One year out, I take a look at all 50 states and the District of Columbia.  I'm sure there will be updates to these predictions, but here's how I currently see it (you'll have to go to the bottom to see the final tallies):

Well, I'll give you one prediction right off the bat - Dean wins the Democratic nomination. - I'm no longer standing by this prediction. After Iowa, I think the nomination is clearly up in the air.  I've changed "Dean" to "the Dem" in this analysis to reflect my current unwillingness to predict a democratic nominee.  TBC - 01/21/04.

Since John Kerry is now my pick to win the nomination, I've inserted his name into this analysis.  Once again, however, I'm leaving the predicted state-by-state outcomes alone for now.  TBC - 01/30/04.

Alabama - 9 electoral votes
Solidly Bush in 2000, solidly Bush in 2004
Alaska - 3
Solidly Bush in 2000, solidly Bush in 2004
Arkansas - 6
There are several states, Arkansas being the first, which were moderately close in 2000 that won't be a problem for Bush in 2004.  The reasons are several.  Here are 4:
1. Bush beat the incumbent party in a time of peace and prosperity - difficult to overstate.
2. No more drunk driving lightning bolts - cost Bush 2-3% nationwide.
3. Much better Republican GOTV mechanism in place now - 72 hours of unbridled Republican passion.
4. After 9/11 national security will be, consciously or subconsciously, a deciding factor behind the voting booth curtain - 2-1 advantage for Republicans.
Arizona - 10
Even though there has been a constant influx of Latinos in this southwestern state, I still see Arizona falling into the same category as Arkansas.
California - 55
THE BIG ONE. I'm of the mind that Arnold's victory in California has the potential to bring 55 electoral votes into Bush's basket.  Since the national economy is already starting to boom, California's financial problems should be much easier to deal with.  This would be true no matter who lives in, or commutes to Sacramento.  It is Arnold who fills that role, and he will get the lion's share of the credit.  The Republican party in general and Bush specifically will benefit enormously as the party and president who make things better.  Add that to the fund raising benefits of having the governorship and increased Republican affiliation, and you may just have a barn burner in 2004.  I'm predicting just that!  Bush will win California by 1%!
Colorado - 9
See Arkansas
Connecticut - 7
Solidly Gore in 2000, solidly Kerry in 2004
District of Columbia - 3
Yawn.
Delaware - 3
This state actually voted for Gore/Nader by the same margin as California.  Much different stakes, though.  There have been some remarkable changes in party affiliation since 2000.  From a Pew Research Center poll published last month, Delaware recorded the largest switch in party affiliation from the Dems to the GOP from 1997-2000 to post 9/11 of any safe blue state.  Another upset special - Bush wins here, too.
Georgia - 15
Solidly Bush in 2000, solidly Bush in 2004
Florida - 27
This is the controversial one.  I should say this was the controversial one.  Jeb Bush's 13-point victory in 2002 showed that Floridians are becoming more Republican, in spite of 2000.  The only reason this state was in play that year was the enormous amount of effort and money expended by Gore that was met with a less than urgent response from Bush. 2004 will be different.  Bush will win going away, 55-45%.
Hawaii - 4
There have been some GOP noises in paradise, but nothing that comes close to challenging for this Democratic stronghold.
Idaho - 4
Solidly Bush in 2000, solidly Bush in 2004
Illinois - 21
The land of Lincoln will be swept away in a Bush landslide - I know, I know, I'm a hopeless optimist! (And the GOP will keep the Senate seat, too.)
Indiana - 11
Solidly Bush in 2000, solidly Bush in 2004
Iowa - 7
