Election Projection - 2006 Edition

Election 2006 Projections

This is a sample of the Pennsylvania state page. It was
published in late September, 2006. For current information,
visit Election Projection's main page

Pennsylvania

Latest News and Updates

CD-7: RATING CHANGE: Mod GOP Hold to Weak GOP Hold - 09/29/06

CD-7: Keystone Poll: Sestak 44%, Weldon 43% - 09/29/06

Sen: Strategic Vision: Casey 50%, Santorum 40% - 09/28/06

Gov: Strategic Vision: Rendell 55%, Swann 37% - 09/28/06

CD-6: Keystone Poll: Gerlach 45%, Murphy 38% - 09/28/06

Sen: Quinnipiac: Casey 51%, Santorum 39% - 09/26/06

Gov: Quinnipiac: Rendell 55%, Swann 39% - 09/27/06

Sen: Philadelphia Inquirer: Casey 49%, Santorum 39% - 09/25/06

Gov: Philadelphia Inquirer: Rendell 60%, Swann 33% - 09/25/06

Gov: SurveyUSA approval: Rendell +23 (up 3) - 09/25/06

Sen: Rasmussen: Casey 49%, Santorum 39% - 09/22/06

Gov: Rasmussen: Rendell 56%, Swann 36% - 09/22/06

Sen: Keystone Poll: Casey 45%, Santorum 38% - 09/21/06

Gov: RATING CHANGE: Mod DEM Hold to Strong DEM Hold - 09/21/06

Gov: Keystone Poll: Rendell 52%, Swann 34% - 09/21/06

CD-6: Public Opinion Strategies(R): Gerlach 47%, Murphy 39% - 09/19/06

CD-6: Murphy Campaign: Murphy 42%, Gerlach 41% - 09/19/06

CD-7: RATING CHANGE: Weak GOP Hold to Mod GOP Hold - 09/18/06

CD-7: Public Opinion Strategies(R): Weldon 52%, Sestak 36% - 09/18/06

CD-6: Constituent Dynamics: Murphy 50%, Gerlach 45% - 09/07/06

CD-8: RATING CHANGE: Weak GOP Hold to Mod GOP Hold - 09/07/06

CD-8: Constituent Dynamics: Fitzpatrick 53%, Murphy 45% - 09/07/06

CD-10: RATING CHANGE: possibly competitive to Weak GOP Hold - 09/07/06

CD-10: Constituent Dynamics: Carney 50%, Sherwood 43% - 09/07/06

Sen: USA Today/Gallup: Casey 56%, Santorum 38% - 09/04/06

Sen: Rasmussen: Casey 48%, Santorum 40% - 08/28/06

Gov: Rasmussen: Rendell 50%, Swann 38% - 08/28/06

Gov: SurveyUSA approval: Rendell +20 (down 5) - 08/27/06

Sen: Keystone Poll: Casey 44%, Santorum 39% - 08/24/06

Sen: SurveyUSA approval: Santorum +3 (up 10) - 08/18/06

Sen: Strategic Vision: Casey 47%, Santorum 41% - 08/17/06

Gov: Strategic Vision: Rendell 51%, Swann 41% - 08/17/06

Gov: Quinnipiac: Rendell 57%, Swann 38% - 08/16/06

Sen: Quinnipiac approval: Santorum -2 - 08/15/06

Sen: Quinnipiac: Casey 48%, Santorum 42%, Romanelli 5% - 08/15/06

CD-6: Larry Sabato: Toss-up to Leans DEM - 08/14/06

CD-7: RATING CHANGE: possibly competitive to Weak GOP Hold - 08/09/06

CD-8: RATING CHANGE: possibly competitive to Weak GOP Hold - 08/09/06

Sen: Muhlenberg College: Casey 45%, Santorum 39% - 08/07/06

Gov: Muhlenberg College: Rendell 51%, Swann 35% - 08/07/06

Sen: Rasmussen: Casey 50%, Santorum 39% - 08/03/06

Gov: Rasmussen: Rendell 50%, Swann 40% - 08/03/06

Sen: SurveyUSA approval: Santorum -7 (up 12) - 07/26/06

Gov: SurveyUSA approval: Rendell +25 (up 3) - 07/23/06

Sen: Rasmussen: Casey 50%, Santorum 40% - 07/20/06

Gov: Rasmussen: Rendell 49%, Swann 36% - 07/20/06

Tracking initiated - 07/14/06

Conservative Ranking

Pennsylvania is the 17th least conservative state, voting 5.0% less Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.

Partisan Trend

Based on voting patterns since 1992, Pennsylvania is trending DEMOCRAT.

GOP Trend Ranking

Pennsylvania ranks 34th among the 50 states.

Senate Race

Incumbent: GOP incumbent Rick Santorum is up for a 3rd term in 2006. He faced only token primary opposition.

