Senate:  John Thune is a well-spoken, classy senator who had the honor of unseating Democrat Tom Daschle while Daschle was Senator majority leader.  That was in 2004, just two years after he narrowly lost his first Senate attempt against Democrat Tim Johnson.  Thune's loss in 2002 was the only competitive Senate race the GOP didn't win that year, but it didn't dim Thune's rising star.  This year, Thune is up for re-election for the first time.  As the target of presidential rumors, Thune will have no problem holding his seat in South Dakota.  Without a Democrat to challenge him, his Solid GOP Hold re-election bid is just a formality.  The most interesting facet of this election, I believe, is what Thune will do with his enormous $5 million war chest in a race without an opponent.  Might it come in handy for a White House run?

Governor:  Republican Mike Rounds first won the governorship here in 2002 after he beat two stronger and better funded Republicans to gain the nomination.  As the two of them plastered each other with mud and vitriol, Rounds scooped up all the voters turned off by the fighting above and slipped away with one of the biggest upsets in South Dakota history.  Now, 8 years and a re-election later, Rounds will finish up his second term in a few months.  He is term-limited, so he won't be able to seek a third term.  Even with him out of the picture, though, this race should be a easy hold for the GOP as long as primary front runner Lt. Governor Dennis Daugaard takes care of business and wins the nomination.  For their part, Democrats landed a solid candidate when state Senator Scott Heidepriem joined the fray.  He is the minority leader in the state Senate and ensures this race will not be a formality.  Polls give Daugaard a large and growing lead in this race, so I'm rating it a Strong GOP Hold to start.

House At Large District:  Stephanie Herseth, as she was known at the time, won a special election in June of 2004 to replace former Governor Bill Janklow, who had resigned in the wake of a vehicular manslaughter conviction in January that year.  Herseth had lost a close race against Janklow in 2002, so she was a natural pick to try for the seat he vacated.  After winning a full term later in 2004, she has since used a more conservative voting record to cruise to two solid re-election victories in 2006 and 2008.  This year, GOP strategists think Herseth-Sandlin, as she has been known since her 2007 marriage broke the hearts of many single male fans of politics, may be vulnerable to a rising Republican tide.  Though she would be very hard to beat, pundits have begun to characterize this race as more competitive than previously thought.  The rating here is Mod DEM Hold.  If the GOP ends up winning this one, I believe that will mean the Democratic majority is history.  Instead of striving for 40 seats, the GOP will be pushing 50 or more if SD-AL turns red.

Click here for the South Dakota state page.

Next stop:  Tennessee



Filed under:  South Dakota  SD Senate  SD House  SD Governor