And then there are three additional seats leaning slightly toward the Democrats.  Some more optimistic political observers might disagree with me that California, Washington and Wisconsin are not also toss-ups, but I still see Boxer, Murray and Feingold as favorites in those races.  Until more polling indicates differently, I will continue to hold that opinion.  That said, a couple of polls released this week have moved two of those three seats into the red column.  California and Washington are both colored crimson this morning as a result of a SurveyUSA poll from California and a Rasmussen poll out of Washington.

These two polls and the resulting projection updates are not enough to convince me Republicans will win those races, but it is certainly encouraging that the data now projects GOP victories there.  These updates are pivotal in that they move the balance of power in the Senate to 50 Republicans, 48 Democrats and 2 Independents.  Since the independents caucus with the Democrats, the GOP needs just one more seat to earn the majority.  Remarkable.



Filed under:  Ratings changes  California  CA Senate  Washington  WA Senate 

In Wyoming, popular Democratic Governor Dave Freudenthal is term-limited this year.  That's bad news for Democratic chances to hold the Governor's Mansion here.  Today's GOP primary will serve as the de facto deciding election in this race.  Auditor Rita Meyer narrowly leads three other strong GOP candidates in the field.  For the Democrats, Leslie Peterson enjoys comfortable leads in recent polling and should win the nod.

As returns come in this evening, you can track them here.

Update:  I incorrectly noted the GOP frontrunner in Wyoming's gubernatorial primary as "Matt Meyer."  It is in fact Auditor Rita Meyer.  Matt Mead, U.S. attorney, is also in the running.



Filed under:  Senate  Governors  Washington  WA Senate  Wyoming  WY Governor 

Election Projection currently projects 8 Democratic Senate seats to go red this year, countered by Ohio which is projected to go the other way.  That's a net seven seat gain which adds up to just three short of 51 total and the majority.  With these new developments, if the GOP can win the eight seats plus just two of four between Ohio, California, Washington and Connecticut, the majority in the Senate in 2011 will belong to them.  That's great news, but Blumenthal and Murray - as well as Boxer in CA and Fisher in OH - still hold the advantage in their respective races.  Still, the more seats in play, the better the chances for the red team.



Filed under:  Senate  Washington  WA Senate 

Senate:  Let me summarize Patty Murray's chances to gain a fourth term in 2010 like this.  Against Dino Rossi, she might lose in any political climate and would be even money in this climate.  Against anyone else, it would take a massive red tide to deny her another six years in Washington (DC, that is).  Now that it appears George Pataki will not engage Kirsten Gillibrand in NY and Tommy Thompson will decline a run against Russ Feingold in Wisconsin, Rossi's decision is perhaps the biggest unknown remaining in this election cycle.  If Rossi decides not to run - insiders peg the odds he will at 50-50 - there are four who are already in the race.  Of them, only State Senator Don Benton has run for office in the past.  The others, Clint Didier (whom this Redskins fan remembers fondly for his success as an NFL tight end), businessman Paul Akers, and public speaker and author Chris Widener, are unknown quantities in a political sense.  Though these contenders probably don't have the political chops to threaten Murray much, I have to highlight one SurveyUSA poll taken here.  Released in April, the poll gave Dino Rossi a whopping 10-point lead over Murray and showed the rest of the Republican hopefuls within the margin of error.  Whether this is an outlier poll or another indication of just how large the coming red wave may be is not known.  I'll withhold judgment until more polling data from the state is published.  As for this race's projection, it is always difficult to pinpoint an outlook when a major game-changer like Rossi is sitting on the sidelines contemplating a run.  Given the 50-50 change he won't run, I'll rate this race a tentative Strong DEM Hold.  But should Rossi declare, the race would immediately transform into a nail-biter.

House District 3:  Washington may be a liberal state overall, but this district boasts a good number of conservatives who make incumbent Brian Baird's decision to retire extra problematic for Democrats.  Interestingly this district rates a zero in Charlie Cook's PVI, meaning it closely mirrors nationwide partisan performance.  That also means it flows with the partisan tides, especially when no incumbent is running.  Thus, in this Republican environment, Baird's retirement gives the GOP an excellent pick-up opportunity.  Furthermore, because this district is split between the liberal-leaning Olympia area which is in the Seattle market and the more conservative Vancouver area down near Portland, Oregon, the Democrats must find a candidate that can appeal to both without alienating either.  To illustrate the challenge, Republicans were successful in picking up this seat in 1994 by portraying the incumbent Democrat as an Olympia liberal.  Currently, there are multiple candidates on both sides vying for the nominations.  The GOP is high on State Representative Jaime Herrera, a Latina who represents the heart of the district.  On the Democratic side, Craig Pridemore, a state senator, and Danny Heck, at TV station owner, are in so far.  I could find no polls testing the respective primary contests, but I believe Baird's exit has to lean this race toward the GOP.  Chalk up another Weak GOP Gain.

House District 8:  We finally come to a rare Republican seat on Election Projection's hotly-contested House race list.  It will be, in fact, the last such seat.  At present count, Election Projection is tracking 87 House races.  Of them, just 13 are GOP-held.  And like several other GOP seats on the list, this one is becoming more secure for the Republicans.  Initially, three-term incumbent Dave Reichert's seat looked like it might be very vulnerable.  Early on, he toyed with the idea of running against Murray for the Senate.  That would have left this open seat in a Democratic-leaning district very susceptible to a takeover.  However, he decided to remain in the race to keep his current job.  Also early on, wealthy Microsoft executive Suzan Del Bene announced she would run for the Democratic nomination here and quickly amassed a sizable campaign stash.  She added an Emily's list endorsement recently as well.  All that may not, however, be enough to seriously endanger Reichert, whose more liberal voting record actually fits well in this district.  In a race that is moving away from the challenger, the rating here is a Mod GOP Hold.

More on the Evergreen State, check out the Washington state page.

Next stop:  West Virginia



Filed under:  Washington  WA Senate  WA House