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 Election 2008 Projections

 


Alaska

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Conservative Ranking


Alaska is the 8th most conservative state, voting 23.1% more Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.

Partisan Trend


Based on voting patterns since 1992, Alaska's partisan trend is STEADY.

GOP Trend Ranking


Alaska ranks 23rd among the 50 states.

Race for the White House


GOP Candidates

  • John McCain - U. S. Senator from Arizona  
  • Mike Huckabee - Former Governor of Arkansas
  • Ron Paul - U. S. Congressman from Texas (CD-14)
  • Mitt Romney - Former Governor of Massachusetts
  • Rudy Giuliani - Former Mayor of New York City
  • Fred Thompson - Former U. S. Senator from Tennessee
  • Duncan Hunter - U. S. Congressman from California (CD-52)

    DEM Candidates

  • Hillary Clinton - U. S. Senator from New York
  • Barack Obama - U. S. Senator from Illinois
  • Mike Gravel - Former U. S. Senator from Alaska
  • John Edwards - Former U. S. Senator from North Carolina (withdrew)
  • Bill Richardson - Governor of New Mexico (withdrew)
  • Dennis Kucinich - U. S. Congressman from Ohio (CD-10) (withdrew)

    Party nominee -

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

      Index Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to-head polls (state) . . .
        Incumbent approval (state) . . .
        State partisanship . . .
        Other issues . . .

    Preliminary projection:  Mod GOP, 3 Electoral Votes

    Senate Race


    Incumbent:  GOP incumbent Ted Stevens is seeking a 5th term in 2008, though he may retire.  He faces primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Ted Stevens - Incumbent
  • Jerry Heikes - Former Alaska Governor Candidate
  • Ben Stevens - Alaska State Senator

    DEM Candidates

  • Nels Anderson, Jr. - Former Alaska State Senator
  • Rocky Caldero - Unalaska, Alaska City Councilor
  • Johnny Ellis - Alaska State Senator
  • Frank Vondersaar

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

      Index Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to head polls . . .
        Incumbent approval . . .
        State partisanship . . .
        Other issues . . .

    Preliminary projection:  Weak GOP Hold

    Governor's Race


    No race in 2008

    Competitive House Races


    District At-Large


    Incumbent:  GOP incumbent Don Young is seeking a 19th term in 2008, though he may retire.  He faces primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Don Young - Incumbent
  • John Harris - Speaker, Alaska State House
  • Mike Miller

    DEM Candidates

  • Diane Benson - 2006 Nominee
  • Ethan Berkowitz - Alaska State Representative
  • Jake Metcalfe - Former Alaska Democratic Party Chairperson
  • Ray Metcalfe - Former Alaska State Representative

    Pundit Predictions - punditry to be tracked after party primaries

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Pundit predictions . . .
        Head-to-head polls . . .
        District partisanship . . .

    Preliminary projection:  Weak GOP Hold

    Other House Races


    No other races

    Election Timeline


  • February 5, 2008 - Presidential Caucuses
  • June 2, 2008 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • August 26, 2008 - Primary elections
  • November 4, 2008 - Election day

    Current Partisan Breakdown


      National Delegation
        Senators 2 GOP
        Representatives 1 GOP
      State Government
        Governor GOP
        Lt. Governor GOP
        State Senate - GOP control 11 GOP, 9 DEM
        State House - GOP control 25 GOP, 15 DEM

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  Sarah Palin (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2010
  • Lt. Governor:  Sean Parnell (R) - 1st term, tied to Governor
  • Senior Senator:  Ted Stevens (R) - 4th term, up for re-election in 2008 (might retire)
  • Junior Senator:  Lisa Murkowski (R) - 2nd term, up for re-election in 2010
  • House District AL:  Don Young (R) - 18th term (might retire)

    Historical Partisan Snapshot


      Race 2000 Result 2002 Result 2004 Result 2006 Result

    President Solid GOP -- Solid GOP --

    Senate
    Class 2 -- Solid GOP -- --
    Class 3 -- -- Weak GOP --

    Governor -- Solid GOP -- Mod GOP

    House 1 GOP 1 GOP 1 GOP 1 GOP
    CD-AL Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP

    BOLD - party turnover
     
    Race ratings:
  • "Weak" - less than 5%
  • "Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
  • "Strong" - 10% to 15%
  • "Solid" - greater than 15%
  • Tour The 50 States


    Next Stop:  Arizona
    Previous Stop:  Alabama

    Special Thanks to...


    Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
    Congressional Quarterly
    The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
    The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
    DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
    RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

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