A second statehouse joins Rhode Island in the Democratic takeover category.  After a suspicious poll from Rasmussen gave Republican Lt. Governor Brian Dubie a huge 20-point lead in Vermont back in June, he earned the projected nod to succeed his boss, retiring GOP Governor Jim Douglas.  However, Rasmussen's most recent attempt to gauge the race shows an enormous shift in Dubie's support.  He now trails Democratic nominee Peter Shumlin by a more-reasonable 3 points.  While this is still either man's race, it is now projected as a Weak DEM Gain.  The updated statehouse tally stands at 31 Republicans and 19 Democrats.



Filed under:  Ratings changes  Rhode Island  RI Governor  Vermont  VT Governor 

Senate:  That happened for the first time back in 1974.  Now, six terms and four decades later, Leahy is as safe as ever.  He is an influential figure on Capitol Hill, chairing the prominent Judiciary Committee, and claims the fourth longest tenure among Senate Democrats.  During his time in the Senate, he has participated in the confirmation hearings of every sitting Supreme Court justice.  With his far-reaching power and his consistent liberal voting record (he voted with a majority of the Democratic caucus 95.4% of the time in the 110th Congress), Leahy has achieved untouchable status in this small, liberal state.  This race is a lock, a Solid DEM Hold for the incumbent.  But I suppose for the sake of completeness, I should note that he faces an insignificant primary battle against physician Daniel Freilich and a no-more-daunting challenge against Republican Len Britton in the general election.

Governor:  I've highlighted before on Election Projection how gubernatorial elections are sometimes not nearly the partisan affairs Senate and House elections are.  In recent memory, there have been Democratic governors in such ruby red states as Wyoming, Oklahoma and Kansas, and Republican governors in blue stalwarts such as California, Massachusetts, New York, and, yes, Vermont.  Here in the Green Mountain State, the current governor is Republican Jim Douglas.  He has successfully sought re-election three time since first winning the governorship in 2002.  After four two-year terms, Douglas is calling it quits.  His second-in-command Brian Dubie gives the GOP a reasonable shot at retaining the Governor's Mansion come January.  Depending on the polling firm and the opponent tested, Dubie has a small but comfortable lead or is in a toss-up situation.  I did not see any polling on the Democratic field, but Deborah Markowitz, Vermont's secretary of state, appears to be the strongest Democrat against Dubie in general election tests.  The consensus right now, despite Rasmussen's outlook, is that the Democrats hold a slight advantage.  I'm inclined to agree; therefore, this race is projected as a Weak DEM Gain.

The Vermont state page is where you'll find much more information on the Green Mountain State.

Next stop:  Virginia



Filed under:  Vermont  VT Senate  VT Governor