House District 2:  In this Republican-leaning district, one number spells trouble for incumbent Democrat Glenn Nye - 62.  That's the percentage of the vote this district gave to new Republican Governor Bob McDonnell last November.  Unlike his last election attempt when Barack Obama's coattails and Republican incumbent Thelma Drake's weakness helped him to a narrow 4-point takeover, Nye will face a headwind and a well-funded, legitimate challenger this time.  However, there is one thing that may keep Nye in this race - or at least avoid an embarrassing blowout loss.  Two GOP candidates have plenty of money and appear ready to spend a lot of it fighting each other for the Republican nomination.  The front runner, and favorite of GOP insiders, is car salesman Scott Rigell.  Running against him is another wealthy Republican, Ben Loyola, a naval reservist who recently loaned his campaign $500,000.  Rigell should win, though Loyola is likely to remind primary voters of his $1000 contribution to Obama in 2008.  (Full disclosure: Rigell has been a reliable financial supporter for McDonnell and says he only donated to Obama for fear of Hillary Clinton's candidacy.)  My feeling is that Rigell will withstand that line of attack from Loyola.  After all, I'm sure plenty of the primary voters in this district had the same fear early in 2008.  After securing the nomination, Rigell will have the edge in the general election against Nye.  Give another Weak GOP Gain to the red team.

House District 5:  Another very vulnerable Democrat represents this district that stretches from Charlottesville down to Danville and Martinsville in southwestern Virginia.  This is Republican country, and incumbent Tom Perriello faces a daunting challenge to keep it in Democratic hands.  Republican primary front runner Robert Hurt is a state senator who already represents about a quarter of this district's voters in the state legislature.  His entry into the race late last year moved it to the toss-up category in the minds of some political observers - Stuart Rothenberg has since moved it to "Tilt R."  The projection here is Weak GOP Gain.  This is the kind of race one would number among the low-hanging GOP pick-up opportunities in a red wave election.  It should switch to red on Election Night, but keep an eye on it.  If Periello can survive, the night will not be the electoral landslide many expect, and the GOP will not be winning the majority in either Capitol Hill chamber.

House District 9:  There aren't many Democrats in congress who represent a district where Obama's notoriety is as acrid as it is in District 9.  Were it not for incumbent Rick Boucher's 15-term history in the district, he would not win another term in this environment.  As it is, he will have to rely on his long record of bringing federal dollars home to these coal mountains of southwestern Virginia to keep the 9th in Democratic hands.  How difficult a task that is will be determined by who runs against him.  Right now it appears he will face State Senator Morgan Griffith who resides just outside the district.  Republicans are hoping State Senator William Wampler will jump in, but that appears less likely as time goes by.  Boucher defeated Wampler's father in 1982 to first win this seat.  The junior Wampler would be the most difficult opponent for Bouchard to beat.  That's not to say Griffith can't be Boucher, however, and the incumbent must once again gain a strong crossover vote in this district which voted for Barack Obama at a dismal 40% clip.  Election Projection sees this race as a Mod DEM Hold at the moment, though it could certainly tighten before votes are cast.

House District 11:  Incumbent Gerry Connolly is member of the 2008 Democratic freshman class.  After 7-term Republican Tom Davis retired, Connolly won a convincing open-seat takeover over Keith Fimian.  While Fimian is back this year, filling his political outsider role, the strongest potential opponent to Connolly is Fairfax County Supervisor Pat Herrity.  Problem is, Herrity has to get past Fimian without sustaining too much damage.  In a March poll, Herrity led Fimian 42%-21%, so he looks poised to win what should be an expensive primary contest.  In the general, the prospects of the GOP seem fundamentally much improved over two years ago.  But whether Herrity can overcome Connolly's double-digit margin in 2008 and the benefits of incumbency he's accumulated since remains to be seen.  Currently, I give the incumbent a Mod DEM Hold.  Just as a Tom Periello victory in District 5 would signal a less-than-spectacular GOP House seat gain probably in the low 20's, a Connolly loss here likely would foreshadow a GOP gain of 50 seats or more.

Don't miss the Virginia state page for much more Old Dominion goodies.

Next stop:  Washington



Filed under:  Virginia  VA House 

New tally:  234 Democrats, 201 Republicans.



Filed under:  Ratings changes  Florida  FL House  Virginia  VA House  House 

Senate:  Mel Martinez, a Cuban-born GOP senator first elected in 2004, decided earlier this year not to run for re-election in 2010.  In August, he decided to end his term early and retire.  George LeMieux was appointed to replace him, but he, too, has decided against running.  Not so for the man who appointed LeMieux.  Governor Charlie Crist has thrown his moderate Republican hat into the race.  Mix that moderate ideology and good amount of early backing from national GOP powers that be with a favorite of the grass roots conservative movement (aka the Tea Partiers) and you have the makings of a lost opportunity.  This seat should stay in GOP hands, but a bruising primary between Crist and former Florida House Speaker and rising GOP star Marco Rubio could give the Democrats a chance to steal this one away.  My hunch is that Crist would have no problem winning the general election if he defeats Rubio in the primary.  Rubio's chances, however, are a bit more dicey, but he could win as well.  Until the primaries are over, a prediction in this race is a bit premature.  But that's never stopped me before!  I'll call it a Weak GOP Hold for now for the simple reason that this rating probably falls just about in the center of what is a broad range of possible outcomes.

Governor:  Since Crist seeks a Washington office, his residency in the Governor's Mansion will end.  The vacancy has given cause for a plethora of individuals to jump in the gubernatorial race.  Among the GOP hopefuls, it appears to be a two-man...er...one man - one woman race between State Senator Paula Dockery and former Congressman and failed Senate candidate Bill McCollum.  Polls give McCollum a big edge, though one has to wonder if name recognition may play a part in that.  On the Democratic side, CFO Alex Sink has the inside track to the nomination as things currently stand.  This is another difficult race predict this far out.  The results of the primaries loom large as do the candidates' performances on the post-primary campaign trail.  I'm going to call this a Weak GOP Hold, but, honestly, it is without much conviction.

House District 8:  Alan Grayson is no softly liberal.  Oh, he's a liberal for sure, but he's as hard as nails.  He refused to apologize for his now-famous declaration on the House floor during the healthcare debate that Republicans "want you to die quickly."  And this despite the fact that he's a freshman congressman from a GOP-leaning district.  That takes gumption, my friends.  It also puts him in a precarious position heading toward the midterms.  While the GOP has had several first-tier folks decline to run, this race is low-hanging fruit, to be sure, and the eventual GOP nominee should send Grayson back to defending whistleblowers and filing lawsuits against big bad government contractors.  This race is one of the most vulnerable.  It should end up a Weak GOP Gain.

House District 24:  Freshman Democratic Congresswoman Suzanne Kosmas bucked the norm by winning her first term in a Republican district by a landslide.  GOP incumbent Republican Tom Feeney's corruption problems and the big blue wave in 2008 provided Kosmas with an easy path to Washington.  Since arriving, she has shown centrists tendencies and is a member of the New Democrat Coalition.  These facts give her a good shot at not being a common one-term wave baby.  She will be tested, given the conservative bent of her constituency.  Against a big red wave, she may not get that second term.  For now, though, I see her hanging on in a Weak DEM Hold.

Another possibly competitive race in Florida which Election Projection will be tracking is in district 12, an open GOP seat vacated by Adam Putnam.  He declined to seek re-election in favor of a bid to become Florida's Commissioner of Agriculture.

Please check out the Florida state page for lots more cool stuff on the Sunshine State.

Next stop:  Georgia



Filed under:  Florida  FL Senate  FL House  FL Governor