The projections for today reflect several important shifts. All favor the Republicans.
Donald Trump continues to eat away at Hillary Clinton’s lead in the Electoral College. In Florida, the aggregate average of five polls released in September give him an extremely narrow 0.2-point lead.The Sunshine State switch brings 29 new electoral votes to Trump’s column, reducing the projected Clinton victory to 294-244. It must be said, however, that even though this is the best position Trump has been in this year, Hillary still maintains a solid lead. In order to overtake her, he’ll need to flip at least two more states. North Carolina is the most likely candidate. Wisconsin, Nevada and Pennsylvania remain potential pickups, with Virginia and New Hampshire hanging around as well. Of course, if Hillary were to reclaim any of the states she has recently fallen behind in, Trump path to victory would become much more challenging. Moreover, she remains a threat to pickup red 2012 electoral votes in states like Georgia and Arizona.
The Senate battle has seen a couple important developments lately as well. Republican Kelly Ayotte leads the latest two polls in the New Hampshire Senate race. As a result, she is now projected to hold onto her seat. Republicans hold a 51-47 projected advantage in the Senate. If that projected holds true, they won’t need a Trump victory to keep control of the chamber. In other Senate polling news, Ann Kirkpatrick’s attempt to unseat veteran Republican Senator John McCain seems to be coming up short. And if the latest polling data are to be believed, way short. McCain holds leads of 13 and 19 points in a pair of recent Arizona Senate polls.
Finally, more GOP-favorable generic preference data has moved another House seat from the DEM gain category back to GOP hold. New York CD-22 is no longer projected to go to the Democrats. Overall, this party switcher reduces the projected Democratic gain in the House to 16 net seats.