Gore won this state by only a hair in 2000.  The GOP has gained strength ever since and now hold a 7% advantage in party affiliation, according to Pew.  Bush will win comfortably.
Kansas - 6
Solidly Bush in 2000, solidly Bush in 2004
Kentucky - 8
Solidly Bush in 2000, solidly Bush in 2004
Louisiana - 9
See Arkansas
Maine - 4
Nader's presence in 2000 provided a slim 5.1-point victory for Gore.  Counting the Nader vote, the Dems actually had a 10+% advantage here.  No matter, the North Atlantic coast will see the effects of a Bush tidal wave.  Update:  This prediction includes both districts for Bush. - TBC 01/31/04
Maryland - 10
I'd like to predict an upset here, but I just can't bring myself to do it.  Kerry wins, but not by a whole lot.
Massachusetts - 12
Solidly Gore in 2000, solidly Kerry in 2004 - the worst state in the nation, politically speaking.
Michigan - 17
Strong GOP-ward shift in party affiliation and Bush's lifting of the steel tariffs bode well for him in 2004.  The unions won't be strong enough to deny him this battleground state (the oft-noted Arab population will be a wash).
Minnesota - 10
Wow, has this state changed in recent years.  In the late 1990's, it was as progressive as any state in the country, electing such liberal stalwarts as the late Paul Wellstone.  However, those days are gone.  The GOP now holds the Governorship and a Senate seat, as well as a 3-point lead in party affiliation.  Kerry won't see north of 47% next year.
Mississippi - 6
Solidly Bush in 2000, solidly Bush in 2004
Missouri - 11
Always the bellweather, Mo was no different in 2000.  Check Arkansas to see why this prescient state will be right again.
Montana - 3
Solidly Bush in 2000, solidly Bush in 2004
Nebraska - 5
Solidly Bush in 2000, solidly Bush in 2004
Nevada - 5
See Arkansas
New Hampshire - 4
See Arkansas
New Jersey - 15
See Maryland and count it for Kerry.
New Mexico - 5
The Bush surge claims another Gore prize.
New York - 31
I know some GOPers want to think this state could be in play.  Even if Guiliani were to challenge Schumer, Bush wouldn't get close to Kerry here.  A 45% slice of the vote would be an upset.
North Carolina - 15
Solidly Bush in 2000, solidly Bush in 2004
North Dakota - 3
Solidly Bush in 2000, solidly Bush in 2004
Ohio - 20
See Arkansas, even with the steel tariffs, or lack thereof.
Oklahoma - 7
Solidly Bush in 2000, solidly Bush in 2004
Oregon - 7
See New Mexico.
Pennsylvania - 21
Bush is going to run very strong here - I know, I know, steel tariffs.  The Dems won here in 2000 strictly on the strength of GOTV operations. Next year, the GOP will match them and deliver PA to Bush by 6-8%.
Rhode Island - 4
Solidly Gore in 2000, solidly Kerry in 2004 - the second worst state in the nation, politically speaking.
South Carolina - 8
Solidly Bush in 2000, solidly Bush in 2004
South Dakota - 3
Solidly Bush in 2000, solidly Bush in 2004
Tennessee - 11
The absence of the hometown boy will result in a normal 15-point southern victory for Bush.
Texas - 34
Solidly Bush in 2000, solidly Bush in 2004
Utah - 5
Solidly Bush in 2000, solidly Bush in 2004
Vermont - 3
Bernie Sanders holds a statewide elected office.  'Nuf said.  Vermont says, "Color me blue."
Virginia - 13
Solidly Bush in 2000, solidly Bush in 2004
Washington - 11
In this traditionally Democratic-leaning state the GOP surprisingly holds a 1-point advantage in party affiliation.  Bush wins close.
West Virginia - 5
The Bush surge will be too great for Kerry to overcome even in this Democratic, steel-producing state.  The margin will be tight, though.
Wisconsin - 10
Bush wins by 6-8% to take another blue state from 2000.
Wyoming - 3
Solidly Bush in 2000, solidly Bush in 2004

Bush 449 Electoral Votes, Kerry 89

Bush 56.13% Popular Vote, Kerry 42.87%

Bush 42 States, Kerry 9

Well, there you have it!  Send your comments to thebloggingcaesar@electionprojection.com

posted at 11:50pm 12/10/03