GOP Candidates

Rick Santorum - Incumbent

Democrat Candidates

Bob Casey, Jr. - Pennsylvania State Treasurer

Chuck Pennacchio - Professor

Alan Sandals - Attorney

Edward Cook

Party nominee -

Election Projection: Bob Casey, Jr. +7.9 - DEM pick-up

Polling Data

Polling Firm	Date	Santorum	Casey
Strategic Vision	09/28	40%	50%
Quinnipiac	09/26	39%	51%
Philly Inquirer	09/25	39%	49%
Rasmussen	09/22	39%	49%
Keystone Poll	09/21	38%	45%

Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

Index	Raw value	Weight	Factor
Head-to head polls	-9.8	80%	-7.8
Incumbent approval	1	15%	0.1
State partisanship	-2.5	5%	-0.1

Projection History

Date	Projection	Rating
September 28, 2006	Casey +7.9	Mod DEM Gain
September 26, 2006	Casey +9.2	Mod DEM Gain
September 25, 2006	Casey +9.0	Mod DEM Gain
September 22, 2006	Casey +9.3	Mod DEM Gain
September 21, 2006	Casey +8.9	Mod DEM Gain
September 4, 2006	Casey +6.9	Mod DEM Gain
August 28, 2006	Casey +5.1	Mod DEM Gain
August 24, 2006	Casey +5.6	Mod DEM Gain
August 18, 2006	Casey +5.8	Mod DEM Gain
August 17, 2006	Casey +6.6	Mod DEM Gain
August 14, 2006	Casey +6.9	Mod DEM Gain
August 7, 2006	Casey +10.0	Mod DEM Gain
August 3, 2006	Casey +11.2	Mod DEM Gain
July 31, 2006	Casey +11.0	Mod DEM Gain
July 20, 2006	Casey +13.0	Mod DEM Gain
Preliminary	-----	Weak DEM Gain

Governor's Race

Incumbent: DEM incumbent Ed Rendell is seeking a second term in 2006. He faced no primary opposition.

GOP Candidates

Lynn Swann - Former NFL Player

Democrat Candidates

Ed Rendell - Incumbent

Party nominee -

Election Projection: Ed Rendell +19.4

Polling Data

Polling Firm	Date	Swann	Rendell
Strategic Vision	09/28	37%	55%
Quinnipiac	09/27	39%	55%
Philly Inquirer	09/25	33%	60%
Rasmussen	09/22	36%	56%
Keystone Poll	09/21	34%	52%

Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

Index	Raw value	Weight	Factor
Head-to head polls	19.8	80%	15.8
Incumbent approval	23	15%	3.5
State partisanship	2.5	5%	0.1

Projection History

Date	Projection	Rating
September 28, 2006	Rendell +19.4	Strong DEM Hold
September 27, 2006	Rendell +19.8	Strong DEM Hold
September 25, 2006	Rendell +20.9	Strong DEM Hold
September 22, 2006	Rendell +18.3	Strong DEM Hold
September 21, 2006	Rendell +15.1	Strong DEM Hold
August 28, 2006	Rendell +14.4	Mod DEM Hold
August 27, 2006	Rendell +14.1	Mod DEM Hold
August 17, 2006	Rendell +15.0	Strong DEM Hold
August 16, 2006	Rendell +15.9	Strong DEM Hold
August 7, 2006	Rendell +16.1	Strong DEM Hold
August 3, 2006	Rendell +15.7	Strong DEM Hold
July 23, 2006	Rendell +16.3	Strong DEM Hold
July 20, 2006	Rendell +15.8	Strong DEM Hold
Preliminary	-----	Weak DEM Hold

Competitive House Races

District 6

Incumbent: GOP incumbent Jim Gerlach is running for a 3rd term in 2006. He faced no primary opposition.

GOP Candidates

Jim Gerlach - Incumbent

Democrat Candidates

Lois Murphy - Attorney

Mike Leibowitz - Attorney

Party nominee -

Election Projection: Lois Murphy +0.4 - DEM pick-up

Pundit Predictions

Pundit	Date	Prediction
The Blogging Caesar	07/14	Murphy by 4
Charlie Cook	06/29	Toss-up
Larry Sabato	08/14	Murphy by 4 (Lean DEM)
Congressional Quarterly	07/14	Toss-up

Polling Data

Polling Firm	Date	Gerlach	Murphy
Keystone Poll	09/28	45%	38%
Constituent Dynamics	09/07	45%	50%

Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

Index	Raw value	Weight	Factor
Pundit predictions	-2.0	45%	-0.9
Head-to-head polls	1.0	50%	0.5
District partisanship	-0.5	5%	-0.03

Projection History

Date	Projection	Rating
September 28, 2006	Murphy +0.4	Weak DEM Gain
September 19, 2006	Murphy +0.1	Weak DEM Gain
September 7, 2006	Murphy +2.3	Weak DEM Gain
August 14, 2006	Murphy +1.5	Weak DEM Gain
August 9, 2006	Murphy +0.8	Weak DEM Gain
July 20, 2006	Murphy +0.7	Weak DEM Gain
Preliminary	-----	Weak GOP Hold

District 7

Incumbent: GOP incumbent Curt Weldon is up for a 10th term 2006. He faced no primary opposition.

