As a result of all this goodness, Republicans picked up 3 more projected House seats in Saturday's update.  Alabama CD-2, Florida CD-22 and West Virginia CD-1 all moved from Weak DEM Hold to Weak GOP Gain.  This is good news, of course, for red team fans, but it is pertinent to note that in all three races the Republican candidate is ahead by less than one percent.  It wouldn't take much to move one or more of them back to blue.

For now though, the GOP is enjoying its largest net House gain to date.  Forty-six more Republicans are projected to earn a seat in the House come January.  The tally stands at 225 Republicans and 210 Democrats.



Filed under:  Ratings changes  Alabama  AL House  Florida  FL House  West Virginia  WV House 

For a complete list of House races I'm tracking here at EP, check out the 2010 House page.  Also, you can find out a lot more information about these races and others on the Colorado, South Dakota and West Virginia state pages.



Filed under:  Ratings changes  Colorado  CO House  South Dakota  SD House  West Virginia  WV House 

Benefiting Democrats is West Virginia's first district.  A Democratic poll completed on August 2 gives Democratic nominee Michael Oliverio a huge 52%-36% lead over Republican David McKinley.  The entire EP pundit panel rates this race a toss-up, so some doubt has to be cast on this polls results.

Two seats changed from blue to red from today's updates.  Just as a Democrat poll vaulted Oliverio into the lead, a Republican poll has moved Republican Adam Kinzinger ahead of incumbent Democrat, Debbie Halvorson.  And, like that poll, this one also raises suspicions.  Partisan polls do tend to be partisan.  That's why I adjust all these House polls before entering them in the calculations by deleting 2 points from the candidate of the pollster's party and adding 2 points to the other.  Even so, polls with large margins can still sway the results.

The second blue-to-red change comes out of Wisconsin where a We Ask America poll gives Republican Sean Duffy a decided edge over Democrat Julie Lassa to replace outgoing Congressman David Obey (D) in District 7.  Since the primaries have not occurred yet in Wisconsin, this change is a preliminary switch.  By the way, for those who doubt We Ask America's legitimacy as a pollster, here are some favorable comments about them.

These changes bring the net Republican gain in the House to a high so far this cycle at EP.  They are now projected to gain 35 seats while losing just 2.  The House tally moves to 223 Democrats and 212 Republicans, just 6 GOP gains away from a Republican majority.



Filed under:  House  Illinois  IL House  West Virginia  WV House  Wisconsin  WI House 

A big change in the adjustment impacts the latest House projections, and the impact favors the GOP.  With an average lead by the generic Republican candidate increasing to 2.3%, the adjustment grows from 0.3 points to 1.1.  That's enough to push four more seats over to the red column in today's projections.  They include AL-2, ID-1, IL-14 and WV-1.  These newly-rosy districts move the overall House projection to 226 Democrats and 205 Republicans.  At 30, the net seat gain is at a highwater mark so far this cycle for the GOP.  Still, they would need 9 more to capture the majority in the House.



Filed under:  Ratings changes  House  AL House  ID House  IL House  WV House 

Here are the winners in the Mountain State yesterday.

You can follow the results by watching the returns come in over at Politico.com.



Filed under:  Nebraska  West Virginia  WV House 

House District 1:  There is no senate race this year and the governor is set for another 2 years as well.  So, we begin and end our hot-race preview with West Virginia's lone competitive House race.  As Democrat Allan Mollohan begins his run for a fifteenth term, he finds himself in an unenviable position on several fronts.  Like a boatload of other Democrats on Capitol Hill, he must navigate increasingly Republican seas, a threat that is exacerbated first by this district's significant lean toward the GOP (Cook PVI R+9) and then by his weak fundraising numbers so far this year.  He currently has just $280,000 cash on hand, essentially matching his probable GOP opponent, former state GOP Chairman David McKinley.  And Mollohan's troubles include internal partisan forces at work against him, too.  State Senator Michael Oliverio is mounting a primary challenge and using Mollohan's vote against cap and trade as a wedge to try to dislodge support of the Democratic base in the district.  While Mollohan shouldn't have much trouble gaining the nomination, any tacking to the left to shore up his base will likely prove detrimental to his appeal in the general election.  Pundits appear to just be waking up to Mollohan's serious degree of vulnerability this cycle.  Charlie Cook reacted first, moving this race to toss-up back in February.  Stuart Rothenberg followed, changing the rating to "Tilt Dem" last month.  Larry Sabato and CQ Politics, however, still rate Mollohan the likely winner.  As a result, Election Projection pegs this race as a Weak DEM Hold, but this is clearly a race moving in the direction of the Republicans.

West Virginia's state page has more details on this race and other facets of the Mountain State's political make-up.

Next stop:  Wisconsin



Filed under:  West Virginia  WV House 

House District 1:  There is no senate race this year and the governor is set for another 2 years as well.  So, we begin and end our hot-race preview with West Virginia's lone competitive House race.  As Democrat Allan Mollohan begins his run for a fifteenth term, he finds himself in an unenviable position on several fronts.  Like a boatload of other Democrats on Capitol Hill, he must navigate increasingly Republican seas, a threat that is exacerbated first by this district's significant lean toward the GOP (Cook PVI R+9) and then by his weak fundraising numbers so far this year.  He currently has just $280,000 cash on hand, essentially matching his probable GOP opponent, former state GOP Chairman David McKinley.  And Mollohan's troubles include internal partisan forces at work against him, too.  State Senator Michael Oliverio is mounting a primary challenge and using Mollohan's vote against cap and trade as a wedge to try to dislodge support of the Democratic base in the district.  While Mollohan shouldn't have much trouble gaining the nomination, any tacking to the left to shore up his base will likely prove detrimental to his appeal in the general election.  Pundits appear to just be waking up to Mollohan's serious degree of vulnerability this cycle.  Charlie Cook reacted first, moving this race to toss-up back in February.  Stuart Rothenberg followed, changing the rating to "Tilt Dem" last month.  Larry Sabato and CQ Politics, however, still rate Mollohan the likely winner.  As a result, Election Projection pegs this race as a Weak DEM Hold, but this is clearly a race moving in the direction of the Republicans.

West Virginia's state page has more details on this race and other facets of the Mountain State's political make-up.

Next stop:  Wisconsin



Filed under:  West Virginia  WV House