Election Projection: 2008 Elections - Polls, Projections, Results

Election 2008 Projections

California

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Conservative Ranking

California is the 8th least conservative state, voting 12.4% less Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.

Partisan Trend

Based on voting patterns since 1992, California is trending DEMOCRAT.

GOP Trend Ranking

California ranks 42nd among the 50 states.

Race for the White House

GOP Candidates

John McCain - U. S. Senator from Arizona

Mike Huckabee - Former Governor of Arkansas

Ron Paul - U. S. Congressman from Texas (CD-14)

Mitt Romney - Former Governor of Massachusetts

Rudy Giuliani - Former Mayor of New York City

Fred Thompson - Former U. S. Senator from Tennessee

Duncan Hunter - U. S. Congressman from California (CD-52)

DEM Candidates

Hillary Clinton - U. S. Senator from New York

Barack Obama - U. S. Senator from Illinois

Mike Gravel - Former U. S. Senator from Alaska

John Edwards - Former U. S. Senator from North Carolina (withdrew)

Bill Richardson - Governor of New Mexico (withdrew)

Dennis Kucinich - U. S. Congressman from Ohio (CD-10) (withdrew)

Party nominee -

Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

Index	Raw value	Weight	Factor
Head-to-head polls (state)	.	.	.
Incumbent approval (state)	.	.	.
State partisanship	.	.	.
Other issues	.	.	.

Preliminary projection: Strong DEM, 55 Electoral Votes

Senate Race

No race in 2008

Governor's Race

No race in 2008

Competitive House Races

District 4

OPEN SEAT: GOP incumbent John Doolittle is retiring at the end of his 9th term. He is not seeking re-election in 2008.

GOP Candidates

Eric Egland - Air Force Reservist

Ted Gaines - California State Assemblyman

Thomas Oller - Former California State Senator

Tom Sullivan - Radio Talk Show Host

Theodore Terbolizard

DEM Candidates

Charles Brown - Former Air Force Officer

Pundit Predictions - punditry to be tracked after party primaries

Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

Index	Raw value	Weight	Factor
Pundit predictions	.	.	.
Head-to-head polls	.	.	.
District partisanship	.	.	.

Preliminary projection: Weak GOP Hold

District 11

Incumbent: Democratic incumbent Jerry McNerney is seeking re-election for the first time in 2008. He faces no primary opposition.

GOP Candidates

Alan Nakanishi - California State Assemblyman

Dean Andal - Former California State Assemblyman

Jill Buck

Brent Jones

DEM Candidates

Jerry McNerney - Incumbent

Pundit Predictions - punditry to be tracked after party primaries

Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

Index	Raw value	Weight	Factor
Pundit predictions	.	.	.
Head-to-head polls	.	.	.
District partisanship	.	.	.

Preliminary projection: Weak DEM Hold

Other House Races

Projected winner listed first

District 1: Michael Thompson (D)-inc (currently unopposed)

District 2: Wally Herger (R)-inc (currently unopposed)

District 3: Daniel Lungren (R)-inc vs. Bill Durston (D)

District 5: Doris Matsui (D)-inc vs. Paul Smith (R)

District 6: Lynn Woolsey (D)-inc (currently unopposed)

District 7: George Miller (D)-inc (currently unopposed)

District 8: Nancy Pelosi (D)-inc (currently unopposed)

District 9: Barbara Lee (D)-inc vs. Charles Hargrave (R)

District 10: Ellen Tauscher (D)-inc (currently unopposed)

District 12: OPEN: ??? (D) (currently unopposed)

District 13: Pete Stark (D)-inc (currently unopposed)

District 14: Anna Eshoo (D)-inc (currently unopposed)

District 15: Michael Honda (D)-inc (currently unopposed)

District 16: Zoe Lofgren (D)-inc (currently unopposed)

District 17: Sam Farr (D)-inc (currently unopposed)

District 18: Dennis Cardoza (D)-inc (currently unopposed)

District 19: George Radanovich (R)-inc (currently unopposed)

District 20: Jim Costa (D)-inc vs. Jim Lopez (R)

District 21: Devin Nunes (R)-inc (currently unopposed)

