Since I had been keeping up with changes made by the other three on my pundit panel, CQ Politics' new set of updates, numbering 31-2 in favor of the GOP, had a major impact on EP's projections in the House.  Several races had moved to the brink of flipping with the other pundits' changes.  In five races, a fourth pundit update was the catalyst to flip them to red.  Those five include Arizona CD-8, New Jersey CD-3, Ohio CD-18, Pennsylvania CD-10 and Texas CD-23.  All five move from Weak DEM Hold to Weak GOP Gain giving Republicans the largest projected net gain of House seats so far at 53.  The House tally stands at Republicans 232 and 203 Democrats.  That's precisely what the House count was on Election Eve in 2006 (counting Bernie Sanders' socialist seat in Vermont among the Democrats).



Filed under:  Ratings changes  House  AZ House  NJ House  OH House  PA House  TX House 

Governor:  …and, since George W. beat Ann "Ma" Richards, the Lone Star State's Democratic matriarch and sitting governor at the time, for the statehouse in 1994, so has the top executive office in the state.  Rick Perry was Bush's lieutenant governor, becoming interim top dog upon his boss' 2000 presidential triumph.  He has since run successfully for election in his own right in 2002 and for re-election four years later.  His path to re-election in 2010 got difficult, however, even before the primaries due to a intra-party battle he waged with Senator Hutchison and Tea Party favorite, Debra Medina.  Perry eventually won an easier victory than many had expected, averting a nasty runoff election in the process by grabbing 51% of the vote.  On the Democratic side, former Houston Mayor Bill White breezed to the nomination with over three-quarters of the vote.  The Perry-White match up will be a close race all the way.  Unfortunately for Perry, his longevity in Austin may be wearing thin his welcome, and, as a result, he stands to benefit less from the Republican mood in November.  Mayor White certainly has a shot at knocking off the incumbent, but current polls give Perry a slight lead.  We'll go with that here and project a Mod GOP Hold (which borders on a weak GOP hold) for the time being.

House District 17:  Congressman Chet Edwards represents the most Republican district in the nation held by a Democrat.  With a Cook PVI of R+20, the fact that Edwards remains on Capitol Hill is a testament to the relationship he has developed in this district.  Over the years, he has withstood the red tsunami of 1994 and GOP-led redistricting in 2004 that produced the highly-Republican district in which he now runs for an eleventh term.  However, as Cook points out, "Edwards overcame a rough climate in 1994 and a rough district in 2004, but he has never had to overcome both."  And this year is shaping up to be one of his toughest election challenges.  Signs are he understands what he faces.  Edwards' votes against Cap and Trade and Obamacare show he is trying hard not to disrupt the good vibes he has cultivated with his conservative constituents.  Whether that's enough to save this seat for the Democrats will be a story told only by the vote count on Election Night, and this race will be on lots of radars between now and then.  The Republican opposing him is Bill Flores who won a runoff primary vote to advance to the general election.  Flores is a political novice and self-described "limited government conservative."  His profile should sit well in this conservative district and make this race competitive.  However, Edwards has demonstrated great staying power before, so this race will be a Mod DEM Hold until Flores shows he can connect with the district's voters as well as Edwards has.

House District 23:  Republicans got the candidate they wanted to face off against Democratic incumbent Ciro Rodriguez when Hispanic-American Quico Canseco finally emerged from a Republican primary with the nomination.  This district boasts a large Hispanic population as well as a highly-engaged non-Hispanic one.  Where previous GOP nominees here did well with the latter group, Rodriguez's advantage among the former has been more than enough to ensure victory.  That may change this year.  I believe, given the makeup of this district and the national GOP tide, that Canseco brings the right kind of cross-section appeal to the race to gather the votes he'll need to ride Rodriguez out of office in November.  Pundits don't quite see it that way…yet.  (Stuart Rothenberg, for example, doesn't even have this race on his watch list)  So, until they do, this race will remain in the Mod DEM Hold category.

The lowdown on the Lone Star can be had on the Texas state page.

Next stop:  Utah



Filed under:  Texas  TX House  TX Governor 

No change in the gubernatorial preliminary projection resulted from adding in actual polling data.  Rick Perry is still projected to retain the seat in a Mod GOP Hold.  Tracking for the contested race in district 17 where Democrat Chet Edwards seeks re-election will commence after the runoff election in April determines the Republican nominee.



Filed under:  Primary results  Texas  TX House  TX Governor