GOP Candidates

Curt Weldon - Incumbent

Democrat Candidates

Joseph Sestak - Navy Admiral

Party nominee -

Election Projection: Curt Weldon +3.1

Pundit Predictions

Pundit	Date	Prediction
The Blogging Caesar	08/09	Weldon by 5
Charlie Cook	09/07	Weldon by 4 (Lean GOP)
Larry Sabato	06/29	Weldon by 4 (Lean GOP)
Congressional Quarterly	08/09	Weldon by 4 (Lean GOP)

Polling Data

Polling Firm	Date	Weldon	Sestak
Keystone Poll	09/29	43%	44%

Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

Index	Raw value	Weight	Factor
Pundit predictions	4.3	70%	3.0
Head-to-head polls	-1.0	25%	-0.3
District partisanship	6.5	5%	0.3

Projection History

Date	Projection	Rating
September 29, 2006	Weldon +3.1	Weak GOP Hold
September 18, 2006	Weldon +8.0	Mod GOP Hold
August 9, 2006	Weldon +4.3	Weak GOP Hold
Preliminary	-----	possibly competitive

District 8

Incumbent: GOP incumbent Michael Fitzpatrick seeks a second term 2006. He faced no primary opposition.

GOP Candidates

Michael Fitzpatrick - Incumbent

Democrat Candidates

Patrick Murphy- Iraq War Veteran

Party nominee -

Election Projection: Michael Fitzpatrick +7.1

Pundit Predictions

Pundit	Date	Prediction
The Blogging Caesar	08/9	Fitzpatrick by 7
Charlie Cook	06/29	Fitzpatrick by 4 (Lean GOP)
Larry Sabato	06/29	Fitzpatrick by 4 (Lean GOP)
Congressional Quarterly	08/9	Fitzpatrick by 4 (Lean GOP)

Polling Data

Polling Firm	Date	Fitzpatrick	Murphy
Grove Insights (D)	09/22	43%	38%
Constituent Dynamics	09/07	53%	45%

Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

Index	Raw value	Weight	Factor
Pundit predictions	4.8	45%	2.1
Head-to-head polls**	9.5	50%	4.8
District partisanship	6.5	5%	0.3
** - partisan polls adjusted by 3%

Projection History

Date	Projection	Rating
September 7, 2006	Fitzpatrick +5.6	Mod GOP Hold
August 9, 2006	Fitzpatrick +4.7	Weak GOP Hold
Preliminary	-----	possibly competitive

District 10

Incumbent: GOP incumbent Don Sherwood seeks a fifth term 2006. He faced no primary opposition.

GOP Candidates

Don Sherwood - Incumbent

Democrat Candidates

Chris Carney

Party nominee -

Election Projection: Don Sherwood +1.7

Pundit Predictions

Pundit	Date	Prediction
The Blogging Caesar	09/07	Sherwood by 2
Charlie Cook	06/29	Sherwood by 4 (Lean GOP)
Larry Sabato	06/29	Sherwood by 4 (Lean GOP)
Congressional Quarterly	08/9	Sherwood by 4 (Lean GOP)

Polling Data

Polling Firm	Date	Sherwood	Carney
Constituent Dynamics	09/07	43%	50%

Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

Index	Raw value	Weight	Factor
Pundit predictions	3.5	70%	2.5
Head-to-head polls	-7.0	25%	-1.8
District partisanship	20.0	5%	1.0

Projection History

Date	Projection	Rating
September 7, 2006	Sherwood +1.7	Weak GOP Hold
Preliminary	-----	possibly competitive

Other House Races

Projected winner listed first

District 1: Bob Brady (D)-inc (unopposed)

District 2: Chaka Fattah (D)-inc vs. Michael Gessner (R)

District 3: Phil English (R)-inc vs. Steven Porter (D)

District 4: Melissa Hart(R)-inc vs. Jason Altmire (D)

District 5: John Peterson (R)-inc vs. Donald Hilliard (D)

District 9: Bill Shuster (R)-inc (unopposed)

District 11: Paul Kanjourski (D)-inc vs. Joseph Leonardi (R)

District 12: John Murtha (D)-inc vs. Diana Irey (R)

District 13: Allyson Schwartz (D)-inc vs. Raj Peter Bhakta(R)

District 14: Mike Doyle (D)-inc (unopposed)

District 15: Charlie Dent (R)-inc vs. Charles Dertinger (D)

District 16: Joseph Pitts (R)-inc vs. Lois Kathryn Herr (D)

District 17: Tim Holden (D)-inc vs. Matthew Wertz (R)

District 18: Tim Murphy (R)-inc vs. Chad Kluko (D)

District 19: Todd Platts (R)-inc vs. Phil Avillo, Jr. (D)

Election Timeline

March 7, 2006 - Deadline to file for candidacy

May 16, 2006 - Primary elections

November 7, 2006 - Election day

Current Partisan Breakdown

National Delegation
Senators	2 GOP
Representatives	12 GOP, 7 DEM
State Government
Governor	DEM
Lt. Governor - tied to Governor	DEM
State Senate - GOP control	30 GOP, 20 DEM
State House - GOP control	109 GOP,92 DEM,2 vacant