District 22: Kevin McCarthy (R)-inc vs. Sharon Beery? (D)

District 23: Lois Capps (D)-inc (currently unopposed)

District 24: Elton Gallegly? (R)-inc vs. ??? (D)

District 25: Buck McKeon (R)-inc (currently unopposed)

District 26: David Dreier (R)-inc vs. ??? (D)

District 27: Brad Sherman (D)-inc (currently unopposed)

District 28: Howard Berman (D)-inc (currently unopposed)

District 29: Adam Schiff (D)-inc vs. Charles Hahn (R)

District 30: Henry Waxman (D)-inc (currently unopposed)

District 31: Xavier Becerra (D)-inc (currently unopposed)

District 32: Hilda Solis (D)-inc (currently unopposed)

District 33: Diane Watson (D)-inc (currently unopposed)

District 34: Lucille Royball-Allard (D)-inc (currently unopposed)

District 35: Maxine Waters (D)-inc (currently unopposed)

District 36: Jane Harman (D)-inc (currently unopposed)

District 37: OPEN: Laura Richardson (D) vs. John Kanaley (R)

District 38: Grace Napolitano (D)-inc (currently unopposed)

District 39: Linda Sanchez (D)-inc (currently unopposed)

District 40: Edward Royce (R)-inc (currently unopposed)

District 41: Jerry Lewis (R)-inc vs. Tim Prince (D) - possibly competitive

District 42: Gary Miller (R)-inc vs. Edwin Chau (D)

District 43: Joe Baca? (D)-inc vs. Scott Folkens (R)

District 44: Kenneth Calvert (R)-inc vs. ??? (D)

District 45: Mary Bono (R)-inc vs. David Roth (D)

District 46: Dana Rohrabacher (R)-inc (currently unopposed)

District 47: Loretta Sanchez (D)-inc (currently unopposed)

District 48: John Campbell (R)-inc (currently unopposed)

District 49: Darrell Issa (R)-inc (currently unopposed)

District 50: Brian Bilbray (R)-inc vs. ??? (D)

District 51: Bob Filner (D)-inc (currently unopposed)

District 52: OPEN: ??? (R) vs. ??? (D)

District 53: Susan Davis (D)-inc vs. Delecia Ann Holt (R)

Election Timeline

February 5, 2008 - Presidential primary

March 7, 2008 - Deadline to file for candidacy

June 3, 2008 - Primary elections

November 4, 2008 - Election day

Current Partisan Breakdown

National Delegation
Senators	2 DEM
Representatives	19 GOP, 33 DEM, 1 vacant
State Government
Governor	GOP
Lt. Governor	DEM
State Senate - DEM control	15 GOP, 25 DEM
State House - DEM control	32 GOP, 48 DEM

Current Office Holders

Governor: Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) - 2nd term, up for re-election in 2010

Lt. Governor: John Garamendi (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2010

Senior Senator: Dianne Feinstein (D) - 4th term, up for re-election in 2012

Junior Senator: Barbara Boxer (D) - 3rd term, up for re-election in 2010

House District 1: Michael Thompson (D) - 5th term

House District 2: Wally Herger (R) - 11th term

House District 3: Daniel Lungren (R) - 7th term

House District 4: John Doolittle (R) - 9th term (retiring)

House District 5: Doris Matsui (D) - 2nd term

House District 6: Lynn Woolsey (D) - 8th term

House District 7: George Miller (D) - 17th term (might retire)

House District 8: Nancy Pelosi (D) - 11th term

House District 9: Barbara Lee (D) - 5th term

House District 10: Ellen Tauscher (D) - 6th term

House District 11: Jerry McNerney (D) - 1st term

House District 12: Tom Lantos (D) - 14th term (retiring)

House District 13: Pete Stark (D) - 18th term (might retire)

House District 14: Anna Eshoo (D) - 8th term

House District 15: Michael Honda (D) - 4th term

House District 16: Zoe Lofgren (D) - 7th term

House District 17: Sam Farr (D) - 8th term

House District 18: Dennis Cardoza (D) - 3rd term

House District 19: George Radanovich (R) - 7th term

House District 20: Jim Costa (D) - 2nd term

House District 21: Devin Nunes (R) - 3rd term

House District 22: Kevin McCarthy (R) - 1st term

House District 23: Lois Capps (D) - 5th term

House District 24: Elton Gallegly (R) - 12th term (might retire)

