Who is winning the California 21st District election?
Posted Jan. 11, 2016 - This Central Valley district is among the most Hispanic you'll find anywhere. Seven out of ten residents here are Latinos. However, despite Hispanic tendency to vote Democrat, Republican David Valadao won this seat in 2012 by a whopping 58-42 margin. He followed that up in a less competitive election two years ago by the same margin against a strong Democratic candidate.
So why has Valadao cruised to multiple blowout victories here? Low turnout among the majority population. Hispanic turnout is so low here that Republicans like Valadao can perform well even with the lopsided Democratic demographic.
But low turnout is only part of the issue for Democrats in recent elections. Valadao's first election during Obama's re-election year featured a weak Democratic opponent. His second election victory came despite a strong opponent in Amanda Renteria, who now works for the Hillary Clinton campaign. He was able to keep his overwhelming margin in that election because the absence of a presidential ticket suppressed Latino vote even more.
Without a strong candidate on the 2016 horizon for the Democrats, this race is barely on the competitive radar right now and could side off the list altogether. For now, the preliminary Election Projection for this race is Mod GOP Hold.
- David Valadao - Incumbent
- Emilio Huerta
- Daniel Parra - Fowler City Councilman
|No polls available for this race.|
|Date||Projection||Old Rating||New Rating|
|Preliminary||--||--||Mod GOP Hold|
|GOP Presidential Primary||June 7, 2016|
|DEM Presidential Primary||June 7, 2016|
|Primary Election||June 7, 2016|
|Election Day||November 8, 2016|
|California Polling Hours|
|Time Zone||Polls Open||Polls Close|
|Pacific||7:00am Local||8:00pm Local|