Delaware and Wisconsin were directly effected by the primaries.  Christine O'Donnell's victory over Mike Castle in the Republican primary in Delaware gives Democrat Chris Coons a decided advantage heading toward November.  His chances improved from a projected Weak GOP Gain to a much more favorable Strong DEM Hold.  If the GOP is to win a majority in the Senate, they'll most likely have to find 10 seats in other states now that this one has almost certainly slipped away.  They'll also need to have Dino Rossi rebound from recent poor polling against Democratic incumbent Patty Murray in Washington.  What looked like a golden pick-up opportunity just a week or so ago is not so encouraging now after two separate polls give Murray leads in the upper single digits.

On the bright side for Republicans is Ron Johnson's expectedly strong polling against Democratic incumbent Russ Feingold in Wisconsin.  The latest Rasmussen poll of the race gives Johnson a seven-point lead.  With no other polls published here recently, this contest moves from a projected Weak DEM Hold to a Mod GOP Gain.  All this movement leaves the projected Senate tally at 50 Democrats, 48 Republicans and 2 Independents.



Filed under:  Ratings changes  Delaware  DE Senate  Washington  WA Senate  Wisconsin  WI Senate 

In Wisconsin, the re-election bid for Democrat Russ Feingold has become surprisingly close.  Another Tea Party favorite, Ron Johnson, looks poised to win the GOP nomination today and earn the right to face Feingold in the general.  And polling indicates this Tea Party candidate is a real threat to Feingold in a race that would not be competitive in a normal political climate.  Election returns will be tracked here this evening as they come in.



Filed under:  New Hampshire  NH Senate  Wisconsin  WI Senate 

Countering those polls were twenty race rating changes from Stuart Rothenberg.  All twenty favored the Republicans.  As a result of Rothernberg's downgrade of Steve Kagen chances in Wisconsin's 8th district, Republicans are now projected to take that seat.  The race moves from Weak DEM Hold to Weak GOP Gain.  Incorporating these developments into the overall House projection brings the new projected balance of power to 218 Democrats and 217 Republicans.  After just a couple days as the party in control, the GOP relinquishes their projected House majority today.



Filed under:  Ratings changes  Illinois  IL House  New York  NY House  Wisconsin  WI House 

Benefiting Democrats is West Virginia's first district.  A Democratic poll completed on August 2 gives Democratic nominee Michael Oliverio a huge 52%-36% lead over Republican David McKinley.  The entire EP pundit panel rates this race a toss-up, so some doubt has to be cast on this polls results.

Two seats changed from blue to red from today's updates.  Just as a Democrat poll vaulted Oliverio into the lead, a Republican poll has moved Republican Adam Kinzinger ahead of incumbent Democrat, Debbie Halvorson.  And, like that poll, this one also raises suspicions.  Partisan polls do tend to be partisan.  That's why I adjust all these House polls before entering them in the calculations by deleting 2 points from the candidate of the pollster's party and adding 2 points to the other.  Even so, polls with large margins can still sway the results.

The second blue-to-red change comes out of Wisconsin where a We Ask America poll gives Republican Sean Duffy a decided edge over Democrat Julie Lassa to replace outgoing Congressman David Obey (D) in District 7.  Since the primaries have not occurred yet in Wisconsin, this change is a preliminary switch.  By the way, for those who doubt We Ask America's legitimacy as a pollster, here are some favorable comments about them.

These changes bring the net Republican gain in the House to a high so far this cycle at EP.  They are now projected to gain 35 seats while losing just 2.  The House tally moves to 223 Democrats and 212 Republicans, just 6 GOP gains away from a Republican majority.



Filed under:  House  Illinois  IL House  West Virginia  WV House  Wisconsin  WI House 

Senate:  Democrat Russ Feingold dodged the only major bullet on his way to re-election in 2010 when former Governor Tommy Thompson declined to run against him.  Speculation ran high up to his announcement that he would launch a challenge against the entrenched incumbent.  With his decision, though, the GOP lost its only real contender for this race.  Sure, several other Republicans are in the running, but Feingold will be a very difficult root to pull.  Even Thompson would have been no better than even money against him.  Take your pick between Republicans Dick Leinenkugel, Terrence Wall and Dave Westlake.  Feingold will easily triumph over them all.  In what could have been a toss-up, the sitting senator will now enjoy a Solid DEM Hold.

Governor:  When Tommy Thompson left the statehouse to take a spot in Bush's cabinet, Lt. Gov. Scott McCallum became governor.  He tried to earn the statehouse in his own right in 2002 but was defeated by Democrat Jim Doyle.  Four years later, Doyle won a second term over Congressman Mark Green.  This year, Doyle has decided against seeking a third term.  In his absence, two front runners have emerged from crowded fields on both sides.  For the GOP, Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker appears to be pulling away from former Congressman Mark Neumann, and Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett has become the presumed Democratic nominee.  Polls show this race moving the way of the Republican early on, so I'll give Walker a Weak GOP Gain for now.  However, this race could be an up and down affair in this closely divided state.

House District 7:  Two House races in Wisconsin are moderately competitive this cycle.  One, the 8th, is a battleground district that feels right at home on competitive House race lists.  The other, District 7, is in unfamiliar territory.  Incumbent Democrat David Obey has won 21 elections to the House, rarely enduring anything but landslides.  This year might be different.  As a big-spender on Capitol Hill, Obey has caught the ire of one Sarah Palin and the Tea Party movement.  Considering the national mood, Obey can't be considered safe.  On the other hand, apparent GOP nominee Sean Duffy has very little in the way of traditional political credentials.  What he does have is an unusual - and sometimes unflattering - "public record" as a part of the cast of MTV's Real World reality show back in 1997.  Adding to his potentially damaging personal story is his wife and fellow Real World cast member, Rachel Campos-Duffy, whose been described as an ultra-conservative loose cannon.  Nevertheless, the current political climate does present Obey with a challenging environment in which to seek re-election.  But for now this race barely registers.  Give it a Mod DEM Hold.  Like Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin in South Dakota and Gerry Connolly in Virginia, if Obey does lose, the GOP will be cruising to a 50-plus seat gain in the House.

House District 8:  After Republican Mark Green stepped aside to run for governor in 2006, Steve Kagen won this seat amid the Democratic wave that year.  Two years later, the man he defeated, Republican John Gard, tried to take it back for the GOP.  Alas, the second blue wave in as many cycles proved too much, and he lost round two against Kagen as well.  This year, Kagen will attempt something that no Democrat in a century has accomplished here - winning a third term.  In this narrowly divided district (PVI R+2), the national mood will make the feat more difficult than winning his first two terms.  Who he'll face in the general election is still to be determined, though the front runner in terms of cash on hand is businessman Reid Ribble.  As the filing deadline in Wisconsin is still over two months away and the primaries won't be held until September, gauging this race right now is mostly guesswork.  The initial projection based on pundit ratings gives Kagen an early Mod DEM Hold advantage.  But a lot can happen between now and September to alter the make-up of this one heading into a shortened general election season.

Check out the Wisconsin state page for more details.

Next stop:  Wyoming!



Filed under:  Wisconsin  WI Senate  WI House  WI Governor