House District 25: Buck McKeon (R) - 8th term

House District 26: David Dreier (R) - 14th term (might retire)

House District 27: Brad Sherman (D) - 6th term

House District 28: Howard Berman (D) - 13th term (might retire)

House District 29: Adam Schiff (D) - 4th term

House District 30: Henry Waxman (D) - 17th term (might retire)

House District 31: Xavier Becerra (D) - 8th term

House District 32: Hilda Solis (D) - 4th term

House District 33: Diane Watson (D) - 4th term

House District 34: Lucille Royball-Allard (D) - 8th term

House District 35: Maxine Waters (D) - 9th term

House District 36: Jane Harman (D) - 4th term

House District 37: vacant
Juanita Millender-McDonald (D) died on April 22, 2007 during her 7th term.

House District 38: Grace Napolitano (D) - 5th term (might retire)

House District 39: Linda Sanchez (D) - 3rd term

House District 40: Edward Royce (R) - 7th term

House District 41: Jerry Lewis (R) - 15th term

House District 42: Gary Miller (R) - 5th term

House District 43: Joe Baca (D) - 5th term

House District 44: Kenneth Calvert (R) - 8th term

House District 45: Mary Bono (R) - 5th term

House District 46: Dana Rohrabacher (R) - 10th term

House District 47: Loretta Sanchez (D) - 6th term

House District 48: John Campbell (R) - 2nd term

House District 49: Darrell Issa (R) - 4th term

House District 50: Brian Bilbray (R) - 2nd term

House District 51: Bob Filner (D) - 8th term

House District 52: Duncan Hunter (R) - 14th term (running for President)

House District 53: Susan Davis (D) - 4th term

Historical Partisan Snapshot

Race 2000 Result 2002 Result 2004 Result 2006 Result

President Strong DEM -- Mod DEM --

Senate

Class 1 Solid DEM -- -- Solid DEM

Class 3 -- -- Solid DEM --

Governor -- Mod DEM -- Solid GOP

House 20 GOP - 32 DEM 20 GOP - 33 DEM 20 GOP - 33 DEM 19 GOP - 34 DEM

CD-1 Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM

CD-2 Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP

CD-3 Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP

CD-4 Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP Weak GOP

CD-5 Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM

CD-6 Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM

CD-7 Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM

CD-8 Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM

CD-9 Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM

CD-10 Mod DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM

CD-11 Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP Mod DEM

CD-12 Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM

CD-13 Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM

CD-14 Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM

CD-15 Strong DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM

CD-16 Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM

CD-17 Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM

CD-18 Solid DEM Mod DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM

CD-19 Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP

CD-20 Mod DEM Solid DEM Mod DEM Solid DEM

CD-21 Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP

CD-22 Mod DEM Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP

CD-23 Strong GOP Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM

CD-24 Solid DEM Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP

CD-25 Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP

CD-26 Solid DEM Solid GOP Strong GOP Solid GOP

CD-27 Mod DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM

CD-28 Solid GOP Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM

CD-29 Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM

CD-30 Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM

CD-31 Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM

CD-32 Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM

CD-33 Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM

CD-34 Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM

CD-35 Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM

CD-36 Weak DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM

CD-37 Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM

CD-38 Weak GOP Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM

CD-39 Solid GOP Strong DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM

CD-40 Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP

CD-41 Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP

CD-42 Solid DEM Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP

CD-43 Solid GOP Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM

CD-44 Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP

CD-45 Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP

CD-46 Solid DEM Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP

CD-47 Solid GOP Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM

CD-48 Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP

CD-49 Weak DEM Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP

CD-50 Solid DEM Solid GOP Solid GOP Strong GOP

CD-51 Solid GOP Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM

CD-52 Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP

CD-53 NA Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM

BOLD - party turnover
Party changes not bolded resulted from redistricting before the 2002 election.

Race ratings:

"Weak" - less than 5%
"Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
"Strong" - 10% to 15%
"Solid" - greater than 15%