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Bush

Carson
Christie Cruz Fiorina Gilmore Graham Huckabee Jindal Kasich Pataki Paul Perry Rubio Santorum Trump Walker
Democratic
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Candidates
Chafee Clinton O'Malley Sanders Webb
Election Day
November 8, 2016
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About Election Projection

My Story

Hello, my name is Scott Elliott.  I'm a 49-year-old husband of 29 years to the world's most incredible woman and father to three wonderful sons, one amazing daughter and one awesome daughter-in-law.  My wife and I are also blessed to have a precious little granddaughter and grandson.  I am a Christian.  Jesus is my life and my purpose.  I look forward to meeting Him in heaven face to face someday.
Until then, I'm also a political aficionado who loves numbers.  What do you get when you mix a keen interest in politics and a lifelong passion for numbers?  This website!

Past Performance
So far, Election Projection's track record has been pretty good, I think.  In 2004, EP's formula projected Bush would win 289 electoral votes.  He won 286.  Formulas for the 2006 mid-term Senate and House elections picked the GOP to lose the House and the Senate.  In fact, my formula's projection for the Senate picked every seat correctly and missed only Minnesota among the gubernatorial races that year.  In 2008, the formula projected a solid victory for Barack Obama - though he did even better than my numbers suggested by taking North Carolina (my projected margin was less than 0.5% off - grrr) and Indiana.  Still, 48 out of 50 ain't too shabby.

In 2010, Election Projection's House projections were closer than any other major prognosticating website.  EP predicted Republicans would bag a net of 64 new seats, a monumental shift in the balance of power.  When all the votes were counted, they had gained 63.

In 2012, Election Projection foretold Obama's re-election, missing only Florida in the process - again the projection was just fractionally off.  At 49/50 correct, 2012 was EP's best presidential prognostication so far.  EP's Senate projections ended up at 31 out of 33 correct.  And I missed just one governor's race (Montana), though there were a limited number of gubernatorial contests that year (11).  Finally, the House projections here gave Democrats 195 seats (a gain of 2), underestimating them a bit.  They ended up with 201 seats, an 8-seat net gain.

Last cycle, President Obama's tough sixth-year midterm election, EP's projections once again proved keenly accurate. Out of 506 Senate, House and gubernatorial elections on tap in 2014, EP missed just 16. That's a 96.8% accuracy rate. With 10+ years of experience projecting elections to draw on, I'm hoping 2016 will be another successful election prognosticating season.


"Nom de Blog"
Some people know me as The Blogging Caesar.  You may be wondering - what does that mean?  Well, I'm glad you asked!

If you've been online more than once this millenium, you're probably familiar with blogs.  So, the term "blogger" should be well known to you.  But adding "Caesar" to the end may seem strange.  Let me explain what it means.

Almost everybody has some knowledge of this name.  We commonly associate it with Julius, Ancient Rome, and Empires, as well as some other, unseemly things that are patently not a part of its meaning here!  In the Bible, Jesus was once tested by some of His detractors who quizzed Him on whether people should pay taxes to the Roman Emperor.  He requested a Roman coin and asked them, "Whose likeness is on the coin?"  It was Caesar's.  "So then," He answered, "render unto Caesar what is Caesar's and unto God what is God's."  I believe this was a command from Jesus to obey God's laws and to obey the laws of civil authorities and uphold the responsibilities of loyal subjects - where they did not run contrary to God's laws.

Those of us who are Christians are under the same mandate today.  In the United States, we live in a country whose government is "of the people, by the people, for the people."  In other words, each citizen has a part in determining how we will be governed.  We are each, in effect, a small part of the 'American Caesar' that is our republic.

So, that makes me..."The Blogging Caesar!"

Contact me:
electionprojection   -at-   gmail.com

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Special Thanks To:
Charlie Cook, Cook Political
Dave Leip, U.S. Election Atlas
David Wissing, The Hedgehog Report
Larry Sabato, Crystal Ball
Richard & Tony, The Green Papers
The folks at RealClearPolitics
The Rothenberg Political Report
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