Election Projection: 2008 Elections - Polls, Projections, Results

Election 2008 Projections

Arkansas

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Conservative Ranking

Arkansas is the 23rd most conservative state, voting 7.3% more Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.

Partisan Trend

Based on voting patterns since 1992, Arkansas is trending REPUBLICAN.
NOTE: Arkansas' GOP trend can be largely attributed to the presence of former Gov. Bill Clinton on the ballot in 1992 and 1996.

GOP Trend Ranking

Arkansas ranks 3rd among the 50 states.

Race for the White House

GOP Candidates

John McCain - U. S. Senator from Arizona

Mike Huckabee - Former Governor of Arkansas

Ron Paul - U. S. Congressman from Texas (CD-14)

Mitt Romney - Former Governor of Massachusetts

Rudy Giuliani - Former Mayor of New York City

Fred Thompson - Former U. S. Senator from Tennessee

Duncan Hunter - U. S. Congressman from California (CD-52)

DEM Candidates

Hillary Clinton - U. S. Senator from New York

Barack Obama - U. S. Senator from Illinois

Mike Gravel - Former U. S. Senator from Alaska

John Edwards - Former U. S. Senator from North Carolina (withdrew)

Bill Richardson - Governor of New Mexico (withdrew)

Dennis Kucinich - U. S. Congressman from Ohio (CD-10) (withdrew)

Party nominee -

Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

Index	Raw value	Weight	Factor
Head-to-head polls (state)	.	.	.
Incumbent approval (state)	.	.	.
State partisanship	.	.	.
Other issues	.	.	.

Preliminary projection: Weak GOP, 6 Electoral Votes

Senate Race

Incumbent: DEM incumbent Mark Pryor is seeking a second term in 2008. He currently faces no primary opposition.

GOP Candidates

Charles Banks - U. S. Attorney

J. French Hill - Executive

DEM Candidates

Mark Pryor - Incumbent

Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

Index	Raw value	Weight	Factor
Head-to head polls	.	.	.
Incumbent approval	.	.	.
State partisanship	.	.	.
Other issues	.	.	.

Preliminary projection: Strong DEM Hold

Governor's Race

No race in 2008

Competitive House Races

No competitive races in 2008

Other House Races

Projected winner listed first

District 1: Marion Berry (D)-inc (currently unopposed)

District 2: Victor Snyder (D)-inc (currently unopposed)

District 3: John Boozman (R) (currently unopposed)

District 4: Mike Ross (D)-inc (currently unopposed)

Election Timeline

February 5, 2008 - Presidential primary

April 1, 2008 - Deadline to file for candidacy

May 20, 2008 - Primary elections

June 10, 2008 - Primary runoff

November 4, 2008 - Election day

Current Partisan Breakdown

National Delegation
Senators	2 DEM
Representatives	1 GOP, 3 DEM
State Government
Governor	DEM
Lt. Governor	DEM
State Senate - DEM control	8 GOP, 27 DEM
State House - DEM control	25 GOP, 75 DEM

Current Office Holders

Governor: Mike Beebe (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2010

Lt. Governor: Bill Halter (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2010

Senior Senator: Blanche Lincoln (D) - 2nd term, up for re-election in 2010

Junior Senator: Mark Pryor (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2008

House District 1: Marion Berry (D) - 6th term

House District 2: Victor Snyder (D) - 6th term

House District 3: John Boozman (R) - 4th term

House District 4: Mike Ross (D) - 4th term

Historical Partisan Snapshot

Race 2000 Result 2002 Result 2004 Result 2006 Result

President Mod GOP -- Mod GOP --

Senate

Class 2 -- Mod DEM -- --

Class 3 -- -- Mod DEM --

Governor -- Mod GOP -- Strong DEM

House 1 GOP - 3 DEM 1 GOP - 3 DEM 1 GOP - 3 DEM 1 GOP - 3 DEM

CD-1 Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM

CD-2 Solid DEM Solid DEM Weak DEM Solid DEM

CD-3 Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP

CD-4 Weak DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM

BOLD - party turnover

Race ratings:

"Weak" - less than 5%
"Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
"Strong" - 10% to 15%
"Solid" - greater than 15%