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  Politics and Elections
   2010 Elections - West Virginia Senate Race
Sunday, October 17, 2010
Rating change: Another Senate seat moves back to DEMs
Last Wednesday, Democratic nominee Alexi Giannoulias clawed his way back into the lead in his razor-close Senate race against Republican Congressman Mark Steven Kirk in Illinois.  That switch brought the projected number of Senate Democrats (and Democratic-leaning independents) back up to 51.  Then on Friday, a weird poll put out on behalf of Marshall University proclaimed a 10-point lead for Governor Joe Manchin in West Virginia.  Most other polls have this race within the MOE or Republican John Raese with a small lead.  Nevertheless, this outlier poll moved EP's projection of the race from Weak GOP Gain to Weak DEM Hold.  I'm confident future polls will show a much closer race, probably one Raese will win, but for now, Democratic Senate projections benefit.  The new count is 50 Democrats, 48 Republicans and 2 Independents.



Filed under:  Ratings changes  Senate  West Virginia  WV Senate 



posted by Scott Elliott at 10:32pm 10/17/10::


Tuesday, September 28, 2010
Rating change: West Virginia Senate, a surprise takeover?
When this election cycle began, no one anywhere had West Virginia on their list of possible GOP pick-ups this year.  That was, of course, because neither Democratic senator was up for re-election.  Then, long-time Senator Robert Byrd passed away, setting up what looked to be an easy jump for popular Governor Joe Manchin from the Governor's Mansion to Capitol Hill.  He may still get there, but it appears now his path will be much more difficult than originally thought.  Two recent polls have given GOP nominee John Raese a surprising lead.  And with those results, Raese has gained a small advantage in this race here at EP.  The race projection has moved from Weak DEM Hold to Weak GOP Gain, giving the GOP another option in its quest for a Senate majority.  The projected balance of power now stands at 49 Democrats, 49 Republicans and 2 Independents.



Filed under:  Ratings changes  West Virginia  WV Senate 



posted by Scott Elliott at 1:01pm 09/28/10::
Saturday, July 17, 2010
West Virginia Senate election starts as Strong DEM Hold
The stage is set for a special election to be held for the late Democratic Senator Robert Byrd's Senate seat.  Governor Joe Manchin, a Democrat himself, appointed Carte Goodwin to serve as interim senator until January, 2011.  At that time, the winner of the special election on Election Day, November 2, 2010 will serve out the remaining 2 years of Byrd's term.  Governor Manchin also announced, as expected, his candidacy.  His approval ratings as governor are stellar which puts him in a strong position heading into the race, despite West Virginia's recent trend toward the GOP.  The initial preliminary rating here at Election Projection reflects his advantage.  We'll start it off as a Strong DEM Hold.



Filed under:  Ratings changes  Senate  West Virginia  WV Senate 



posted by Scott Elliott at 12:54pm 07/17/10::
Friday, July 16, 2010
"On the ground" in West Virginia - Senate election will be held
Here's the latest correspondence from our "On the ground" political reporter.  He confirms that an election will be held in November for the West Virginia seat vacated by Robert Bryd's passing.
It's official, WV seat up this year! WV Legislature scheduled an Aug 28th special primary and Nov 2 Special Election for Byrd's Senate Seat.

Gov. Manchin has scheduled a press conference for 2pm today to name replacement and to announce his intention to run for the seat.

The WV Legislature has not completed the official legislation yet, and they already took out Manchin's "fiscal sense primary" provision that said that if no candidates chose to challenge the "clear party favorite," then there would be no primary to waste the state's funds.  However, the legislature seen this as Manchin's attempt to keep primary challengers away or else claim they're "wasting taxpayer money."

Supposedly the White House has called Manchin to suggest that he name former liberal WV Governor & Harvard professor Gaston Caperton as replacement for Byrd for rest of 2010, knowing that the pro-choice, pro-entitlement programs, pro-financial regulation Caperton will likely be a vote for Kagen and the White House agenda.  However, folks in Charleston are saying that Manchin's going to disregard this request and name good friend & Conservative Democrat Lawyer Carte Goodwin instead.  Supposedly, Manchin wants someone who will allow him to privately choose how they vote because he feels he'll be held responsible for any vote the person casts and WV Voters will be more supportive of a temporary senator who votes against the Obama admininstration instead of a liberal "Yes Man."

Some say Byrd protege & former Democratic Chairman Nick Casey is still in the running, too.

The information in this post courtesy of
Karl Raszewski, Political Media Strategist
R.P.C.Strategies@aol.com




Filed under:  On the ground  West Virginia  WV Senate 



posted by Scott Elliott at 12:19pm 07/16/10::
Monday, June 28, 2010
Senator Robert Byrd passed away at 92 - updated2
West Virginia Senator Robert Byrd, the longest serving senator in history, died quietly early this morning.  My condolences go out to his family and loved ones.  His death sets up an intriguing political situation which will test West Virginia vacancy laws.  State law provides for the governor to appoint a successor to serve out the present term if the time remaning in the term is 2 1/2 years or less.  If the remainder of the term is more than 2 1/2 years, the law dictates that an interim be named and that a special election be held on the next election day.  That cutoff date in Byrd's case is July 3rd, five days from now.  Technically, that means a special election should be held in November.  But, Democratic Governor Joe Manchin may be able to delay "declaring" the office vacant until after July 3rd, thus avoiding another prime GOP takeover opportunity this year in this ever-reddening state.

Update:  Some more info on the West Virginia vacancy law.  From Karl...

Just got clarification from WV GOP.  An election doesn't have to be held if the deadline to get the candidates on that year's midterm ballot has past.  It would be moved to next mid-term year, which is actually the scheduled date for that seat, 2012.

However, the WVGOP says there's actually still 1 week remaining to get the election on the 2010 ballot.  But Manchin is saying if he waits until next week to name the successor, then it'll be to serve out the term because the deadline will be past.  He says it would be disrespectful to name a successor this week & therefore must wait until after deadline.

It should get interesting!

2012 should be interesting, too.

Update2:  Politico.com has published an article about the WV succession law.



Filed under:  Senate  West Virginia  WV Senate 



posted by Scott Elliott at 11:43am 06/28/10::

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