Party nominees for two highly-vulnerable Democratic House seats will also be determined today.  A crowded field on both sides battle for outgoing Democratic Congressman Bart Gordon's District 6 seat.  In District 8, John Tanner, another retiring Democrat, will leave his seat for one of five Republicans or two Democrats vying for party nods there.  Both seats are currently projected to go to the Republicans on Election Day.

Once the returns start coming in this evening, you can track them here.



Filed under:  Tennessee  TN House  TN Governor 

Governor:  Democrat Phil Bredesen won re-election in 2006 with 69% of the vote.  Too bad for Democrats, the well-liked incumbent is barred from a third term.  Instead of a relatively easy hold, which I imagine a Bredesen run would have represented, Democrats are faced with a daunting task of trying to elect a non-incumbent to the statehouse of a strengthening GOP state in the midst of a strengthening GOP wind.  That's probably just too much to expect, and the projection here at EP bears that out.  Apparently, Democrats also agree with that assessment - only Mike McWherter, who is the son of former Governor Ned Ray McWherter but has not held elected office, decided to jump in.  On the Republican side, legitimate candidates abound.  Congressman Zach Wamp polled best in a GOP primary survey taken last summer, but Knoxville Mayor Bill Haslam or State Senator Ron Ramsey could win the nomination and would be favored to win the general election as well.  The winner of the primary contest in the end will most likely be the Tennessee's next governor.  However, pinpointing the margin is a bit more difficult.  It could range from a close but comfortable victory to a blowout.  The initial projection falls somewhere in between, a Strong GOP Gain.

House District 6:  Of the two very vulnerable seats on EP's tracking list from Tennessee, this one is by far the most troublesome for Democrats.  With a PVI of R+13, this seat would be a challenge for Democrats even if incumbent Bart Gordon were seeking re-election.  Since he's not, this race is all but gone.  In fact, in the latest Most Likely Takeover list for the House, this district ranks number one.  At CQ Politics, it occupies an extremely rare position - in the "Safe" category for the opposition party!  There are several candidates in the running for both nominations, but I couldn't find any polling that would help determine who the front runners are right now.  No matter, whoever wins the GOP nomination will easily and handily beat whomever wins the Democratic nomination.  The rating starts off as a Mod GOP Gain, a rating that has nowhere to go but in the GOP's direction.

House District 8:  Though District 8 is not nearly as vulnerable as District 6, it nevertheless represents a prime pick-up opportunity for the GOP with Democratic incumbent John Tanner's decision to forego another run.  This is another district with a strong GOP lean (PVI R+6), and in an open seat battle, the Republican nominee will have an advantage, especially with the decidedly Republican-favored mood out there.  While three of the pundits on my pundit panel rate this race a toss-up, Larry Sabato moved it into the "Lean GOP" category soon after Tanner announced his intentions.  My hunch is that he'll be proven prescient, and I fully expect the others to eventually follow suit.  Unlike District 8, the front runners are already clear on both sides.  State Senator Roy Herron looks to be the Democratic nominee.  For the Republicans, Christian gospel singer Steve Fincher is out in front.  He raised $300,000 within weeks of announcing his candidacy largely from his presumptive fans throughout the rural reaches of this districts and brings a squeaky-clean image that will be hard for his detractors to attack.  Though Herron is a strong candidate who will put up a decent fight here, the newcomer Fincher should score a Weak GOP Gain unless he turns out to be way off key as a political candidate.

You can find the rest of story on the Tennessee state page.

Next stop:  Texas



Filed under:  Tennessee  TN House  TN Governor