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Arizona
Latest News and Updates
Coming soon...
Conservative Ranking
Arizona is the 22nd most conservative state, voting
8.0% more Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.
Partisan Trend
Based on voting patterns since 1992, Arizona's partisan trend is STEADY.
GOP Trend Ranking
Arizona ranks 22nd among the 50 states.
Race for the White House
GOP Candidates
John McCain - U. S. Senator from Arizona 
Mike Huckabee - Former Governor of Arkansas
Ron Paul - U. S. Congressman from Texas (CD-14)
Mitt Romney - Former Governor of Massachusetts
Rudy Giuliani - Former Mayor of New York City
Fred Thompson - Former U. S. Senator from Tennessee
Duncan Hunter - U. S. Congressman from California (CD-52)
DEM Candidates
Hillary Clinton - U. S. Senator from New York
Barack Obama - U. S. Senator from Illinois
Mike Gravel - Former U. S. Senator from Alaska
John Edwards - Former U. S. Senator from North Carolina (withdrew)
Bill Richardson - Governor of New Mexico (withdrew)
Dennis Kucinich - U. S. Congressman from Ohio (CD-10) (withdrew)
Party nominee -
Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries
Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries
| Index |
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| Incumbent approval (state) |
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| State partisanship |
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| Other issues |
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Preliminary projection: Weak GOP, 10 Electoral Votes
Senate Race
No race in 2008
Governor's Race
No race in 2008
Competitive House Races
District 1
OPEN SEAT: GOP incumbent Rick Renzi is retiring at the end of his 3rd
term. He is not seeking re-election in 2008.
GOP Candidates
Tom O'Hallaran - Arizona State Senator
Sydney Ann Hay
Lewis Tenney
DEM Candidates
Ann Kirkpatrick - Former Arizona State Representative
Howard Shanker - Attorney
Mary Kim Titla - Former Television Reporter
Jeffrey Brown - Community Activist
Pundit Predictions - punditry to be tracked after party primaries
Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries
Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries
| Index |
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| Head-to-head polls |
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| District partisanship |
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Preliminary projection: Weak DEM Gain
District 5
Incumbent: Democrat Harold Mitchell is running for re-election for the first time in 2008. He
faces no primary opposition.
GOP Candidates
J.D. Hayworth - Former United States Representative from Arizona
Mark Anderson - Arizona State Representative
Laura Knaperek - Former Arizona State Senator
Jeff Hatch-Miller - Former Arizona State Senator
Jim Ogsbury - Lobbyist
DEM Candidates
Harold Mitchell - Incumbent
Pundit Predictions - punditry to be tracked after party primaries
Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries
Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries
| Index |
Raw value |
Weight |
Factor |
| Pundit predictions |
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| Head-to-head polls |
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| District partisanship |
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Preliminary projection: Weak DEM Hold
Other House Races
Projected winner listed first
District 2: Trent Franks (R)-inc (currently unopposed)
District 3: John Shadegg (R)-inc vs. Bob Lord (D)
District 4: Ed Pastor (D)-inc (currently unopposed)
District 6: Jeffrey Flake? (R)-inc vs. Richard Grayson (D)
District 7: Raul Grijalva (D)-inc vs. Gene Chewning (R)
District 8: Gabrielle Giffords (D)-inc vs. Timothy Bee (R) - possibly competitive
Election Timeline
February 5, 2008 - Presidential primary
June 4, 2008 - Deadline to file for candidacy
September 9, 2008 - Primary elections
November 4, 2008 - Election day
Current Partisan Breakdown
| National Delegation |
| Senators |
2 GOP |
| Representatives |
4 GOP, 4 DEM |
| State Government |
| Governor |
DEM |
| Lt. Governor |
GOP |
| State Senate - GOP control |
17 GOP, 13 DEM |
| State House - GOP control |
33 GOP, 27 DEM |
Current Office Holders
Governor: Janet Napolitano (D) - 2nd term, term-limited in 2010
Lt. Governor: Jan Brewer (R) - 2nd term, term-limited in 2010
Senior Senator: John McCain (R) - 4th term, up for re-election in 2010
Junior Senator: Jon Kyl (R) - 3rd term, up for re-election in 2012
House District 1: Rick Renzi (R) - 3rd term, retiring
House District 2: Trent Franks (R) - 3rd term
House District 3: John Shadegg (R) - 7th term
House District 4: Ed Pastor (D) - 9th term
House District 5: Harold Mitchell (D) - 1st term
House District 6: Jeffrey Flake (R) - 4th term
House District 7: Raul Grijalva (D) - 2nd term
House District 8: Gabrielle Giffords (D) - 1st term
Historical Partisan Snapshot
| Race |
2000 Result |
2002 Result |
2004 Result |
2006 Result |
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| President |
Mod GOP |
-- |
Strong GOP |
-- |
Senate |
| Class 1 |
Solid GOP |
-- |
-- |
Mod GOP |
| Class 3 |
-- |
-- |
Solid GOP |
-- |
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| Governor |
-- |
Weak DEM |
-- |
Solid DEM |
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| House |
4 GOP - 2 DEM |
6 GOP - 2 DEM |
6 GOP - 2 DEM |
4 GOP - 4 DEM |
| CD-1 |
Mod GOP |
Weak GOP |
Solid GOP |
Mod GOP |
| CD-2 |
Solid DEM |
Solid GOP |
Solid GOP |
Solid GOP |
| CD-3 |
Solid GOP |
Weak GOP |
Solid GOP |
Solid GOP |
| CD-4 |
Solid GOP |
Solid DEM |
Solid DEM |
Solid DEM |
| CD-5 |
Solid DEM |
Solid GOP |
Solid GOP |
Weak DEM |
| CD-6 |
Solid GOP |
Solid GOP |
Solid GOP |
Solid GOP |
| CD-7 |
NA |
Solid DEM |
Solid DEM |
Solid DEM |
| CD-8 |
NA |
Solid GOP |
Solid GOP |
Mod DEM |
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BOLD - party turnover
Party changes not bolded resulted from redistricting before the 2002 election.
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Race ratings:
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"Weak" - less than 5%
"Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
"Strong" - 10% to 15%
"Solid" - greater than 15%
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Tour The 50 States
Next Stop: Arkansas
Previous Stop: Alaska
Special Thanks to...
Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
Congressional Quarterly
The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre
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