Here we are enduring the ongoing saga of Foleygate, immersed in a steady stream of scandalous revelations about who and when, what and where.  After news broke of former GOP Rep. Mark Foley's disgraceful acts, it was only a matter of time before the headlines would begin tolling the death knell for the GOP’s chances in November.  "GOP in meltdown" was the headline recently at MSN online.  "Bush approval sinks to new low" was another.  Phrases like "tipping point" and "nail in the coffin" are being banged out of keyboard after keyboard across the country faster than my 8-year-old can tell you his life story.

And why shouldn't they be?  After suffering through a withering summer in which their fortunes seemed to steadily decline into resignation, many Republicans feel the Foley scandal is indeed the piez de resistance for Democrats ravenous to regain the gavel of power on Capitol Hill.  The undersea earth has shifted; the tsunami is on its way.  And there's nothing we can do to stop the coming tidal wave from crashing down on November 7.  There is no force to stand against the swelling political seas.  Hey, we had a nice run; it's time to close up shop and accept the inevitable, right?

I can hear Jimmy V. turning in his grave and the editorial board at The New York Times shrieking with delight.  Are we really giving up?  With so much to lose, so much on the table, with America's very future hanging in the balance, surely we can't be calling it quits.  If we learned anything from the last three elections, it is that participation, not polls, pundits or pooh-poohing, makes or breaks an election.

In 2000, ineffective GOP mobilization efforts and disaffected GOP voters afforded Al Gore 500,000 more votes than George W. Bush.  In 2002 and 2004, a transformation of miraculous proportions took place in the Republican get-out-the-vote machine.  It culminated in the GOP control of both congressional chambers and the re-election of a Republican president who received over 3 million more votes than his opponent and nearly 8 million more than any previous presidential candidate in history.

P-a-r-t-i-c-i-p-a-t-i-o-n.  Without even the pretense of a real plan for our future, the Democrats have hung their hopes on a depressed conservative base.  It is the only way they can win.  Swing voters mean little in the polarized political world in which we find ourselves.  And the effects of that polarization are magnified in traditionally low-turnout mid-term elections where only the active and energized take part.

The task for our opponents, then, is to win the war of emotional energy.  So much of what we are seeing and hearing now from the talking heads in the media and the Democratic party is designed to accomplish two things.  First, they hope the never-ending dirge of bad news and scandal will squeeze whatever small number of votes it can from a diminishing pool of fence-sitters.  Second, and many times more importantly, they seek to demoralize and deflate the conservative faithful.  For they know that every vote not cast by a disgruntled and despairing Republican Eeyore is one less vote they have to overcome in their quest for control.

Are you worried about November?  Do you feel a growing sense of defeat within you every time another segment is aired on the network news about the escalating violence in Iraq?  Perhaps your energy and excitement level take yet another hit every time your newspaper publishes an article exposing more bad news in the Foley scandal.  Make no mistake; that is exactly what those stories are designed to do.

Don't let it happen.  I implore us all to resist that temptation to be driven into mopey political reclusion.  Fend off the Eeyore inside that wants to sap your drive to win.  For sure our leadership is far from ideal, but think about the alternative.  If we lose the House, George W. Bush will be impeached.  If we lose this Senate, only David Souter clones will have a prayer of filling any vacancies in the Supreme Court during Bush's final two years and we'll lose by default the critical battle we are now winning in the judiciary.  The implications of this election when viewed through the lens of our country’s future history are enormous.  We cannot afford to lose.

The good news is we don’t have to lose.  This is a tough political climate for success, but we are well-prepared.  That infrastructure which grew from the minds of Karl Rove and Ken Mehlman into a vote-generating behemoth is not dead.  It is still here, still alive.  This election – like the one in 2004 – will be about nothing more than getting out the vote.  Rhetoric and news cycles play their part, but all the best political sound bites and all the worst news clips will only impact the outcome of this election as much as we allow it to.

That outcome is squarely in our hands.  If we are active, if we are mobilized, even a fraction as much as two years ago, we will not lose.  When I issued my edicts in April of this year that the GOP would keep both the House and the Senate, I was looking past the war in Iraq, past the inevitable October surprises.  I was looking at the conservative faithful and the track record of systematic action that has led to victory after victory in recent years.

John Hood just published a post on National Review Online’s Sixers blog.  In it, he bemoaned the overconfidence he has sensed among a certain contingent of GOP-leaning pundits.  Since I recently had a discussion with him myself in which I shared an optimistic outlook on November's elections, I have to wonder if I weren't included in that number.  His less-than-rosy perception of things can be a positive force for us this year, but only if it moves us to ACT.