Senate:  Jim DeMint won this seat in 2004.  For over forty years prior, Fritz Hollings held it in Democratic hands.  Interestingly, though Hollings served seven 6-years terms, he claimed the title of senior senator from South Carolina for just his last two years in office, thanks to Strom Thurmond's historic 9 terms which ended in 2002.  This year, the pronounced Republican lean of the state and favorable political winds provide a safe environment for DeMint to seek re-election.  A favorite among conservatives - the National Journal has ranked him the number one conservative senator multiple times since he took office in 2003 - he'll face no major obstacles earning a second term in a Solid GOP Hold in this state full of conservative voters.

Governor:  Republican incumbent Mark Sanford's highly publicized moral sins may have made headlines for months, but they won't keep him from running for another term in Columbia.  Term-limits will.  Sanford must leave office at this end of this his second term.  The likely Republican nominee for this open governorship race is hard to determine.  Rasmussen released a survey of GOP primary hopefuls back in March which showed no candidate in a crowded field polling better than 21% and no less than four candidates polling in double-digits.  The same kind of free-for-all exists on the Democratic side where the top three in the Rasmussen poll are stuck between 12% and 16%.  Regardless who emerges from the respective primary battles to face off in the general election, the GOP nominee will start off with a significant advantage.  This isn't a done deal for the GOP that Senator DeMint enjoys in the Senate race, but it should be a moderately easy high-single-digit Mod GOP Hold.

House District 5:  Democrat John Spratt has persevered through difficult cycles (1994 and 2006) and easy cycles (most of the rest) during his 14 terms in the House, but 2010 may turn out to be his most difficult re-election challenge.  Spratt holds the distinction of representing the most Republican district (R+7) of any Democrat who voted for both the cap and trade and health care bills.  Talk about cultivating a difficult path to a 15th term!  Hoping to take advantage of the tension Spratt's votes have created with his constituents, Republican Mick Mulvaney will attempt to unseat the veteran congressman.  Mulvaney may not be the best candidate due to his Charlotte-based roots in this largely rural district.  Yet, those rural voters are likely among the most disillusioned with the incumbent's recent voting record.  Look for a competitive race, but give the Spratt the edge right now, a Mod DEM Hold.

Check out the South Carolina state page for more information on these and other races.

Next stop:  South Dakota



Filed under:  South Carolina  SC Senate  SC House  SC Governor