Senate:  Democrat Russ Feingold dodged the only major bullet on his way to re-election in 2010 when former Governor Tommy Thompson declined to run against him.  Speculation ran high up to his announcement that he would launch a challenge against the entrenched incumbent.  With his decision, though, the GOP lost its only real contender for this race.  Sure, several other Republicans are in the running, but Feingold will be a very difficult root to pull.  Even Thompson would have been no better than even money against him.  Take your pick between Republicans Dick Leinenkugel, Terrence Wall and Dave Westlake.  Feingold will easily triumph over them all.  In what could have been a toss-up, the sitting senator will now enjoy a Solid DEM Hold.

Governor:  When Tommy Thompson left the statehouse to take a spot in Bush's cabinet, Lt. Gov. Scott McCallum became governor.  He tried to earn the statehouse in his own right in 2002 but was defeated by Democrat Jim Doyle.  Four years later, Doyle won a second term over Congressman Mark Green.  This year, Doyle has decided against seeking a third term.  In his absence, two front runners have emerged from crowded fields on both sides.  For the GOP, Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker appears to be pulling away from former Congressman Mark Neumann, and Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett has become the presumed Democratic nominee.  Polls show this race moving the way of the Republican early on, so I'll give Walker a Weak GOP Gain for now.  However, this race could be an up and down affair in this closely divided state.

House District 7:  Two House races in Wisconsin are moderately competitive this cycle.  One, the 8th, is a battleground district that feels right at home on competitive House race lists.  The other, District 7, is in unfamiliar territory.  Incumbent Democrat David Obey has won 21 elections to the House, rarely enduring anything but landslides.  This year might be different.  As a big-spender on Capitol Hill, Obey has caught the ire of one Sarah Palin and the Tea Party movement.  Considering the national mood, Obey can't be considered safe.  On the other hand, apparent GOP nominee Sean Duffy has very little in the way of traditional political credentials.  What he does have is an unusual - and sometimes unflattering - "public record" as a part of the cast of MTV's Real World reality show back in 1997.  Adding to his potentially damaging personal story is his wife and fellow Real World cast member, Rachel Campos-Duffy, whose been described as an ultra-conservative loose cannon.  Nevertheless, the current political climate does present Obey with a challenging environment in which to seek re-election.  But for now this race barely registers.  Give it a Mod DEM Hold.  Like Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin in South Dakota and Gerry Connolly in Virginia, if Obey does lose, the GOP will be cruising to a 50-plus seat gain in the House.

House District 8:  After Republican Mark Green stepped aside to run for governor in 2006, Steve Kagen won this seat amid the Democratic wave that year.  Two years later, the man he defeated, Republican John Gard, tried to take it back for the GOP.  Alas, the second blue wave in as many cycles proved too much, and he lost round two against Kagen as well.  This year, Kagen will attempt something that no Democrat in a century has accomplished here - winning a third term.  In this narrowly divided district (PVI R+2), the national mood will make the feat more difficult than winning his first two terms.  Who he'll face in the general election is still to be determined, though the front runner in terms of cash on hand is businessman Reid Ribble.  As the filing deadline in Wisconsin is still over two months away and the primaries won't be held until September, gauging this race right now is mostly guesswork.  The initial projection based on pundit ratings gives Kagen an early Mod DEM Hold advantage.  But a lot can happen between now and September to alter the make-up of this one heading into a shortened general election season.

Check out the Wisconsin state page for more details.

Next stop:  Wyoming!



Filed under:  Wisconsin  WI Senate  WI House  WI Governor