jumped back in.  We'll see how long the current Mod GOP Hold rating lasts, or if the prevailing trend eventually removes him from the vulnerable list altogether.

That's enough for this first installment.  In this pivotal state, we still have seven more competitive House races to go.  I'll cover the rest in the next post.



Filed under:  Pennsylvania  PA Senate  PA House  PA Governor 

So, the Pennsylvania Senate race becomes the 6 sixth projected GOP pickup - not counting Brown's victory in Massachusetts last week and moves the projected Senate tally to 51 Democrats, 47 Republicans and 2 Independents.  The next 5 takeovers needed to regain the Senate majority will be much more difficult to come by for the GOP.  Yes, there's a big red wave brewing but, unlike the House where the GOP has a decent shot at power, the odds of taking the Senate remain very low, probably around 10% in my estimation.



Filed under:  Ratings changes  Senate  Pennsylvania  PA Senate